Kenilworth Saturday 17th Dec

Early thread incase you guys need to get away for the hols

Not sure why Bela would be Fav over SM this trip ?

Bela Bela a machine and I personally feel she is the best bet of the day! Race over, tickets and tax - go stand in the queue! Superman won't miss! :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

In order of preference :-

R7, Africa Rising, his last two efforts, both over 1400m, were from extremely wide draws, and he appeared to be running on at the finish. If he gets away on terms, from draw 2, he should be involved in the finish. This horse opened 12/1 when the betting opened, currently 13/2, was 8/1 earlier today.

R6, Prince Of Wales (22/10), third run after the rest and should take a power of beating. Not so sure Bold Rex (3/1) is well weighted even though he carries 52.0kgs. St Tropez (7/2) hasn't won in a long time, so I'm going to take them on.

R5, Captain's Flame (22/10) is the right on for me. I think most would reference their respective runs to Moon 'N Roses, and although beaten by Moonlight 'N Roses, Captain's Flame conceded 3.5kgs, whereas Chevauchee beat Moonlight 'N Roses at level weights. I'll row in with Captain's Flame.

R3, Mutzi (4/1), to beat stable companion and favourite Captain Courteous (13/10). Captain Courteous is taking on much stronger than he beat in his last two races. Mutzi on the other hand is dropping in class, and whilst coming back in distance, he does tend to race fairly handy, so I'm hoping he won't be done for speed and will be applying the pressure when it matters.

I know what you thinking, Strydom must be the stable elect for Snaith on the day, therefore in races 3 and 6 he should be on the right ones. I tend to tell myself the horses don't know or understand that concept, so follow your gut.

In closing, also feel Bela Bela is the right one, but I'll stay out.

Enjoy the racing.

Race 5 – Chevauchee 22/10

This is a top filly and the mile will be much more to her liking. I rate her a little bit above Captain’s Flame so at level weights, she’s the pick and combined with CF’s last run which I didn’t like at all, I do think Chevauchee will be hard to beat. Looking at the race, I think she’s only got Baritone to beat – won’t be easy but with 5.5kgs less I’m willing to take the chance. She’s a really good filly, never been out the top 2. Super consistent and I really think she’s up there or close enough to the top two fillies – BB and SM.


Cape Guineas – Craven 16/1(now into 8/1), Edict of Nantes 14/1

Craven still very much an unknown quantity – bags of potential. Yes, the mile will possibly be too short but the long run-in will suit him IMO and who knows how good he is at this stage? 16/1 too good of a price for me to ignore. Chris pointed out the similarities between him and Elusive Gold in 2014 so who knows

Edict of Nantes is proven with the best in the Cape and unfortunately has drawn wide however he does tend to race off them so he will be given a chance. He’s won from draw 10/10 in Durbanville so has shown he can cope with bad draws. I still think he’s a massive runner and unlike Table Bay has shown better consistency over his last two races – extremely unlucky in the Cape Classic not to finish closer. 14/1 is an amazing price and I find it hard to see him out the first 4. So I’m gonna be shouting the Crawford runners home and hope one of them takes the prize.

Of the balance, I think it’d be foolish to ignore Table Bay – clearly a top horse and the fast pace may have undone him last time – we’ll have to see. Heavenly Blue is smart but does seem like he’ll be way better over 1800m and more. And obviously Gold Standard must be considered again, along with Singapore Sling. You could make a case for any of these but I’ve went for what I think was the value @ current prices.


Race 8 – Goodtime Gal 11/2

Might not be her best distance but she’s a game sort. Ran a fair 4th over 2200 so I’m hoping she stays the 1800. If she stays, and I think she will if ridden conservatively, then I think she will go very close. Fourie gets on well with her too. Really didn’t like Nightingale’s comeback run – very flat even though over the 1400m so I think GG can beat her. I make Icy Fire the biggest danger.


Race 2 – Varsity Cup 22/10

Must go well now at this level – should prefer the drop back in trip. Could be a welcome-home present for Bernard.

Gold Standard now 9/2 for the Guineas from as big as 12/1

To think he's still 40/1 for the Met when H Blue is only a 14's chance

I have done a fair bit of homework on the Guineas and still can't pick a winner . Even the 50/1 shots that nobody has mentioned would not be a complete shock to me if they went close.
Looking at the recent money for Africa rising ....if he is being backed to 6/1 I'm not surprised at all but I am surprised that Bishops bounty who is at least as good a prospect is at 18/1..

One of those races where you can do very well or kick yourself.

Bob, when will USO be uploaded?

Bold rex onto gold standard good double

Trying to take a double on Hollywoodbets....Guineas onto Met...two different horses...tells me 'related bet'.....WTF

my banker for today @kenilworth is table bay.im not looking for spooks and i think table bay is a racing certainty for the guinneas.i will load the other legs and hope to catch the exotics.5/2 is a gift and i'm climbing in boots and all.

good luck to all

Baritone onto Cape Speed