2012 Grand National

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KEY AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS

The last horse to win with 11-5 or more was Red Rum in 1977

98 horses since 1977 have failed to win with more than 11-5

Since 1961 only one Cheltenham Festival winner that same season has won

Irish bred horses have taken 9 of the last 11 runnings

The last horse aged 7 or younger to win was in 1940

Only two grey horses have ever won the Grand National

All winners since 1970 had won before over at least 3m

17 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or older

7 of the last 11 had run over the National fences before

All 21 recent winners ran no more than 48 days ago

7 of the last 21 ran at Cheltenham last time out

RICHARD DUNWOODY'S NATIONAL GUIDE
By Richard Dunwoody

As most people know I was lucky enough to win the world's greatest steeplechase twice during my riding days and with my first success on West Tip in 1986 coming early on in my career then the pressure was off and I could enjoy my future Aintree experiences a bit more.

I'm often asked about the kind of horse I think makes a good National type, and apart from the obvious things like possessing plenty of stamina and being a good jumper I would always say if you had an intelligent horse on your side too then this was a huge bonus. I say that because both of my winners, West Tip and Miinnehoma, were extremely clever animals and with 39 other runners hurtling and falling around you then having a horse that could re-adjust quickly and think on its feet is a huge asset.

As we all know much was said after last year's race which resulted in the Aintree officials modifying the course again, but I just hope that's it now as any more changes and the race that we've all grow to love over the years will become unrecognisable - in my view it should always be the ultimate test of both jockey and horse.

Anyway, onto this year's race and what a contest we have in prospect with SYNCHRONISED topping the bill as he tries to become the first Gold Cup winner to win the Aintree Grand National in the same season since Golden Miller achieved the feat in 1934.

Hats off to Jonjo and the team for letting him take his chance and after all he'll never going to get into the contest on such a decent mark in the future. However, for me, I'd be slightly worried about his jumping around the Aintree fences as he can hit the odd one, while although we've had an extra week between Cheltenham and Aintree this year let's not forget he had a very hard race last time out and I just feel that could take its toll. It's also worth noting that he does have some hefty stats to overcome - the last horse to win with 11-10 or more was Red Rum in 1974, while we've only seen one Cheltenham Festival winner of that same season triumph since 1961.

Jonjo is also set to run SUNNYHILLBOY, who won this year's Kim Muir, so will also have that huge Cheltenham Festival winner stat to overcome, but on a positive note he does get in here with just 10-5, plus being a 9 year-old and winning at Aintree, albeit over hurdles, are positives on his side.

Many thought that with Prince de Beauchene missing the race then Ruby Walsh, who's already won this famous race twice, would opt to ride SEABASS for his father Ted, but after expressing his doubts about that horse getting home he's decided to side with the Willie Mullins-trained ON HIS OWN - leaving his sister Katie, who will be bidding to become the first female winner, the Seabass mount.

That decision promptly saw the odds slashed on the Graham Wylie-owned 8 year-old and with more support expected over the next few days it wouldn't surprise me if Ruby's mount starts to challenge Synchronised at the head of the market. This lightly-raced horse was pulled up in the 4m race at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, but since then has won two of his three starts and with age on his side I suspect we've not seen the best of him yet. Add in that he won't mind any give underfoot, his trainer is no stranger to winning this race and the sheer fact that Ruby has picked him certainly makes him one for the shortlist.

Last year's winner, BALLABRIGGS, will be another that will be popular in the betting as the once-a-year punters see a name they recognise, and although I think the 2011 hero can run a big race I suspect with a 10lb rise this time a place might be the best he can hope for - plus we all know the last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was the mighty Red Rum in the 70's.

I rode one of my National winners for the Pipe's and they will be hoping to land the race again, this time with JUNIOR. This versatile sort, who has also won at Royal Ascot, has had the National as a firm target now for well over a year and has an ideal preparation. We've only seen him twice this season so will come here fresher than most, while the form of his recent close second at Doncaster has worked out really well with the winner following up again at Newbury. If there is one negative it'll be his lack of experience over fences (only had 8 chase starts), but last season's Kim Muir winner won't lack for stamina, while don't forget Ballabriggs also won that Cheltenham Festival race the year before coming here to triumph!

