summer cup discussion and gallery

  • Winning_Post
  • New Member
  • New Member
  • Thanks: 0

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421451
Free State has been issued a (RED) weather warning for severe thunderstorms and Gauteng have been issued (AMBER) warnings for moderate - severe thunderstorms. Precipitation is expected (60% chance) to fall late afternoon (29th NOV 13) and overnight (10mm). Tomorrow morning looks bright and sunny until approx. 11:30am when a weather system will be moving from the south-west over the Turffontein Race track (and JHB of course). Conditions are expected to be very overcast with moderate winds. Rain is expected around 14:00pm tomorrow afternoon with a 60% chance of showers and again 10mm of rainfall. Severe thunderstorms will affect racing tomorrow from about 16:45pm which is not great news for the running of the SummerCup, Races 1 - 5 look all good to go but I would expect a delay to proceedings thereafter and perhaps some races being abandoned. My suggestion is find runners who enjoy wetter conditions like GOLD ONYX (NZ) or whomever...

Good Luck to all, btw. I'm not a weather man, just have a really reliable contact working at the JWS (formely - not sure what it's called now) and the info has been correct 90% of the time, so play cautious and good luck to all!!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Frodo
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 13136
  • Thanks: 3038

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421461
For those with lots of patience - my take on the runners:


1 – Wylie Hall
Best horse in the race along with Whiteline Fever (according to the handicapper that is); unfortunately for him this is a handicap and he really seems handicapped out of it; on the positive side he is one of only 2 runners in the field to have won over 2000m
Ability on soft ground: Won the Derby Trial in soft conditions, so should be as effective on soft ground as on good
Top 6: Unlikely Top 4: Very unlikely

2 – Whiteline Fever
Mostly the same problem as Wylie Hall – but has drawn wider and still seems more effective over a shorter trip
Ability on soft ground: Has won on soft ground, and also ran a short-head behind Slumdogmillionaire in yielding conditions – so could be slightly better on soft ground as opposed to good
Top 6: Unlikely Top 4: Very unlikely

3 – Cherry on the Top
Top filly in the race, but also suffers from being badly handicapped – she has ‘earned’ her rating by beating the same fillies at level weights in the Gauteng classics at level weights earlier in the year (but was beaten convincingly by Do You Remember in the Woolavington); at best seems on par with the badly handicapped Wylie Hall and Whiteline Fever
Ability on soft ground: Unknown – she was beaten in her only try on soft ground, but was also reported ‘in season’ on the day
Top 6: Unlikely Top 4: Very unlikely


4 - Royal Zulu Warrior
Surprised a lot of pundits when holding off Glorious Jet to win the November Handicap (Charity Mile) in his first try over more than 1400; jury is out on whether he will get the extra 400m, but has some stamina on his dam side while his sire has also won at a high level over ground; not without a chance if he sees it out, which is going to be more of a challenge if the ground is wet or sticky on the day
Ability on soft ground: Seems to prefer soft ground, has been unplaced only once on soft ground and that was over 1200 in July
Top 6: Likely Top 4: Possibly

5 – Astro News
A bit lucky to get into the race in my opinion; but not a lot between him and Whiteline Fever on their runs in the July; ran behind Wagner in this race last year and is worse off at the weights; looks to have a lot to find to feature
Ability on soft ground: Has never won on soft ground, so seems better on good ground
Top 6: Very unlikely


6 – Knock on Wood
Solid handicapper who has run 2nd to Heavy Metal at level weights in the Champions (Administrators) Cup over this trip in April, finishing in front of Whiteline Fever (now 1.5 kg’s worse off with Knock on Wood) and current favorite Ilha Bela (now 3 kg’s better off with Knock on Wood); as such must come in with something of a place chance imo with the underrated Ian Sturgeon in the irons
Ability on soft ground: No problems with soft ground, has only been unplaced twice out of 7 efforts in yielding conditions
Top 6: Likely Top 4: Possibly


7 – Smanjemanje
Seems past his bets and very lucky to get into the race imo courtesy of winning a moderate looking handicap at the end of October – would have to repeat his best effort in the last 12 months (finishing just more than 5 lengths behind Pomodoro at level weights) to finish in the top half of the field imo
Ability on soft ground: Seems better on good ground, has only won once (and been unplaced 6 times) in soft going
Top 6: Very unlikely

