summer cup discussion and gallery

So because it is a weak field we don't count it as a graded race anymore. :S

still getting nightmares from last summercup...after listening to azzie in the box i took out shogunner and banked brooks club....pa gone....would have caught it 12 times with R128 perm.....paid a whopping 66k......never change your origanal bet you decided on.....this year another humdinger bomb day awaits....some horses already did hit their peak run(just to get into their respected races) and saturday will see a lot not performing to betting market and some already had a hard campaign just to qualify......

hope to get a big one someday.....

Tipster Wrote:

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> Muhtiman Wrote:
>

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>

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> > .....let me clarify the above.....none of that
> lot
> > are true stayers 2450m is a trip that was too
> far
> > for most of them.....
>
> The Derby Trial is a better pointer to the Summer
> Cup ... the same course and distance. Gothic 5,5kg
> better off for a 1,75 length beating by Wylie
> Hall, who is quoted at 8-1 (:S).

Not sold on either of them.....they may finish on top of each other mid field.....counting on the going being slightly sticky an afternoon or late night shower or two should do.....the pace being modererate and giving those at the bottom of the handicap 55kg and below a chance at running at the rest of the range bound pack...:

Come ziets gooi us a winner swaer.

We all want to give a BOOOOOOM!!!!

shrek Wrote:

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> So because it is a weak field we don't count it as
> a graded race anymore. :S

It counts just like when sprinters win the Queens Plate through lack of pace.....but one cannot make a case on form when any race is restricted to an age group or sex of performers at level weights not suited to the distance......Wylie Hall is deadly off the medium distances....his ped says he should stay .....but his best performing relatives are some of the best speedsters around....:.....he has a GR1 over 2450m to his name.....cause the rest of them were gasping for air....:S

Race 7 Deconstructed, facts and figures only clanners so no battle hammers please

WEATHER PREDICTION - 20% chance of light rain. THURSDAY 28th NOV 2013 80% chance of thunder showers but Friday the 29th and Sat the 30th look great for racing and conditions should be good.

Let's start by eliminating a couple firstly, the main reason for eliminating these runners is purely based on the draw.

19. WAGNER drawn 13 - Never been a winner from this draw

7. SMAJEMANJE drawn 19 - Never been a winner from this draw

8. JET BELLE drawn 17 - Never been a winner from this draw

10. CHERRY ON THE CAKE drawn 18 - Never been a winner from this draw

11. GLORIOUS JET drawn 20 - Never been a winner from this draw

Second round of elimination only by lowest percentage of wins from draws

13. ROYAL BENCHER drawn 9 - According to win/draw percentages ROYAL BENCHER has a 0.03% chance of winning

15. GOTHIC drawn 15 - According wo win/draw percentages GOTHIC has a 0.03% chance of winning

9. GOLD ONYX (NZ) drawn 12 - According to win/draw percentages GOLD ONYX has a 0.03% chance of winning

3. CHERRY ON THE TOP drawn 16 - According to win/draw percentages CHERRY ON THE TOP has a 0.07% chance of winning

That leaves us with the remaining 11 runners which include ;

WYLIE HALL (AUS) - WHITELINE FEVER - ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR (AUS) - ASTRO NEWS - KNOCK ON WOOD - YORKER - TIGER'S RETREAT - MASTER SABINA - TELLINA - ILHA BELA - KILLUA CASTLE (AUS)

1. WYLIE HALL (AUS) - 3rd run after a rest, course and distance record 100%, he has a phenomenal record after 6 runs at Turffontein including 3 wins and 2 places. He may have just needed he's last run (2nd run after a rest) and he's run on the 06th July 2013 was run in the softer conditions which he didn't enjoy. Khumalo retains the ride and shoulders 60.00 kg's. 75% of WYLIE HALL's (AUS) career wins have come when drawn in the first 5.
Positives - Jockey, Draw, Distance suited, Course record, Conditions, 3rd run after a rest
Negatives - Weight (Not taking into account GOTHIC cause i've already eliminated him as a contender) he's 3.5 kg's better off (ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR (AUS)) for a 5.00 length beating - Not enough IMO to reverse the form.
CONCLUSION - Strong chance of winning and I would be very surprised if he didn't finish in the top 3, must be considered with Khumalo aboard as he will be looking for a double with WAGNER (2012) and WYLIE HALL (2013)

2. WHITELINE FEVER - 4th run after a rest, finished 6th last year when beaten 2.75 lengths by a surprise winner WAGNER who is 0.5 kg's better off at the weights but already eliminated as a contender due to statistics. WHITELINE FEVER was also drawn 14 in 2012 which is interesting but gets a pilot whom we all know so well in the form of STRYDOM. He's course record isn't great with only 1 win in 12 attempts but remains a solid PA selection as he's placed in 8 of his attempts. WHITELINE FEVEN has tried the distance twice at Turffontein and placed once when beaten by HEAVY METAL. He finds himself at level weights with WYLIE HALL and 3.00 kg's better off with ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR (AUS) for a 4.25 length beating however has a draw that is questionable.
Positives - Jockey, Conditions
Negatives - Course record, Distance, Draw, Weight
CONCLUSION - Will battle to reverse the form with a few others namely WYLIE HALL and ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR (AUS) and will be staying on more than anything the last 400m, strong place chance (first 6)

4. ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR (AUS) - Like WYLIE HALL he has a 50% win record at Turffontein winning two of his four attemps and placing once. One can assume he's had he's fair share of problems and is lightly raced as a 7 year old only competing in 11 races of which 5 have been features. He's having he's second 3rd run after a rest and is looking for his 3rd consecutive finish in the winners box, he remains the only horse in the race to have competed in 5 consecutive features in a row and will now be competing in his 6th consecutive feature. Many were surprised when he won over 1600m at 25/1 when competing in the Charity Mile however he's Sire won over a distance of 2050m which would have been nice to know before the running of the Charity Mile, lol. He's last three wins (50% of his career wins) have come from a draw of 8 on the nose :S which is interesting if you're a statistics influenced punter like myself because he remains the only horse in the field with the same number on his back as he's draw which is weird because he's number is 4 and he's drawn 4 and when added equals 8. Strange game this sometime but let me continue... Blinkers seemed to be a mistake when fitted for races on the 27th April 2013 and 25th May 2013 and he's run on the 13th July 2013 was all wrong and conditions (Yielding) didn't suite him either. Although he hasn't contested against some of the runners this year he remains unbeaten by the runners whom he has competed against including; GLORIOUS JET, KILLUA CASTLE, WHITELINE FEVER, YORKER, CHERRY ON THE TOP, WYLIE HALL, TELLINA and WAGNER albeit there are weight turn-arounds but nothing significant besides GLORIOUS JET who's 0.50 kg's better off (0.75 length beating) but drawn 20.
Positives - Jockey retention, Draw, Conditions, Weight, Course record, 3rd run after a rest, Lightly raced
Negatives - Distance, Fitness, 7 Year Old
CONCLUSION - Albeit a few weight turn-arounds, ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR (AUS) must be respected and we all witnessed as he's price fell from a delicious 150/1 ANTE POST betting. A contender nevertheless with major concerns over distance but the same was said when stepping up from the 1450m penultimate run to his last run over 1600m and we all witnessed what happended that day. Another big increase of 400m in distance will test any stamina concerns and if he happens to get the distance it could all be over at the 200m mark. If you're willing to PAY to STAY then this is your horse but be warned that failure at the 400m will see him contesting the last two positions.

To be continued... My fingers are a little numb and there's still another 8 runners to get done.

Here is a bio of Wylie Hall's black type performing half sibling......

Registered as Genius and Evil in Australia
*Exported to Hong Kong in Aug 2004 and renamed Absolute Champion
. At 2: Won Pago Pago S.(G2-Aus)
At 5: Won Hong Kong Sprint(G1-HK,5.97fT)
At 6: Won Centenary Sprint Cup (HK-GI,1.000m-T, Sha Tin);2nd Hong Kong Sprint (G1)

Euthanised after breaking off fore fetlock in KrisFlyer International Sprint in Singapore 18/5/08.

Gothic deserves to be in this race and is a big runner, the azzman was just emotional
I'm surprised none of them liked Astro News but then I must thank them cos I'm now getting a good price
Tarry is a clued up man, I can listen to him the whole day
This has to be toughest race on the card and none of the runners can be written off.....

keniza999 Wrote:

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> Gothic deserves to be in this race and is a big
> runner, the azzman was just emotional
> I'm surprised none of them liked Astro News but
> then I must thank them cos I'm now getting a good
> price
> Tarry is a clued up man, I can listen to him the
> whole day
> This has to be toughest race on the card and none
> of the runners can be written off.....

They all had plenty to say aboput Astro News.....has seen more trainers and racecourses than any other horse in the race.....when they say this horse travels well ......they dont mean in a race .....but in a horse box.....

nice to hear a top class panel put their opinions out there for all to hear ...muhti got no idea how old you are but come out the closet and make your impact on sa racing in whatever sphere it might be as from what i can see a few palookas out there who making money out the game who quite frankly are fcuking embarrasing but know what to say when and are great at creeping up prominent owners backsides

pirates Wrote:

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> nice to hear a top class panel put their opinions
> out there for all to hear ...muhti got no idea how
> old you are but come out the closet and make your
> impact on sa racing in whatever sphere it might be
> as from what i can see a few palookas out there
> who making money out the game who quite frankly
> are fcuking embarrasing but know what to say when
> and are great at creeping up prominent owners
> backsides

.....little younger than Mike Azzie, but same age as his wife.....but slightly older than David Ferraris....know what racing was like.....has become....and where it is going.....gave it a good bash and applied for every job that was openly advertised....