Last year's winning trainer, Donald McCain, will also be running his classy WEIRD AL and if you put a line through his recent Cheltenham Gold Cup run, as he reportedly bled, then he's interesting. The time before he was only 2 lengths behind Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and with Timmy Murphy, who won this race on Comply or Die in 2008, booked he'll have no better pilot. That said, he does have the famous weight trend to overcome with 11-8 to carry, but in recent years the more classy runners have been holding sway (last three winners carried between 11-0 and 11-5) and I'm sure he'll still have his supporters.

The well-named SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM could give the press boys some spacing issues in the papers the next day if he's to win and being trained by Nicky Henderson, who believe it or not is still looking for his first win in this race, will mean he secures the trainers' title for the Seven Barrows team. He's been on the up this season, despite a slightly poor run last time out, and having run seventh in the Topham Chase over these fences 12 months ago then with 7 of the last 11 winners having previous experience of these fences he'll have that trend on his side.

Trainer Alan King didn't have the best of times at Cheltenham but in WEST END ROCKER he does have a real chance to end the season on a high. This 10 year-old will not be inconvenienced if the rain continues and having won the Becher Chase here back in December in facile fashion then the course will pose no problems. Yes, he's been raised 12lbs for that Becher Chase win, and failed to complete in the National 12 months ago but he was brought down that day, so with a bit more luck and a nice racing weight of 10-12 then he's another I like, especially if there is any give underfoot.

Another that will relish any more rain is GILES CROSS, and with more showers forecast in the Liverpool area punters have latched onto this - he's been one of the best backed horses in the last few days. This front-running 10 year-old gets in with just 10-1 and has already been second in a National this season - the Welsh version back in December - so there are no issues surrounding the trip. For a 10 year-old he's also only had 16 career runs, so doesn't actually have many miles on the clock, and providing he can get into a good jumping rhythm up front then he could be out of danger from fallers and might just prove hard to peg back off his light weight.

Finally, if he makes the line-up (and it's not confirmed he will) the forgotten runner in the race could be THE MIDNIGHT CLUB. It was only 12 months ago that this Willie-Mullins-trained horse was sent off the 15/2 favourite for the race and he ran a creditable sixth. True, he was 27 lengths behind the winner, but that doesn't tell the full story as he virtually brought to a standstill when Arbor Supreme came to grief four out. He's a year older at 11, which is a slight negative, but has got 5lbs less to carry this time and a massive 14lbs pull with Ballabriggs - there could be worse 33/1 shots.

GO FOR A SUNNY DAY AT AINTREE
By Simon Holt

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised has top weight in the John Smith's Grand National and along with last year's winner Ballabriggs and Junior, those three horses have dominated the ante-post betting.

I think it is going to be quite tough for any of them to win actually as history really counts against it.

Synchronised would be the first Gold Cup winner to land the National since Golder Miller back in 1934 so that is the measure of the task he faces.

Whether he is quite the right type for the race also remains to be seen as he is quite a small horse and has his own way of getting over fences.

But if Tony McCoy has got him within eight lengths of the leaders crossing the Melling Road for the final time then they are all in big trouble as he really stays exceptionally well.

It is a question of whether the champ can get him in that position and also whether he has truly recovered from his Cheltenham exertions as trainer Jonjo O'Neill has always said he needs a lot of time between races.

Ballabriggs is up 10 pounds from winning the race last year - no horse since Red Rum has won the National back-to-back and that was back in 1974.

So history is against Ballabriggs as well and I was not particularly taken by his reappearance run at Kelso - but course form is very important and you could not completely rule him out.

Junior has the distinction of being a winner at Royal Ascot and the Cheltenham Festival in the past and he would surely make history if he were to win this race as well.

I am just not convinced he is the type for the race as he tends to jump his fences fairly flat and also needs to dominate ideally - an early mistake could put him on the back foot.

The one I like is Sunnyhillboy, who won the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and is a stable companion of Synchronised.

I was really impressed with how he charged up the hill to beat Becauseicouldntsee going away and his stamina for the job looks well enough established.

He ran well last year in the Irish National, seems to have come into form at the right time and seems to have a good racing weight.

He does come from off the pace so will need some luck in running but I can see him being very close at the finish with a clear round.