8 – Jet Belle
Scratched


9 – Gold Onyx
Also somewhat lucky to make the field imo – best form has been at Greyville and ‘boasts’ only one win and no places from 7 efforts at this track – looks to have his work cut out to finish in the top half of the field
Ability on soft ground: Better on good ground – only has 2 places from 7 tries in the soft
Top 6: Very unlikely


10 - Cherry on the Cake
Can’t really see how this filly got into the race – beat Ilha Bela by less than a length in March and is now 8kg’s worse off with her – not difficult to see why she is the biggest outsider in the field
Ability on soft ground: Has had 1 win out of 3 tries on soft ground
Top 6: Very unlikely


11 – Glorious Jet
One of the best handicapped runners in the race imo – has never won over 2000, but has put up 2 seconds over the trip running on; often sluggish into stride, so the 20 draw probably not that big a disadvantage (and anyway Formation won this race from draw 16 while both Rudra and Il Sanpietro came close to winning from draw 20); 1.5 kg’s better off with Ilha Bela for a 1.35 length beating over 1800 (when losing 2 to 3 lengths at the start, and also 1 kg better off with Royal Zulu Warrior for a 0.75 length beating when running on in the November Handicap (Charity Mile)
Ability on soft ground: Has not won on soft ground, but has 3 places (including a 2nd over this trip) from 4 tries in the soft – so gives the impression that soft ground does not worry him
Top 6: Very likely Top 4: Likely


12 – Yorker
Also looks quite well in and comes with a big reputation; possibly just needed his last run behind Royal Zulu Warrior in the November Handicap (Charity Mile); however there does remain some doubt about his ability to get the 2000 as he has only won up to 1600 – weighted to finish right next to Royal Zulu Warrior and Glorious Jet (if Anton Marcus can get down to 54.5 kg’s), so not surprising imo that he has drifted to more realistic odds of 8/1; especially as he is an unknown factor in soft conditions, which could very well be the case come race day
Ability on soft ground: Unknown – has not run on soft ground before
Top 6: Likely Top 4: Possibly


13 – Royal Bencher
Looks ideally prepared after coming back to the track after a rest of more than a year in early October; has been given a real break by the handicapper and on a line through his last run when drawn 15 out of 16, is now weighted to finish right next to Tiger’s Retreat, Master Sabina and Ilha Bela – so also not much of a surprise that he is now trading as short as 12/1
Ability on soft ground: At lease as effective on soft ground as on good – has won twice out of 4 tries in the soft
Top 6: Very likely Top 4: Likely


14 – Tiger’s Retreat
Surprised with a gutsy in the Victory Moon Stakes, holding off Master Sabina, who looked sure to collar him going into the last 100; does not seem to be much between him, Master Sabina, Ilha Bela and Royal Bencher at the weights and could see out the extra 200 if ridden a little more patiently
Ability on soft ground: Unknown; has not really had the opportunity to prove himself on soft ground; he was well beaten in October 2012 on soft ground behind Emperor Augustus, but he also had steels on that occasion, was clearly expected to need the run
Top 6: Very likely Top 4: Likely


15 – Gothic
Considered lucky by some to get into the race, however at the weights he has every chance of finishing in front of Wylie Hall and extending that logic, also in front of Whiteline Fever and Cherry on the Cake; has been suffering from breathing issues, but a tongue tie goes on, so who knows – at 40/1 not the worst value in the race
Ability on soft ground: At first glance it does look as if her prefers good ground as his record shows only 2 places from 5 tries in the soft – however he did run a close 4th the Wylie Hall in the Derby Trial in the soft, and in his latest poor effort in the soft behind Kindle, could be attributed to his breathing problems and not his inability to handle the soft ground – so soft ground probably not a worry for him
Top 6: Possibly Top 4: Unlikely


16 – Master Sabina
This 4 yr old Jet Master colt does seem to have very little against him; his preparation looks to have gone according to plan and he should be able to turn around his short-head defeat by Tiger’s Retreat as he came from quite far back early on that race and also is now ½ kg better off in the weights; only slight concern is that he has never gone 2000m and while he really moved up like a winner in that race, he then failed to get the better of Tiger’s Retreat – so just perhaps the 2000m could be just a tad far?
Ability on soft ground: Loves soft ground – has 2 wins out of 3 tries in the soft and his unplaced effort came in his debut effort over 1200
Top 6: Almost certainly Top 4: Very likely


