Kenilworth LQP Festival Friday 4/Saturday 5 Jan

Best of luck

Garrick,
Firstly wish you the best of the running. Just to answer the MR question. The best stayer in SA was rated 72 because he never was tried over 3200m. His 1st win over that trip he was way out at the weights and then won the stayers Triple Crown. Hermoso Mundo!

Snaith`s Best Bets

FRIDAY: Race 1: Shinnecock (4) Race 3: Destin (3)

SATURDAY: Race 3: River Themes (3) Race 6: Oh Susanna (5) Race 7: Do it Again (2) Race 10: Clouded Hill (4)

I'M FOLLOWING BRETT CRAWFORD TODAY AND TOMORROW

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

Lovely sunny day with a moderate headwind- course should be running quite fast although there has been a fair amount of irrigation.
Race 1 . Shinnecock very short price, hard to beat on good debut effort.
race 2: This race will be a good pointer to the course bias down the straight. Quite a few with chances, in no particular order 1,3,4,6,12,14,15,18,19. I liked the improvement shown by Kingston Rock behind a decent sort last time and he looks good ew value at 7/1.
Race3; Destin has been priced up favourite but unproven over the trip. Bold Assassin is no star but is a year older and gets the trip. Magic Mountain is capable at best and is well in at the weights. Mercurana is bred for this but still inexperienced.
Race 4: Je Ne Sais Quoi good debut at long odds. With normal improvement is my selection. Bella Summer is consistent and will be involved in the finish despite draw. A few that are on the upgrade that might surprise. Elusive Green was badly hampered last time and nearly came down- the offending jockey got a 10 day holiday for knocking 4 horses out of that race. from a good draw she has a good chance of running in the money.
race 5; Vardy has impressed both starts and must be respected as further improvement is likely, but a skinny price. Charles has run well in features this track and will challenge. Ancestry has tumbled down the ratings and must be respected if returning to his best.
Race 6; This is a very open and competitive race, and is an interesting clash between the 3 year olds and the older fillies. No selection.
Race 7: Clouds Unfold returns to sprinting and is the one to beat. Carlita, Nous Voila and Magic Mary are speedy 3yos. Rose in Bloom is best in of the older fillies. Freedom Charter has run good races over distances short of her best last two, and the 1200m will suit better. She is still getting better and stronger and with some luck is in with a shout today.
Race 8: No selection.

Race 1 - Emerald Band 9/2

Nice debut where he was up with the pace- should come on a ton from that. Small bet from my side here just for interest.

Race 2 - Gimmetherain 6/1, Spy 20/1

Gimmetherain drops back in trip where he has run his best races, now aided with the fitting of blinkers. Very competitive race where he should fight out the finish.
Also small e/w on Spy who's last 2 races, if you ignore the workrider races, have been good. Ran a good 2nd to Belgarion, who I do fancy tomorrow.


Race 4 - Je Nais Se Quoi 28/10

Very competitive race and at first glance, I was all over this one but a few replays and a closer form study have convinced me that more than a few have strong chances.
So a small investment for me on my first choice who ran a cracker on debut to pip Bella Summer to the 2nd spot and she should again hold that rival.
Should be fighting out the finish with natural improvement. Nice race.


Race 5 - Vardy 15/10

Vardy's done very well thus far and the horse he beat there in Meraki won again so that was a nice little form boost.
He's been entered for the Derby and the CTS 1600 on Met Day so clearly held in high regard.
However, this will not be easy.
I think Ancestry is a massive runner, as he showed last time that he's probably now reached his right rating and ran on strongly for 3rd.
Will definitely take some boxed exacta's with him but I just went with Vardy for the improvement factor. Good race this.


Race 6 - Expedite 9/2, Princess Irene 7/1

Expedite's really improved as of late and deserved the rating increase for her easy last win. She should take the rise in class in her step and should be fighting out the finish.
Princess Irene is a really improving 3yo filly and she posted a smart win in the handicaps LTO. This could come a little too soon but she may surprise and be up to the task already.


Race 7 - Clouds Unfold 22/10, Mary O'Reilly 25/1

So Clouds Unfold drops back in trip after he fair Guineas run in 3rd. She has the necessary speed to cope with the trip and she is more than good enough.
The stable won this last year with Magical Wonderland who also ran in the Guineas and then absolutely blitzkrieged her field in this last year.
So they know what it takes and Clouds Unfold can go extremely close here.

Really like Mary O'Reilly as a filly and she has shown that she travels well with her excellent run in Gauteng.
Posted an easy win LTO in Fairview and should come here with a lively chance.