Organisedconfusion beat him in the Irish National and he is very interesting as well.

He is just a seven-year-old and has had a very careful campaign which has not seen him overstretched at all.

He has run over hurdles and distances too short for him so clearly the Grand National has been his main target - were he to win then he would certainly create history with Nina Carberry in the saddle.

Others to consider are the classy Neptune Collonges, Calgary Bay, who is having an excellent season, while the softer ground will really suit West End Rocker, winner of the Becher Chase.

He looks a stout stayer while Giles Cross is on many shortlists but I think that three and half miles is more his cup of tea.

In conclusion, I think Sunnyhillboy can continue a remarkable spring for Jonjo O'Neill with Richie McLernon in the saddle and his danger is Organisedconfusion.

OUT ON HIS OWN AT 16/1
By Ben Linfoot

It's seven years since Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins teamed up to win the John Smith's Grand National with Hedgehunter and the pair can combine again with ON HIS OWN in the great race on Saturday.

This eight-year-old son of Presenting looks built to fly over these unique fences and after watching his win in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January I'm convinced he'll relish the test.

Mullins himself has described On His Own as a "a huge, long-striding horse" and this prominent racer who jumps a fence well looks sure to be up at the front end keeping out of trouble.

There's no better man to guide him around Aintree than Walsh, and though any rain would be no hinderance to him it could actually be that drying ground will be in his favour.

He won on good ground at Ayr on his final start for Howard Johnson and Mullins also believes his charge will appreciate better conditions.

It's also likely the marathon trip will bring about plenty of improvement as he just looks a strong, thorough stayer with a big engine.

Kept fresh for this since his impressive win at Gowran, On His Own looks set to run a huge race and I'm surprised 16/1 is readily available the night before the race given his profile and connections.

Of course, luck in-running plays a huge part in the National and though I could make a case for West End Rocker, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, last year's winner Ballabriggs and of course the Gold Cup winner Synchronised they all look to be around the price they should be.

The one I think could be massively overpriced is Kim Bailey's MIDNIGHT HAZE at a whopping 125/1.

Admittedly I think his chances would've increased had the forecast rain from earlier in the week actually arrived but even so, I think triple-figure prices about this horse are wide of the mark.

He won by 11 lengths two starts ago in the manner of an improving horse and wasn't disgraced when sixth in the Cross Country at Cheltenham, his prep for this.

Sean Quinlan is likely to ride him prominently which is always a positive in this race as you decrease the chances of being unlucky and Bailey, who won this race in 1990 with Mr Frisk, has been upbeat about his chances.

He's certainly not a no-hoper, as his odds of 125/1 imply, and I can't resist backing him each-way in the hope he makes the frame.

It's a fantastic supporting card but value punts are thin on the ground and though I'm reluctant to take on Simonsig in the opener I don't think we'll have many opportunities to back SUPER DUTY at 12/1.

Donald McCain's horse looks to have a touch of class and on a line through Keys he might not be a million miles away from his stablemate Cinders And Ashes in terms of ability.

He'll try and make all here and I'd expect him to have them all strung out like washing up the straight - bar the classy Simonsig who looks more than capable of sitting off a strong pace.

However, Super Duty has a tenacious attitude and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world should he shrug off the talented grey.

We'll back him each-way in case Nicky Henderson's horse proves too classy, but still, the place return would almost pay for our National bets.

ORGANISEDCONFUSION GETS THE VOTE
By Ryan McElligott

The Arthur Moore-trained Organisedconfusion looks the pick of the 15 strong Irish challenge for this year's renewal of the John Smith's Grand National.

Irish interest at this year's Aintree Festival has been quite limited but hopes are high that the raiding party can land the biggest prize of all and last year's Irish National hero makes considerable appeal. Since his heroics at Fairyhouse twelve months ago Organisedconfusion has been given a light campaign.

He started off his season with a couple of solid runs over hurdles and after coming down early on his return to fences in January he ran respectably over an inadequate two and a quarter miles at Gowran last month.

It has to be said that seven-year-olds do not have a good record in the National - incredibly one has to go back to 1940 to find the last seven-year-old to win the race - and Moore's charge is some 13 pounds higher than when he won the Irish National but this should not deter his supporters.