17 – Tellina
A bit of an enigma – winner of the Gauteng Guineas and controversial runner-up in the SA Classic behind Love Struck, but the subsequent form of the horses that he beat in those races does not really look that great and he is held by Gothic on the SA Derby form. Also he was never in the race when beaten more than 11 lengths by Royal Zulu Warrior in the November Handicap (Charity Mile).However he has found lots of betting support to be trading as short as 10/1, so he must be showing something back home (or possibly because Glen Hatt is in the irons) and the likely soft conditions should suit ideally
Ability on soft ground: Loves soft ground – won once and placed twice out of 3 tries in the soft, including the unlucky 2nd in the SA Classic
Top 6: Possibly Top 4: Unlikely


18 – Ilha Bela
Would be a popular winner as she would be repeating the heroics of her dam who won this race in breathtaking fashion from draw 17 in 2005; her preparation looks to be spot on she was running on all the time when 3rd behind Tiger’s Retreat and Master Sabina in the Victory Moon; she is weighted to finish at least alongside those; like one of her main rivals Master Sabina, she has not won over 2000m and she might just be at her best over 1800
Ability on soft ground: At least as effective on soft ground as on good – has 2 wins and 2 places out of 6 tries on soft ground
Top 6: Almost certainly Top 4: Very likely


19 – Wagner
Last year’s surprise winner and he would cause another shock should he be able to rise to the occasion again; probably only got into the race because of his win last year, as he has not done a lot since that win; got another 3 point hike in MR for running 3rd (finishing less than half a length in front of Moon of Rangoon and Arctic Sun) in what looked to be a very moderate Johannesburg Spring Challenge, so would need to run out of his skin to finish in the top half of the field
Ability on soft ground: Better on good ground; only one win from 4 tries in the soft
Top 6: Very unlikely


20 – Killua Castle
Has come to light recently with some excellent efforts on the sand, and ran very well when running 3rd, only 3 lengths behind Royal Zulu Warrior in the November Handicap (Charity Mile); he is weighted to finish right next to that one here, and as such must be given some sort of chance; however he did not seem to be finding a lot towards the end on that race and as such his ability to get the 2000m looks in doubt
Ability on soft ground: Could be better on good ground – has had one win from three tries in soft going, but was beaten 5 lengths by Tellina on soft ground (although drawn wide) in the SA Classic
Top 6: Possibly Top 4: Unlikely

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 82507
  • Thanks: 6460

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421463
Brilliant Frodo, thanks bud

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Winning_Post
  • New Member
  • New Member
  • Thanks: 0

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421506
What the Cup is really all about as posted in The Citizen 29th November 2013

1. WYLIE HALL - Top horse but this four-year-old will have to be an equine superstar to win with joint top weight. In his favour is jockey S'mango Khumalo, whose mounts in big races have turned to gold in the last year.

2. WHITELINE FEVER - High-quality gelding everybody would love to own. This tough 2000m distance should be just too far for him, but if anybody can get him to stay it will be jockey Piere Stydom. Slow pace will help them.

3. CHERRY ON THE TOP - Champion three-year-old filly last season, loves turffontein and there's not much her trainer Ormond Ferraris doesn't know about winning big races. But she's got a huge weight to carry.

4. ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR - Seven-year old. Has overcome leg problems and looked sensational since being raced beyond 1200m. Now goes beyond 1600m for the first time and there's no reason he shouldn'y stay. Watch out if he does.

5. ASTRO NEWS - Solid performer and finished a close fourth behind Wagner in last year's Summer Cup. But the opposition tomorrow is much hotter than in 2012 and he may battle against the big guns when it matters.

6. KNOCK ON WOOD - Also trained by Ferraris and a second in the Champions Challenge over this 2000m course and distance in April means you cannot ignore him. That said we wouldn't advise backing him.

7. SMANJEMANJE - Was unlucky not to beat Pomodoro in the 2012 Durban July. Hasn'y done as well since, but did win last time which indicates that an operations to correct a breathing problem has paid off. He's dangerous.

