LD's Betting Diary - Chapter 2

macpowercasey wrote: Why not punt what your system throws out irrespective of it being favourite or not

I had a quick look, and if played on the tote this way it would show...

On R20 win bets a -R40 loss, with a strike rate of 3 from 12 or 25%
On R40 place bets a -R48 loss, with a strike rate of 6 from 11 or 54.5%

So it would still be in the red, just not as bad as the current system is.

I've just transferred another R100 into my Interbet account. Thank goodness I've been playing with small money. I keep feeling that the money transfer is supposed to move in the other direction. How delusional can I be.. At least I haven't lost big money. I do feel when testing a system real money must be bet, as playing on paper does not expose me to the real emotions of gambling and prepost decisions I have had to make.

The system likes the following should they start as Interbet lone favourite for today's Turffontein meeting.

Race No Horse Last SP Off Time Notes

1 8 CONFABULATE 7 12:30 Long Shot
3 1 WEAPONOLOGY 1.1 13:40 Looks like a favourite
4 10 RUBY RUBY 2.2 14:15 Looks like Favourite
6 1 LIONS EMBLEM 2.5 15:30 Currently Joint Favourite
7 2 TIGER HOTSPUR 5 16:05 Currently 3rd Favourite

Here's hoping...

Lucky,

Very entertaining bud... I think since your system is not quite there yet why do you not charge a cover charge for entertainment :silly:

Keep up the good work Lucky and thanks for sharing

We all holding thumbs for you to succeed in your experiment...keep the faith...

Favourites can be manipulated...think mystery Aussie punter...so tread carefully...

Interbet didn't waste any time in clearing my funds into their account. They must be thinking "sucker!"

12 mins to the off and WEAPONOLOGY looks like it's going to start as favourite. I'm not sure if I'm excited or expecting more disappointment...

10 mins to go, my money is down at R2.20 on Interbet for a win.

9 mins to go and my place bet has been done on the tote.

I'm off to the TV room and I'm expecting disappointment...

Result Posted
OPAH LATINO - Winner
WEAPONOLOGY - 2nd
THE GOLDEN BOY - 3rd

Beaten by a nostril hair. The system continues the bleed red. I'm starting to look forward to the end of this dreadful experiment.

The place paid R1.10 on tote, gee thanks. That's a R4 profit on the tote place bet.

18 mins to the off and RUBY RUBY looks like a fouvourite, but not by far. I'm keeping my eye on the market...

7 mins to go and the price is sliding a bit, out to R4.00 now. The 2nd favourite is R4.5..

5 mins to go and money down at R3.80 win bet on Interbet.

4 mins to go, tote place bet placed..

Off to the TV room for more torture...

Result Posted
RUBY RUBY - Winner
ANITA - 2nd
ROYAL QUEST - 3rd

Striker Strydom you beauty! R3.80 is a good price for a favourite. That'll undo some of the damage. R1.40 not too bad a price for the place bet either.

19 mins to the LIONS EMBLEM race and it is a drifting 2nd favourite, so it looks like no bet here.

Result Posted
LIONS EMBLEM - Winner
GANESH - 2nd
VENTURE - 3rd

Four vark steaks! My would be selection wins it without my money on it. Why o' why wasn't it the favourite...

12 mins to the TIGER HOTSPUR race, it's 3rd favourite so it looks unlikely that I'll bet it.

It has been a profitable day for a change, so I can't complain.