It is more than likely that Organisedconfusion is capable of improving on the form that he has shown to date.

After all the Irish National (apart from his sole point-to-point run) was the only time in his career than he has raced beyond 2m 5f and his display at Fairyhouse was one of a very strong stayer. The ground at Liverpool should be perfect for this son of Laveron and Moore can be relied upon to have his charge in the form of his life for this test.

The stable went close to landing the National with King Johns Castle several years ago and their representative this year looks a substantially stronger contender.

Willie Mullins' Thyestes Chase hero On His Own is among the leading contenders and deservedly so following his impressive demolition of a decent field at Gowran in January. This test looks sure to play to his strengths and expect a strong showing from him.

The trainer also sends out The Midnight Club who was favourite for this race a year ago when finishing sixth. This season The Midnight Club has performed some way below his best but possibly a return to Aintree will spark a revival in his fortunes.

Another obvious contender from these shores is Killyglen who was firmly in contention when he came down four out in this race last year. He has shaped up quite nicely this season and comes here off a victory in a conditions chase at Down Royal last month although the runner-up from that race, Saddlers Storm, didn't boost the form in the Irish National on Monday.

Black Apalachi won a Becher Chase at this track in 2008 and he also finished second to Don't Push It in the 2010 National. Remarkably this is only his second run since that gallant effort. The thirteen-year-old returned to the fray with a cracking second to Prince De Beauchene in the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. Despite his advancing years it would be unwise to dismiss his chances.

The relentless improver Seabass, who represents Ted and Katie Walsh, also commands maximum respect following a terrific season in which he has reeled off four straight handicap wins.

However, the one that makes most appeal outside of Organisedconfusion is Noel Glynn's Becauseicouldntsee who comes here off an excellent second to Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. The nine-year-old was an early casualty in this race last year but he looks ideally equipped to deal with the demands of this race.

As a former runner-up in the four mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham he should relish this extreme stamina test and he looks capable of mounting quite a strong for victory.

With Aintree falling in between Fairyhouse and Punchestown Irish involvement in the remainder of the meeting is quite limited and it may be best just to focus on the National where the Irish challenge is a particularly strong one.

GRAND NATIONAL BOOK REVIEW
By Richard Horner


Synchronised This year's Cheltenham Gold Cup hero ridden by the champion jockey AP McCoy, is the current favourite and even with top weight he has the class to go well if he takes to this unique test. My major concern is his style of racing and jumping which doesn't fit the profile of a typical National winner who normally races fairly handily, where Synchronised usually takes time to warm up in his races.

Ballabriggs Last year's winner is trained by Donald McCain, son of the Grand National legend and trainer of Red Rum Ginger. Ballabriggs has been trained all year with this one day in mind and even though up ten pounds for last year's victory he looks sure to go well again and could easily be in the money once more. My worry for win purposes is he is off a career high mark and has to defy the stat that no horse has won back to back National's since Red Rum.

Weird Al The second string for trainer Donald McCain although he does have a touch of class on his day, as he showed when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on his reappearance this season. He broke a blood vessel when pulled up when fancied for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and can't be backed with any confidence after that disappointment.

Neptune Collonges Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has yet to win the Grand National and Neptune Collonges is his only runner this year. Has won three Grade 1 races in his prime and is still capable of useful form as he showed at Haydock last time out when just beaten by Giles Cross. He has plenty of weight though with 11st 5lb and it is hard to see him challenging for more than a minor place.

Calgary Bay Is currently in the form of his life and has really clicked for his jockey Dominic Elsworth, with impressive wins at both Cheltenham and in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster beating Shakalakaboomboom in a tight finish. He now has a career high mark to contend with of 157 and his weight of 11st 6lb and hold up tactics will make it hard for him. Let's hope he goes better than last year when falling at the 4th fence.

Alfa Beat His best victory was in the Kerry National at Listowel last season but his most recent run was a poor one, when pulled up in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. He jumped poorly in last year's Topham Chase over the National fences so it looks hard to see him winning.

Planet Of Sound A former Grade 1 winner in the Punchestown Gold Cup in 2010. He has been lightly raced since but if the rain stays away he could well at a decent price, as his excellent second in the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury shows he is still capable of being competitive off this sort of handicap mark.