8. SCRATCHED

9. GOLD ONYX - One of three Sean Tarry runners. Best runs in Durban rather than Joburg, so he has been trained there fo this race and that's a clever move which may pay dividends. Have a place bet.

10. CHERRY ON THE CAKE - Classy six-year-old mare with solid form against her own sex. But she ran a shocker in the Victory Moon Stakes following a rest and she's drawn wide. That's why she's the biggest outsider in the race.

11. GLORIOUS JET - Breeder, owner and trainer St John Gray's runners are hot, hot, hot at the moment and this gelding was a good second to Royal Zulu Warrior (2ks worse off) in the Charity Mile. Expect a good run.

12. YORKER - Ran a fair race in the 1600m Charity Mile after a rest and this late-maturing four-year-old can make plenty of improvement. But he faded in his one start over 2000m and there are doubts if he will stay.

13. ROYAL BENCHER - Sidelined by a hip problem for more than a year and forget about his three runs since his comeback because he wasn't fully fit. He's at a peak now, has ability and the right weight. Fight out the finish.

14. TIGER'S RETREAT - Stamped himself as a big contender for the Cup with a narrow but merit-laden victory over Master Sabina and Ilha Bela in the Victory Moon Stakes over 1800m. Bit further now but should stay.

15. GOTHIC - Has the makings of a top marathon runner and it's likely that he will find this distance too short. But he's well weighted on his best form and if there's a fast pace he could prove a lucrative place bet.

16. MASTER SABINA - This son of champion sire Jet Master has long has a bright future and confirmed his potential with a great second in the Victory Moon Stakes. It will be a surprise if he's not in contention at the finish.

17. - TELLINA - One of the top three-year-olds of last season, but dissapointed in his return from a rest in The Charity Mile in which he never got anywhere near the leaders. Horses do have bad runs but it's hard to fancy him.

18. ILHA BELA - Small grey mare who packs plenty of punch. Great third in the Victory Moon Stakes, is trained by "Cup King" Mike de Kock and her mother won the race a few years back. She's got all the winning ingriedients.

19. WAGNER - Led from start to finish to win last year's Cup. But he has not won since, faces stronger opposition than a year ago and ran downfield in the Charity Mile in his last start when he was coughing. Little appeal.

20. KILLUA CASTLE - Small gelding but he's not short of abilityand stayed on strongly to finish third behind Royal Zulu Warrior and Glorious Jet in The Charity Mile. There's 400m further to go now.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Frodo
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 13136
  • Thanks: 3038

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421552
What do you guys think about the pace?

Taking into account the draw and styles of running, I've come up with the following:

3 horses will be likely pace setters - Cherry on the Cake, Wagner and Royal Zulu Warrior

4 others will be handy just behind the pace - Cherry on the Top, Astro News, Yorker and Royal Bencher

4 others will follow them sort of midfield - Wylie Hall, Whiteline Fever, Smanjemanje and Ilha Bela

The next 5 will be in the second half of the field - Knock on Wood, Gold Onyx, Tiger's Retreat, Master Sabina and Killua Castle

The backmarkers will be Gothic, Glorious Jet and Tellina

Seeing that there are at least 7 runners who would like to be handy, I think there will be a decent pace :S Coming to the last 400, I expect Royal Zulu Warrior, Yorker and Royal Bencher and maybe Cherry on the Top to be in the leading bunch, closely followed by Ilha Bela, Tiger's Retreat, Killua Castle and Master Sabina with Wylie Hall, Whiteline Fever and Knock on Wood trying to get there - Glorious Jet, Gothic and Tellina still a few lengths back

The question of course is who will be in front at the post ::o


The question of course is who will be in front at the post :D

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Marsellus Wallace
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 3350
  • Thanks: 140

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421562
when they get tired Astro News will toss them a length to share(:P)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Winning_Post
  • New Member
  • New Member
  • Thanks: 0

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421602
keniza999 Wrote:
> when they get tired Astro News will toss them a
> length to share(:P)

I believe he's a massive runner, especially when you look at last years race Astro News was 2nd last around the turn and finished 1.25 lengths behind the winner and 6.25 lengths in front of Ilha Bela, this year Astro News is 3.5kgs worse off but I don't believe that equals a 6.25 length margin and Ilha Bela is favorite... paper indicates shes well handicapped here but me thinks some people shud look a little closer, Astro News a definite runner (tu)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Frodo
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 13136
  • Thanks: 3038

