The Vodacom Durban July Log as at 31 May 2021

Will Running Brave be scratched after today`s shocking run

all three from jubilee should come out after today.

people always complain the Met is a small field every year but its quality horses.The July from abt 11 to last horse on log are horses that will just get in the way of the main horses. 20 horse field 9 or 10 horses are no hopers.

Pilot officer wrote: people always complain the Met is a small field every year but its quality horses.The July from abt 11 to last horse on log are horses that will just get in the way of the main horses. 20 horse field 9 or 10 horses are no hopers.

Would just mention the first and second in yesterday's Derby were 16/1 and 50/1 and the second and third in the Oaks were 50/1 and 20/1 .

Dave Scott wrote:

Pilot officer wrote: people always complain the Met is a small field every year but its quality horses.The July from abt 11 to last horse on log are horses that will just get in the way of the main horses. 20 horse field 9 or 10 horses are no hopers.

Would just mention the first and second in yesterday's Derby were 16/1 and 50/1 and the second and third in the Oaks were 50/1 and 20/1 .

Why was the winner of the Oaks and Derby not the favourites?

Iam presuming AoB and Godolphin would only run horses that could win with there being so many unknown factors.

The July is a premium race, no hoppers like Atyaab should not be given a chance to cost punters!

The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...

TNaicker wrote: The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...

Please go read and learn more about the subject, also there are many people on this forum that can teach you.

The July is a handicap with conditions, so there will be horses “out at the weights’ and others that have achieved their current ratings at different distances.

Cochrane wrote:

TNaicker wrote: The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...

Please go read and learn more about the subject, also there are many people on this forum that can teach you.

The July is a handicap with conditions, so there will be horses “out at the weights’ and others that have achieved their current ratings at different distances.

Fully aware that the July is a handicap and there are all sorts of constraints placed on the handicappers such that a few don't have their true ratings...

So, the end result should be a 8-10 horse race with all those under-sufferance eliminated?...no space for improvement on the day, luck in running, enterprising jockeyship - all things that throw out current ratings and can allow / enable an under-sufferance horse to win ?

All the best with your selection...my pointer for a decent place bet is the Champions Challenge race...any horse from that race that gets in is normally at a good price and runs well...

Interesting views - for me I believe the July is traditionally a big field with a spread of weights - stand to be corrected, but did Jollify not dead-heat with the legend Sea Cottage - and if I remember correctly Jollify was carrying something like 44 kgs and Sea Cottage 60 My point is that, as per the weight limits set today, many horses will come in under sufferance, but I don't believe they should be taken out just because they run under sufferance - if their connections pay the acceptance fee, imo thet should be given the chance. There are other races for purists like the MET and QP where the best of the best compete at set weights, but the July is the original "People's Race" and should remain so - imo

As to the race itself, there is also various opinions on how it will play out, some believe the 3-yr olds will be good enough, others that Got The Greenlight is thrown in - and that's good - it stimulates conversation and adds interest. For me, I would not be totally shocked if none of the 3yr-olds make the Quartet :ohmy:

And at the risk of stealing TNaicker's thunder .... I think I know which horse he is referring to, for me I think the 2200m is a bridge too far - especially as the Snaith machine will probably ensure a decent pace again

TNaicker wrote:

Cochrane wrote:

TNaicker wrote: The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...

Please go read and learn more about the subject, also there are many people on this forum that can teach you.

The July is a handicap with conditions, so there will be horses “out at the weights’ and others that have achieved their current ratings at different distances.

Fully aware that the July is a handicap and there are all sorts of constraints placed on the handicappers such that a few don't have their true ratings...

So, the end result should be a 8-10 horse race with all those under-sufferance eliminated?...no space for improvement on the day, luck in running, enterprising jockeyship - all things that throw out current ratings and can allow / enable an under-sufferance horse to win ?

All the best with your selection...my pointer for a decent place bet is the Champions Challenge race...any horse from that race that gets in is normally at a good price and runs well...

I agree. I have seen many NO-Hopes win graded races in the past and this is no different. You have those that bet on the science, and those that bet on balanced probability and chance. I find the value in the latter.

right now i battle to fill the race with 20 horses. I have 11 as locked in

She's A Keeper
Matterhorn
Cirillo
Kommetdieding
War Of Athena
Rascallion
Linebacker
Got The Greenlight
Do It Again
Belgarion
Rainbow Bridge

then these three runners as next best

Shah Akbar
Sovereign Spirit
Shango

i then have these 6 all cup trial critical i guess

Tristful
African Night Sky
Trip To Africa
Atyaab (AUS) (not cup trial)
Nexus
Doublemint

and these as no @hoppers@. few of them hold cup trial entries so may change after the week end.

Super Silvano
Seehaam
Pack Leader
Azores
Tree Tumbo
Flying Carpet
Divine Odyssey
Silver Host
Running Brave
ExpressFromTheUS

I am hoping I am wrong but now getting that niggle of a small ante post disappoint for a few punters.

GTGL/WOA/MUZI

Where the bookies are slightly dropping GTGL and increasing WOA

Was hoping Matchett was thinking Craig might be the answer to his call after Sat?

Fingers crossed