Black Apalachi Goes really well over these fences as when romping to victory in the 2008 Beecher Chase and finishing an excellent second to Don't Push It in the 2010 National. He runs off the same handicap mark and looks sure to go well again. Any more rain would be welcomed but as he showed when second he can still go well on decent ground.

Deep Purple One of three runners for Welsh trainer Evan Williams and probably the least fancied. He followed a win at Sandown with a poor performance in the Racing Plus Chase when falling 5 out when beaten at the time. He is very much hit or miss and I would be backing him to be a miss in this race.

Junior A tremendously versatile horse having won on the flat at Royal Ascot and the Cheltenham Festival over fences. He now goes for the biggest chase of all and it will be some performance if he can pull it off. He is still off a competitive mark as he showed at Doncaster last time out, however, he does tend to belt a fence or three on the way round and he won't get away with that here.

Chicago Grey Has the profile of a horse sure to run well if he gets the breaks under the excellent Paul Carberry. He proved his stamina when winning the 4 miler at last year's festival and his trainer Gordon Elliot knows how to train a National winner having done so in 2007 with Silver Birch. If the rain stays away he is a major player.

Tatenen Seems to reserve his best form for Ascot with his last 2 wins being there. However has stamina doubts and is a very unlikely winner.

Seabass He has won his last 7 races and comes here in tremendous form and bids to give his pilot Katie Walsh who is the sister of Ruby a first win for a female rider in the Worlds biggest steeplechase.

Father Ted Walsh trains the horse and has a National winner to his name having trained Papillion to victory in 2000 with son Ruby on board. Stamina is the only doubt for Seabass but he looks sure to go well for a long way for his excellent pilot .

Shakalakaboomboom With the ground now looking like been on the good side Shakalakaboomboom does come into the reckoning for a big run.

A very consistent type he had a spin over these fences last year in the Topham chase and has been trained this year for the National. In good form all season including a close second to Calgary Bay in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. He looks sure to give the superb Barry Geraghty a great ride and should go close.

West End Rocker Has been very well backed this week when the rain came as this one likes soft ground as he showed when romping to victory over these fences in the Becher Chase. With the ground drying out his backers may desert him but dangerous to do so as he has won on good ground and can still run a huge race for the bang in form yard of Alan King.

According to Pete Has been in great form this season with wins in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby and the Peter Marsh at Haydock and he looks sure to give a bold sight up with the pace for a long way. Further rain would increase his chance of hitting the money for the Malcom Jefferson yard who continued it's good form with Cape Tribulation winning on Thursday.

On His Own Ruby Walsh has had the pick of several horses and he selected this Willie Mullins trained gelding to try and give him a third Aintree national win. A wide margin win in the Thyestes Chase last time out means he arrives in great form and looks sure to go well with any more rain in his favour.

Always Right A good third in last years Scottish National proving his stamina for this sort of test was followed by an impressive reappearance win at Kelso in December. Since then however he has disappointed badly being pulled up at both Wetherby and Haydock. Hard to know what to expect now but has a chance on his best form.

Cappa Bleu An impressive win in the 2009 Foxhunters chase at Cheltenham was the highlight of his career so far and this Evan Williams-trained horse is the pick of stable jockey Paul Moloney and he looks a big contender after three good runs this season including a win at Haydock and a good third in the Welsh National. With the ground drying in his favour he should put up a bold bid as long as the heavy showers stay away.

Rare Bob Has bits of form that would give him a shout off this mark including when running very well at this meeting last year before unseating his rider two out . The good ground will suit him and gives him a better chance of getting home as his stamina is not proven for this test.

Organisedconfusion Has been given a typical National preparation by trainer Arthur Moore after winning last year Irish version and he looks to give the other female jockey Nina Carberry the historic win. The ground and trip should be fine but seven-year-olds have a terrible record in the race and an early fall at Leopardstown in January certainly wasn't part of the plan.

Treacle He ran well when second in the Paddy Power Chase in December and followed that with a good run when third in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Quel Esprit with Thursday's Aintree Bowl winner Follow The Plan just behind in fourth. Fits a lot of the stats needed to win a National and no surprise to see him go well.

The Midnight Club Went off favourite for last year's renewal in which he never really made an impression after an early mistake. He seems to be in worse form going into the race this time round so it's hard to see him going much better this time and he is one of those discarded by Ruby Walsh.

