LD's Betting Diary - Chapter 2

I couldn't resist! I had to look at the daily thread to see if any other clansmen fanced any of my runners... This is what I've seen...

sanju likes Wonderful cross and Flying loot

macpowercasey likes Wonderful cross

Winning_Post likes Flying Loot

So I won't be celebrating or crying alone if I do back some of these I guess.

19 mins to go and the price on WONDERFUL CROSS is drifting, but it's still a firm favourite on Interbet, it's also now the tote favourite. So far it looks like a bet will be placed. I'll wait just a bit longer...


12 mins to go and my fancy is still the favourite, interestingly its not the tote place favourite, so I may get some value there...

9 mins to go and I've just noticed live streaming is back on Interbet. Awesome!

5 mins to go, it's now tote place favourite at R1.20, the value has gone.

3 mins to go, win bet placed at R2.75 on Interbet...

2 mins to go, place bet done on tote

Here's hoping...

Result Posted
STORM COAST - Winner
WONDERFUL CROSS - 2nd
LOCH LANG - 3rd


Once again Delpech can't deliver for me. I'll get a bit back on the place bet, but overall that was a loss.

35 mins to the Flying Loot race, it looks like it's going to start as favourite R5312 already bet on it on interbet.

25 mins to go, still the favourite and R9885 now bet.

18 mins to go and the price has drifted out to 4.00 on Interbet, if it remains favourite I might get some nice value here...

10 mins to go and the price is the same, R9885 bet now.

5 mins to go, the drift continues to R5.00 on Interbet.

2 mins to go, Money daown at R4.50 Interbet win. Place bet on tote. Here we go again....

Result Posted
BLACK JAGUAR - Winner
ROYALSECURITYPOWER - 2nd
BURRWOOD - 3rd

That result now puts the system well in the red. This is starting to go pear shaped...

The numbers are starting to look horrible :sick:

Place bet winners 3/5 60% strike rate, Loss -R47.08
Win bet winners 1/5 20% strike rate, Loss -R62.14

An interesting side statistic is that Anthony Delpech has been the jockey on three of these favourites and could not win on any of them.

Try your system on UK racing and see the difference... Just a suggestion.

Winning_Post wrote: Try your system on UK racing and see the difference... Just a suggestion.

Chrism also suggested I do this in my first betting diary thread. Do favourites really win more often in the UK? Where are our stats experts? In reality I think the stats experts will rightly think that I'm a fool for trying to reach conclusions after a small sample of only 5 bets. I'm sure they would recommend a sample size of at least 500 bets to start drawing any meaningful conclusions. It's been one of the most interesting weeks in my life as a horse player due to what happened at Flamingo Park on Monday. I say this because I've seen the huge gap in the way we as horse players can differ. A system player like myself would never have picked up that betting coup opportunity you did so well to spot. After that incident I have started to question myself whether form study is a waste of time, perhaps I should spend my time trying to second guess what trainers are trying to do with jockey switches and deliberately lowering decent horses merit ratings so that after a few abysmal runs they can pop up and win comfortably at big odds. That kind of selection technique is an art form I think if you're not an insider. I have a mathematicians brain and gravitate towards formulas and systems in my foolish pursuit to beat the game I love and hate so much. After yesterday's terrible performance of my system I was utterly disappointed and felt like giving the whole thing up. In the early hours of this morning my head is clearer and I realise I have been irrational and that I should continue with this until I do reach my goal of 20 bets. The disappointment stems from the fact that in hind site many of my systems work, but as soon as there's money on any of there selections going forward they inevitably go pear shaped and start showing loses immediately. It's incredible, it's almost as if the devil himself preys off hopeful gamblers like myself. Time for another coffee, thanks for your input winning post. I hope one day I can reach your level of expertise.

LOL, thanks Lucky Dude but I'd be a fool if I thought I was an expert on racing. I've leart many lessons from reckless punting and I've spent my fair share like many others on this love and hate game. Favorites don't always win in the UK but money horses usually perform well and run a place at the very least. I can't actually give you any advise on how to turn a profit cause as you understand that's not always easy even with patience and a cautious betting system. I will wish you all the luck though and I'll eagerly await the continuation of your betting diary, makes for very fascinating reading and I'm sure results will start turning in your favour.

Just a tip though, see how your luck fares after your 1st win bet, if it looses then revert to only a place bet, if that doesn't arrive stop for the day, continue the next and see if results change. This will build your confidence and when you start collecting one after another then you are likely to be more successful. As much as people tell me I'm crazy of which I already know, lol, this game is based purely on confidence, a good state of mind can reverse your luck and started hielding descent profits.

Good luck once again!!!

sure you would do better if your bets are restricted to straight sprints
although not knowing your system makes it hard for suggestions

Why not punt what your system throws out irrespective of it being favourite or not

colors wrote: sure you would do better if your bets are restricted to straight sprints
although not knowing your system makes it hard for suggestions

The only winner the system has had was a 1600m race at Greyville Poly, so it was around a bend. Not sure that's the magic cure. I think if I only played them if Marcus was riding I'd be up. That would be an even more boring system with maybe only 2 or 3 bets a month though...