Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

  • Bob Brogan
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Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#747881
Feature races for both days are priced up so let`s start a thread early

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  • mydada
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748058
Salt
Too Phat To Fly
Mumtaz

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  • Biggie626
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748063
FOXY PRINCESS (WIN)

This horse as she got older she improved drastically...she is now a 5year old mare and 5 of her 6wins have come during her age period of 4 and 5 within that 1 year!! She is going to make a lovely broodmare!

She has won over 1800m by 2.75 lengths
And tried the 2000m for the first time in her last start,she finished 2nd to expedite 2.75 lengths of!!
She also ran 4th to FRONT AND CENTER 3.25 lengths of (was a 1400m race)

EXPEDITE is second Favorite in the race but what's gonna make the difference is FOXY PRINCESS is 3kgs better off with EXPEDITE! She only has to improve by 2 lengths to win the race!!

15/1 (get some :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: )

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  • bayern
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748155
Snaith and Fourie to walk away with more than a few winners over the two days.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748156

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  • Sylvester
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748202
Vardy race 5 friday. the yard spoke the horse up after its last win

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748233
Rose In Bloom

12/1 too big , might have great draw
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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748234
Buffalo Bill Cody .... Scratched

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  • Frodo
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748236
Bob Brogan wrote: Buffalo Bill Cody .... Scratched

A real pity - would have been nice to measure him against the best

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  • Len Sham
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748239
Race 5 Ancestry best bet for me;) ;)

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  • Garrick
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748240
I have Zanadu competing in the Chairman’s Cup over 3200m @ 17:15 on Saturday. This is what you need to know :

1.) I bought her in 2015 with the express intention of trying to win races over 2 miles (3200m).
2.) I have raced her very lightly; so do not be put off by her infrequent appearances as she is 100% sound, 100% fit and has been prepared (since April 2018) specifically for this event.
3.) She made the journey to PE in June purely to determine whether she actually stays a marathon distance. She literally stepped straight off the float and into the PE Gold Cup where she was beaten just under 3 lengths straight out of the maiden ranks after a long, tiring road trip.
4.) Her final preparatory race 6+ weeks ago exceeded our expectations but confirmed her progress and well being.
5.) She is reunited with my rider of choice. Without exception every other jockey engaged has failed to heed our very simple instructions; the most important of which is that she does not run for the stick.
6.) At the very least she deserves to be included in your calculations even if you leave her out of your ‘schemes’. Earlier this week my trainer didn’t forget to trot out that well thumbed fantasy publication: ‘Popular Pre-Race Statements To Make To Owners Volume 1’ : ‘I don’t think I have ever had her better’.

Please be reminded that I do not punt horses in my ownership although my partner asked me to back Zanadu on her behalf so I took a very small bet for her @ 33/1 early in the week.

Because this race is the focus of my attention this weekend I have assessed it in some depth and disagree quite strongly with some of the conclusions advanced by some of the form guides. By sticking my neck out I obviously run the risk of making a complete idiot of myself; but then we have all been on the receiving end of many ‘snotklaps’ in racing!!

Staying races have been my preference ever since I witnessed a Millard trained horse called Bambera win the first Chairmans I ever witnessed way back in the early 1970s. The race was remarkable because he passed the winning post on the first occasion tailed off last about 35 lengths behind the leaders yet won by 3+ lengths going away. I have been sick for stayers ever since.

Sadly commercial expediency has seen stamina bred out of most South African horses and races such as the Chairmans have been downgraded to a Group 3 whereas you might recall it used to be a Group 1. The upside of this is that a patient owner can usually acquire a potential stayer for peanuts instead of pursuing some multi million rand yearling which cannot get much beyond a mile. Rule#1 : NEVER spend big money on a racehorse. Moving on……….

My pre-eminent rule when evaluating a stamina race is:

Who has proved that they actually stay? A lot of horses that look good over 2400m fail comprehensively to get the extra 800m of a 2 mile trip so be very sure your pick does stay before lumping on.

In this race proven stayers are Strathdon, Walter Smoothie, Plano, Zanadu and Sheet Weaver (up to 3000m only).

This means that Gimme One Night, Woodland’s Forest and Pacific Chestnut are either untried or unproven over this distance.

I am happy to be proved totally wrong but it does call into question how they managed to initially price Gimme One Night up as favourite. I will take on a Gimmethegreenlight/Parade Leader pedigree all day long over 2 miles as a general rule whilst also being cognisant that favourites habitually have dreadful records in feature Cape staying races.

Furthermore – I felt that in the recent Cape Summer Stayers over 2500m they almost walked in the early stages; suggesting that this race may not be a reliable form line and better viewed as a hard run 2000m event.
In no particular order these are the opponents I actually fear :

Strathdon : Far and away the runner with the best credentials. If favourites are your game & the poor house is where to plan to live don’t let me stop you. I am simply hoping that getting 9kgs (20lbs or 30L over 3200m @ 1,5L per pound) will prove the old adage that ‘weight stops trains’. Respect.

Walter Smoothie : Impressive recent winner at Turffontein. But…….what did that run take out of him? Has had to travel and runs anti clockwise for the first time on a strange course.

Plano : You need to be very wary of this one although form has not been quite that convincing since winning the PE Gold Cup over 3600m in June 2018; coming from stone last to score in facile fashion.

Sheet Weaver : Currently in form but not totally compelling over this distance to date. Both Plano & Sheet Weaver also have to travel from PE and neither of them has run at Kenilworth before.

Zanadu : Due to natural bias I won’t dwell on this one other than to pose just one question : How is this horse rated 60? She has been very consistent over distances well short of her optimum trip. She has run close up to horses rated as 80 – 90+ yet her rating remains anchored at 60. I’m not complaining but just asking as the subtleties of handicapping have often tended to bamboozle me.
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  • madmax
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Re: Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

6 years 5 months ago
#748241
Thanx mate,when I first opened the card,I ringed zanadu and waited for your comments. All the best mate, I think I will see you on tellytrack in the winners box
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