Mon Mome The winner of the 2009 National at 100/1 and can now run off a 3lb lower handicap mark so he can't be ruled out if putting his best foot forward although that has happened only once this season whn runner up at Cheltenham in January.

Arbor Supreme Has failed to complete in the last two Nationals and hard to see him faring much better this year. He hasn't jumped a fence in public since last years race with two hurdle races used for his prep.

Sunnyhillboy He comes here in great form after his victory in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and he can race off the same handicap mark which mean he is ten pounds well in here compared to future races. Seagram though was the last Cheltenham winner to go on to win the National in the same year and that was in 1991 so the stats are against him and this will provide a much stiffer test for him.

Killyglen He will be a very popular selection for many as he fits most stats required to win the race. He was still in with a chance when falling four out last year and a recent win at Down Royal shows he is in form but he is not one I want on my side on the long run in as he has been known not to find much off the bridle. I suspect that may be the case again.

Quiscover Fontaine He hasn't run over fences since an excellent fourth in last years Irish National and he could go well at a price if his stamina holds out. That looks the main doubt with this one.

Tharawaat Very hard to make a case for Gordon Elliott's second string . He is only seven which is a big negative and he doesn't look in any sort of form to buck that trend.

Becauseicouldntsee He ran well to be second in the Kim Muir behind Sunnyhillboy last time out and he looks an interesting contender as long as he can get into a rhythm early which didn't happen in last year's race when he came down at only the second fence.

State Of Play An excellent National record of being placed in the last three runnings although he never looking like winning any of them. Now 12 it will be a bit surprising if he can make the frame for the fourth year running.

Swing Bill He won on his reappearance this year at Cheltenham in November but it has been downhill since and it will be a shock if he troubles the judge here after a poor effort back at Prestbury Park last time.

Postmaster Will be a huge shock if this one can deliver! Even though he has won his last two races this is a major step up in class and he won't be up to it.

Giles Cross Had been well backed this week when the rain arrived, but that seems to have dried up and his winning chance might have too unless there is further rain as he loves the mud. The worry is he may struggle to lay up on genuine good ground and he's also lacking his regular partner Denis O'Regan.

Midnight Haze Represents Kim Bailey who won the 1990 running with Mr Frisk and the trainer has been fairly bullish about this one's chances recently. Not a complete no hoper but will have to produce a personal best to make the frame.

Vic Venturi Has failed to get round in the last two running's of the race and after disappointing at Leopardstown last time out behind Salsify, he can't be backed with any confidence.

In Compliance Finished a well beaten 13th last year when his suspect stamina was stretched to breaking point. Hasn't been in much form recently so will do well to beat last year's finishing position.

Viking Blond The season started well with a win at Chepstow but that was the only highlight and he can't be seriously fancied. The trainer's son Sam Twiston-Davies has chosen Hello Bud who is one of the outsiders!

Hello Bud Tremendous servant for connections who always runs well over these fences. Should produce a bold display for a long way again but his winning days are probably over I'm afraid as a 14-year-old.

Neptune Equester Was very well thought of earlier in the season by his trainer Brian Ellison. However, his recent form is not backing up the handler's regard for him and it will be a major shock if he gets involved at the business end of the race.

Conclusion: The recent drying ground has knocked my confidence a bit of my ante post wager on West End Rocker. However, I'm sticking with him as I am not convinced he needs soft ground and he looks sure to run well for his in form stable. My prediction is:
1 West End Rocker
2 Planet Of Sound
3 Ballabriggs
4 Shakalakaboomboom
5 Black Apalachi

Hell Just that lots to read, I rather go on a name I like...()

KILLYGLEN TO GAIN HIS REVENGE
By Nic Doggett


Synchronised

Derided as just a handicapper before impressive victories in Lexus Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup, where stamina was the order of the day. Niggled along from an early stage last month which would be a worry here given the often frantic early pace, but assuming he is fluent at the obstacles in the first mile, it's unlikely there will be many staying on better than him close home.

Ballabriggs

Last-year's hero is 10lbs higher 12 months on but has been aimed at the race all season and enjoyed a good blow out at Kelso (same prep race as last year) where he was in-front at the last but outspeeded close home. Relished the fences last year, is a big enough horse to handle the extra weight and a bold bid expected. Likely to be well-backed.

