LD's Betting Diary - Chapter 2

however if your new system still insists on the choice being favourite ,your strike rate needs to be close to 100 % to see a fair profit , dont you think ?

colors wrote: however if your new system still insists on the choice being favourite ,your strike rate needs to be close to 100 % to see a fair profit , dont you think ?

A filter I'm looking at is that it needs to be well backed, it does not necessarily have to be the favourite. I'm working on a mathematical formula to give a maximum starting price for my possible selection to determine this. What's interesting is that it goes the opposite way of Loopy's criteria, as he likes his place bets to be higher than R1.35 if memory serves me right. Mine will need the selection to be well backed, two different approaches.

Do you have stats on ones that have been supported last three runs.There must be something there

colors wrote: Do you have stats on ones that have been supported last three runs.There must be something there

No I don't. I haven't had time to look as I'm just a casual horse player with very limited time because I am a fairly busy businessman and a family man. So I'm trying to come up with a system that requires little time and can show a profit. Maybe I'm playing a fools game, but its been fun trying.

Should they start as favourites, the system likes OBREGA in the 3rd race and SEVENTH VIRTUE in the 9th race today. Hopefully we'll see some winning action.

With 23 mins to the off, OBREGA is a hot favourite with R106254 bet on it on Interbet. So it's just a case of shopping for the best price now.

10 mins to the off, R155415 now bet on it. The conspiracy theorist in me is thinking that the bookies would love to see this one lose.

The deed is done with 4 mins to the off. Got R2.05 for the win and R1.22 for the place on Interbet. I sit back and expect this one to be beaten. IVANOVICH looks like great value the once value player in me is screaming...

Result Posted
OBREGA - Winner
IVANOVICH - 2nd
CANDENAUT - 3rd

R230179 bet on Interbet on the winner!

Lol, the conspiracy theorist in me was wrong Maybe horse racing is not so crooked after all. I was also glad to see that I picked the correct place bet market as the tote only returned R1.00. How I hate that about the tote, surely they can make a R1.05 minimum payout.

SEVENTH VIRTUE has also become a favourite, a weak one for now, so maybe we will have a bet later too. A good day so far. I hope it continues...

With 20 mins to the off, SEVENTH VIRTUE has drifted out to second favourite at the moment, so it looks like a no play for me on this one unless it gets backed in heavily late.

The system likes two horses today should they start as favourites...

TRIPLE BEAT in the 8th race, currently the 2nd favourite though and

GOLD CUP GIRL currently the favourite. So I'll be keeping an eye on those two runners today.

With 39 mins to the off, TRIPLE BEAT is now the favourite with nearly R3000 bet on it already on Interbet.

5 mins to off and the tote may offer better value for a change...

2 mins to the off and I've gone R20 win and R40 place both on tote...