keniza999 Wrote:
> bayern Wrote:
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> > > > > bayern Wrote:
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> > > > > > TNaicker Wrote:
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> > > > > > > CA was the only horse handy that
> stayed
> > > > > > on...all
> > > > > > > the others that were handy faded and
> > top
> > > 3
> > > > > came
> > > > > > > from the back...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Let's be honest, in the Derby, the KRA
> > > > Guineas
> > > > > and
> > > > > > the Daily News 2000, CA was given every
> > > > chance
> > > > > at
> > > > > > winning those races. I have two
> theories
> > as
> > > > to
> > > > > why
> > > > > > he won't win the July, maybe he doesn't
> > > stay
> > > > > the
> > > > > > 2000m, and i'm not convinced he is
> suited
> > > to
> > > > > > Greyville, especially judging on he's
> > last
> > > > two
> > > > > > runs. In the Guineas, Legislate dropped
> > him
> > > > like
> > > > > a
> > > > > > hot potatoe, he failed to quicken, and
> in
> > > the
> > > > > DN
> > > > > > 2000, he was relatively handy and again
> > > > failed
> > > > > to
> > > > > > quicken. You be the judge.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bayern, with 54kg up and a better better
> > draw
> > > > than
> > > > > Legislate don't you think he will turn
> > around
> > > > the
> > > > > 1.5l beating? finishing 1.5 lengths
> behind
> > > the
> > > > > winner in gr1 over 2000m to me suggests
> he
> > > > stays.
> > > > > and there's that jockey change factor
> which
> > > can
> > > > > add another length. and then there's the
> > 10/1
> > > > to
> > > > > make the investment worth the risk.
> > Legislate
> > > is
> > > > a
> > > > > decent horse bt imo he's no value bet in
> > this
> > > > > race.
> > > >
> > > > Ken, on paper yes, he can overturn the 1.5
> > > length
> > > > beating, but as we all know horses don't
> run
> > on
> > > > paper. It's a moot point as to whether he
> > stays
> > > > the 2000m, let alone the 2200m. Whilst he
> > might
> > > > have stayed on in the DN 2000, doesn't
> > > necessarily
> > > > mean he sees out the distance. Try and
> watch
> > > the
> > > > race again, what I'd prefer to have seen if
> I
> > > was
> > > > to back CA, was hopefully the horse running
> > on
> > > at
> > > > the finish when others were stopping, that
> > come
> > > on
> > > > look. Whilst you are of the opinion that he
> > > stayed
> > > > on the best amongst the front runners, I
> say
> > > > again, see that in relation to the three
> that
> > > > finished ahead of him, were they stopping
> or
> > > going
> > > > away from him? I agree he is better value
> > than
> > > > Legislate, I don't fancy neither, but it's
> > your
> > > > money and you must take a decision, don't
> let
> > > me
> > > > put you off, if CA is the one you fancy
> then
> > > back
> > > > it, go with your gut feeling.
> > >
> > > its easy for a horse to have a flying finish
> > when
> > > it was actually loafing around at the back of
> > the
> > > field throughout. so the three were flying
> cos
> > > they were idle earlier whereas CA actually
> > raced.
> > > I like pace setters like Variety Club and
> > Capetown
> > > America. So who do you fancy Bayern?
> >
> > Rake's Chestnut.
>
> big runner(tu)
Ken, without realising it, you are answering the puzzle yourself. That's exactly what you want your fancy to do in a race, idle around but stay in touch, so when push comes to shove, s/he still has enough left in the tank to out-sprint/outlast the others, not to empty out before the winning post.
Break a leg.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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) Don't be too technical over weights...good horses can overcome a kg or 3 turnaround in weights. 
-D 