Weird Al

Disappointing on the whole given his talent, but record away from Cheltenham is actually better than he's given credit for, as he put up a good fight in the Betfair Bowl at Haydock in October. Pulled-up in Gold Cup last month (broke blood vessel) but has had this contest on the agenda for a while and no surprise to see him run a better race; has a bit to prove now though.

Neptune Collonges

Honest old stick, but hasn't found winning that easy of late, with just one victory to his name since February 2009. Has plenty of class, having won an Irish Hennessy as well as finishing third in a Gold Cup, and ran well on his latest start in the trial at Haydock, but hard to see him being able to lay up with the speed horses in the early stages.

Calgary Bay

Real stamp of a chaser, who was once described by Tony McCoy as the "most athletic big horse I've ridden", so no real surprise that this race has been on the agenda for the past two seasons. Only got as far as the fourth fence last year before falling however, the only time he has in 28 starts, so a slight question mark over these fences, but is in good form and will love good ground if the rain stays away. All wins at Doncaster or Cheltenham.

Alfa Beat

Iffy record since the turn of the year (unseated then pulled up) but the Kerry National winner is not one to take too lightly, given his record in big fields. Only tried this sort of trip once, when a fair fourth in the four miler at Cheltenham although he did seem to get tired up the hill. This flatter track might suit better and he handles any ground. Not ruled out.

Planet Of Sound

Likes good ground so any rain would be a negative, but has been given a chance by the handicapper as now only 4lb higher than when winning Haldon Gold Cup back in 2009. Lightly-raced this season, as has become the norm, but seemed to stay well enough in the Hennessy when second to Carruthers and not without a squeak.

Black Apalachi

A teenager now but seemed as good as ever when second to Prince De Beauchene (former National favourite before he was ruled out through injury) on his return from nearly two years off. Was second to Don't Push It in 2010, having taken a tumble when still in front the year before, and is often a great sight over these fences. Has plenty of competition for the lead however, and would prefer some rain.

Deep Purple

Always looked more of a speed horse so a pleasant surprise when he was victorious over 3m6f in the London National in December. Recent fall at Kempton not an ideal confidence boost ahead of this test, and does take a chance at some of his obstacles, so supporters may want to watch from behind their sofas. Plenty of talent though.

Junior

Aimed at this race all season and reappearance run over hurdles in February was bettered by a short-head second in the Grimthorpe Chase the following month. Looks on a fair mark, has experience of winning on the big stage (first horse to win at both Royal Ascot and the Cheltenham Festival) and has form on a variety of surfaces. Only negative would be that he hasn't seen these fences before.

Chicago Grey

Another having his first start over the National Fences but stays all day and runs this season give the impression that he will be teed up perfectly for this as his trainer won the race with Silver Birch in 2007. Often held-up off the pace, so wouldn't want to get detached with some sloppy jumping as he has before, but granted some luck he shouldn't be far away.

Tatenen

Has never won over further than 2m6f, indeed record over further reads 9-UR-PU-3-7, so hard to see how he will be a factor in the closing stages. Good jumper when on song but hasn't seen these fences before and has a profile which is hard to fancy.

Seabass

A surprising drifter all week for this race, which is hard to fathom given his progressive profile since the start of 2010, winning his last seven starts at various levels. Shot up the weights as a result but the fact that he could win over two miles when last seen in Grade Two company suggests he is still improving rapidly. Won a point-to-point over three miles and rider Katie Walsh, riding for her father, knows him well. Fascinating contender, but will he last home?

Shakalakaboomboom

Fair seventh in the Topham 12 months ago, especially considering the poor form that he had been in. In much better nick this time around, following up his Cheltenham win in December with a fine second to Calgary Bay the next month. Nice warm up over hurdles at Warwick last time should have him spot on for this and is proven on the big scene, winning a 24 runner race at the Punchestown Festival last season.

West End Rocker

Slammed the opposition when running away with the Becher in December, but that was on heavy ground and the winning margin may have been exaggerated. Is very much effective on this going however, and stays well, so hard to discount especially with his trainer in winning form this week. Good record under Wayne Hutchinson, winning four of five starts, compared to one out of 15 for other jockeys.

