''Politics over'' who is going to win the JULY????

20 to 1 wrote: Or... Keep Rabada in

Then double is as follows:

Rabada Win this Sunday & place for the big one

Will anyone lay me a double: Rabada to win this weekend onto Rabada not making the top 10 for July day?

Karma wrote: Shrek/Frodo/Bayern, which senario would you pick /prefer?

A) 6month break, 2kg's better off but having a prep?
or
2nd run after a rest, 2 kg's worse off but primed for a feature race?

For me, it would be based on the horse in question, if it is a horse that runs well fresh, then A, otherwise for a horse that needs a run after a break then B

Luck in running is going to be the biggest factor deciding the winner - taking into consideration the narrow entrance to the short straight and the number of horses that seems closely handicapped.

All being equal with no hard luck stories, this would be my short list (in no particular order):

French Navy
Master Sabina
Black Arthur
Rabada
Bela Bela
Solid Speed
Its My Turn

All of the others seems held by a length or two imo

Frodo, my thoughts on your shortlist

French Navy - Will need luck in running. Racing from off the pace won't suit on this tight track
Master Sabina - Think it has more chance than FN
Black Arthur - don't believe it will beat the draw so will have to race wide. If it does beat the draw, then will use up too much energy. Either way not for me
Rabada - I just don't fancy this one
Bela Bela - Good draw. Delpech will place well and will find the rail turning for home. Very confident
Solid Speed - This is the lurker
Its My Turn - Did not fancy it initially, but looking at its last run, and the middle draw may just work in his favor. Big chance

Merp - in response

French Navy did win the Daily News at this track last year.

Rabada - will probably not run, but if he does must have a big chance imo

Black Arthur - I think he will be dropped in and not race wide

But granted, both FN and BA will need a pace, and to me that does not seem likely

Frodo, you're right FN did win the DN last year. I think it was a much better performer last year than this year. Last few runs have either been lacklustre or flying up too late. If he's flying through late, then likely to be hampered. just my thoughts, but respect yours and others' opinions.

What are your thoughts on St. Tropez? I loved his last run and in my opinion has Solid Speed beat on that run. Likely to come on even more. If Marcus sitting on it, I will be very confident.

St Tropez is out with the weights with solid speed , even after running behind solid speed

Bela-Bela
It's My Turn
Solid Speed
Mambo Mime

Only 4 horses I'm putting in the pick 6

My opinion about Solid Speed: has been running against an old age home lately and I am brassing.

For me: French Navy/Bela-Bela/Black Arthur - I know top 3 on the board but some decent prices for doubles and trebles.

Initially I fancied Mambo Mime but no offence I would of liked some confidence with a better jock. My opinion De Melo hasn't had a good season - he is a top jock though no disrespect just not of late.

As for the pace: I think tarry and Snaith both have horses in the race that they can use for this and both are draw near their 'guarded' runner. Anyways, my 3 picks can and have all won from the back of the field before.

Have to agree with avatar - can't see St Tropez finishing in front of Solid Speed - unless of course SS has bad luck in running :ohmy:

Frodo wrote: Have to agree with avatar - can't see St Tropez finishing in front of Solid Speed - unless of course SS has bad luck in running :ohmy:

I know that SS is receiving weight from ST based on last run. However, I cannot ignore that ST was having first run after long break while SS had race fitness. Based on the last run and the horse freshening up, I'm expecting it to be much better over the 2200. Luck in running is off course a factor on this new Greyville circuit. I'm not sold yet.

someone asked about biggest weights if I recall...

Heavy Metal - 59.5kg - 4y
Pocket Power - 58kg - 5y
El Picha - 58kg - 5y
Politician - 57kg - 4y

The biggest weight a 3y old winner had to carry was (I may stand corrected):

Legislate - 56kg
Pomodoro & igugu - 55kg

I have now made my selection. Thanks to all for their comments which I have processed and am now very confident with my first selection.

St. Tropez, I believe has an outstanding chance. Marcus is a master and can overcome the draw if he wants to or sit behind the pace. Either way, I believe ST has what it takes to win the July. I expect improvement since his last run and believe he will turn it around with Solid Speed. For the placing's, I like all of Bela Bela, Samurai Blade, Master Sabina, Rocketball and It's My Turn. Already backed ST @ 11/1 and have doubles, trebles and Yankees with him. Now it's time to focus on that Pick six.