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421605
Winning_Post Wrote:
> keniza999 Wrote:
>
>
> > when they get tired Astro News will toss them a
> > length to share(:P)
>
> I believe he's a massive runner, especially when
> you look at last years race Astro News was 2nd
> last around the turn and finished 1.25 lengths
> behind the winner and 6.25 lengths in front of
> Ilha Bela, this year Astro News is 3.5kgs worse
> off but I don't believe that equals a 6.25 length
> margin and Ilha Bela is favorite... paper
> indicates shes well handicapped here but me thinks
> some people shud look a little closer, Astro News
> a definite runner (tu)


By 'some people' I assume you mean me :D

For me Astro News not in the race - but I have been wrong once or twice before ::o

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • mr hawaii
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 20065
  • Thanks: 2653

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421612
Frodo Wrote:
> Winning_Post Wrote:
>
>
> > keniza999 Wrote:
> >
>
>
> >
> > > when they get tired Astro News will toss them
> a
> > > length to share(:P)
> >
> > I believe he's a massive runner, especially
> when
> > you look at last years race Astro News was 2nd
> > last around the turn and finished 1.25 lengths
> > behind the winner and 6.25 lengths in front of
> > Ilha Bela, this year Astro News is 3.5kgs worse
> > off but I don't believe that equals a 6.25
> length
> > margin and Ilha Bela is favorite... paper
> > indicates shes well handicapped here but me
> thinks
> > some people shud look a little closer, Astro
> News
> > a definite runner (tu)
>
>
> By 'some people' I assume you mean me :D
>
> For me Astro News not in the race - but I have
> been wrong once or twice before ::o


I'm with you on Astro Frodo - I have no confidence in that stable and think perhaps their better chance could be in the Fillies Guineas

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Marsellus Wallace
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 3350
  • Thanks: 140

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421616
Frodo what rating you think Astro News ran to in the july?

one thing we know for sure he can stay

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • pirates
  • New Member
  • New Member
  • Thanks: 0

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421619
as per the nhra website the pen reading is 24 going good...had 39mm in last 7 days of which 9 fell in the last 24 hours...at least they update the website unlike the geezer in dbn who doesnt even after speaking to him on several ocassions

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Frodo
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 13136
  • Thanks: 3038

Re: Re: summer cup discussion

11 years 6 months ago
#421636
mr hawaii Wrote:
> Frodo Wrote:
>
>
> > Winning_Post Wrote:
> >
>
>
> >
> > > keniza999 Wrote:
> > >
> >
>
>
> >
> > >
> > > > when they get tired Astro News will toss
> them
> > a
> > > > length to share(:P)
> > >
> > > I believe he's a massive runner, especially
> > when
> > > you look at last years race Astro News was
> 2nd
> > > last around the turn and finished 1.25
> lengths
> > > behind the winner and 6.25 lengths in front
> of
> > > Ilha Bela, this year Astro News is 3.5kgs
> worse
> > > off but I don't believe that equals a 6.25
> > length
> > > margin and Ilha Bela is favorite... paper
> > > indicates shes well handicapped here but me
> > thinks
> > > some people shud look a little closer, Astro
> > News
> > > a definite runner (tu)
> >
> >
> > By 'some people' I assume you mean me :D
> >
> > For me Astro News not in the race - but I have
> > been wrong once or twice before ::o
>
>
> I'm with you on Astro Frodo - I have no confidence
> in that stable and think perhaps their better
> chance could be in the Fillies Guineas


I think you mean the Fillies Mile - if so I'm with you as she won't be stopping when some of the others might (tu)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.118 seconds

Contact Details

Main Office (HQ)
PO Box 40390
Moreleta Park
Pretoria
0044
+27 (0) 82 785 4357
info@africanbettingclan.com

About A.B.C.

African Betting Clan is established for the upliftment of the sports punter, who enjoys a bet on horse racing, football and other sports, enabling them to voice their views and opinions on all aspects of the sport of their choice, free of charge.

Learn More

T's & C's

The views expressed on this website are not necessarily the views held by the proprietors of the site. Therefore African Betting Clan will not be responsible for any content posted. No persons under the age of 18 years are permitted to gamble. National Responsible Gambling Programme and its toll-free number (0800 006 008)