Firstly, of course I'd like to wish Garrick all the best

Just in terms of handicapping, if I could add my 2 cents ..... I think it is not easy to rate horses once they go over marathon trips .... WFA becomes 'less accurate', the pace often plays havoc with ratings, etc.

For me (and I could be proven wrong) I think Zanadu is very close to a 60 on exposed form - on her last 3 efforts anyway .....

When she won her maiden in April last year over 2500m she had Unrivalled (still a maiden - rated 73 at the time) and The Silva Fox (won his maiden in August - has since run consistently to around 69) behind her - taken WFA into account (both U and TSF being 3 yr olds at the time), for me Z ran to around 57 in her maiden win

She then went to PE and (educational or not) she acquitted herself well behind runners rated in the low eighties, but if you take the ratings of the runners around her (Chappaquiddick and Shady World) and also given the subsequent performance of those that finished in front of her, I'd rate that run at around 63

So imo she has a stiff task at the weights - but over the trip nothing is impossible :huh:

MIDWINTER
CABO DA CRUZ
PHILANDER
INDI ANNA
HOTEL CIPRIANI
ONTENDERHOOKS
TOWNSHIP MELODY
ANGEL'S TRUMPET
PIPPIELANGKOUS

Any one with trainer comments especially from the Snaith stable.please

Just his fancies earlier in the thread

CRAWFORD YARD COMMENTS:


Engage And Beware - Good last run, he is in good form at home. This is a very competitive race, but has a quartet chance on his last effort.

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High Key - Had a good debut effort last start, will improve on this and could be an each way chance if not green.


Kingston Rock - Working well at home, good last run, expecting another fair effort and is a quartet chance.
​

Indi Ana - In good form at home, steps up to the mile and should appreciate the extra. Will have an each way chance.


Charles - Working well and in good form at home, have fitted the blinkers and expecting further improvement. Must be included in all perms
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Baroness Mary- Has a decent galloping weight, and a wide draw to overcome. A consistent filly and expecting a fair run.


Princess Irene - Working well at home. Wide draw to overcome and a big step up in class and thus is under sufferance at the weights. On her last run, expecting a improvement and a good run.
​

Carlita - Working very well at home, expecting a good effort from her on the way she is working. Must be included in al perms!


Ikebana - This is a very competitive handicap, working well at home and definitely has a chance

BASS YARD COMMENTS:

Sark

Race: 2, Maiden Plate

Distance: 1200m

Comments: First run back after a break, could run a fair race fresh. Include.



Out of the Ordinary

Race: 2, Maiden Plate

Distance: 1200m

Comments: Having a sprint back after gelding , will be too short.



Mercurana

Race: 3, Maiden Plate

Distance: 2500m

Comments: Doing well and expecting a good run over the preferred trip.



Oak Bay (GER)

Race: 3, Maiden Plate

Distance: 2500m

Comments: Money Chance over this trip.



Bella Summer

Race: 4, Maiden Plate (F&M)

Distance: 1600m

Comments: If she can overcome a poor draw will have an obvious chance again.



Ben-hur

Race: 5, MR80 Handicap

Distance: 1600m

Comments: Doing well and enjoys the long run in. Should be thereabouts in a competitive field. Vardy to Beat.



Ontenderhooks

Race: 6, Jamaica Handicap (Listed)

Distance: 1200m

Comments: She seems fairly well in here, she should stay well but we will see where we fit in. Don’t ignore.



Perfectproportions

Race: 6, Jamaica Handicap (Listed)

Distance: 2000m

Comments: The filly is well , it looks a tough ask for her, but if there is a good pace on, she could make the frame.



Freedom Charter

Race: 7, Cartier Sceptre Stakes (Gr 2)

Distance: 1200m

Comments: She is improving all the time and is ultra-consistent. She is better suited to the 1200m and she will be right there.



Clouds Unfold

Race: 7, Cartier Sceptre Stakes (Gr 2)

Distance: 1200m

Comments: Back in the sprint distances and she is fit and well going into the race. She looks a worthy favourite.



Nous Voila

Race: 7, Cartier Sceptre Stakes (Gr 2)

Distance: 1200m

Comments: She has good form, better suited to the 1200m and capable of winning a race like this.



Varsity Lover

Race: 7, Cartier Sceptre Stakes (Gr 2)

Distance: 1200m

Comments: She steps up in class here, we not sure where she fits in but she has come on well with her last win and could be included in larger perms.



Flower of Carmel

Race: 8, FM 68 Handicap (F&M)

Distance: 1000m

Comments: Back up the straight but can’t be confident.