According To Pete

Like Calgary Bay, another good looker who jumps well and no disgrace in losing to Master Of The Hall at Kelso last month (Ballabriggs back in fourth). Slight concern would be that nine of his 11 wins have come on ground with soft or heavy somewhere in the description, so chance would be enhanced with some rain, but reliable, durable and not hard to see him running a big race.

On His Own

A whopping 23lb higher than when running away with the Thyestes Chase in January, but is only an eight-year-old so reasonable to expect that there is more to come and the leap up the handicap ensured he made the cut for this huge prize. Better ground here no issue (won on good ground at Ayr for Howard Johnson) and jockey has chosen him from several possible mounts. Should stay the trip and should be high on any shortlist despite his relative inexperience.

Always Right

Looked very promising about this time last year, when winning the Grimthorpe and finishing second in the Scottish National. Reappearance win at Kelso in December hinted at a fruitful year but weakened very quickly in two subsequent outings. Quite possible that he found the testing ground too much to handle in that class of race, so not one to ignore here now granted quicker going. Looks a lively outsider.

Cappa Bleu

The shortest-priced of the Evan Williams trio following a decent effort at Ascot behind Massini's Maguire, and interesting that Paul Moloney plumps to ride. Ran a fine race when third in the Welsh National, albeit a distant one, and worth remembering that he was touted as a future Gold Cup horse when winning the Foxhunters' at Cheltenham in 2009. Not been the easiest to keep right since but is lightly-raced for his age and mark of 147 shouldn't be an insurmountable barrier.

Rare Bob

Got tired when fifth behind West End Rocker in the Topham, but showed plenty of zest until the turn for home. Not always looked the most convincing in the finish (15 places compared to four wins) and all of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground, so whilst he looks on a fair mark he might not have conditions to suit even if his stamina holds out.

Organisedconfusion

Has been up and down in trip like a yo-yo but had a nice confidence booster when fifth at Gowran Park last month considering he had fallen at the first on his previous start. Won the Irish National last April so extreme trips are not an issue, and although he has another mile to travel here, it's not inconceivable that he'll stay, with the forecast good ground likely to help. Looks fairly handicapped to boot.

Treacle

Now 26lb higher in the handicap than when a winner at Gowran Park in October, and handicapper is taking no chances following his third to Quel Esprit in the Irish Hennessy. Although majority of his wins have come on testing going, he has won on good, and trainer has targeted this race since the horse was three! Tactically versatile so ticks quite a few boxes.

The Midnight Club

Sent off the 15/2 favourite for this race last year and ran well in sixth, especially given he was hampered at a crucial stage. Didn't look an obvious one to win this year on that evidence, but horses often improve for a look at these fences and didn't run badly in his trial which was the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Could do with some rain to help chance.

Mon Mome

Sprang a 100/1 surprise in 2009 and was still in touch when departing at the 26th fence a year later. Missed last-year's event but this has been the plan for a while, and whilst he hasn't been showing any sort of form since a good run on New Year's Day, it's worth remembering that the same could be said for when he won. Has 6lb less on his back this time around.

Arbor Supreme

Couple of hurdle starts over the winter have done a good job of protecting his handicap mark, but will need to jump better than last year when he departed three from home having missed out a few. Hasn't won for an awful long time (November 2008) but has plenty of stamina and interesting to see whether a first-time tongue-tie has a positive effect.

Sunnyhillboy

Hasn't always looked the easiest of rides but put his best foot forward for Alan Berry when storming up the Cheltenham hill to win the Kim Muir. Unchanged mark here (due to be 10lb higher in future) and he has an attractive weight, especially for a smallish horse, so whilst there is a feeling that he needs everything to drop right, he looks a lively outsider.

Killyglen

Was in the process of running a blinder when falling at the fourth-last 12 months ago, and this race has been on the agenda ever since judging by the number of runs over hurdles he has had. Interesting that a newly-applied tongue-tie seemed to bring about more improvement last time, and with his jockey already a winner of this race, he should show up very well. 5lb lower than last season.

Quiscover Fontaine

Not been over-raced for his age, but has won seven of his 16 starts albeit mainly over two miles. Didn't show much in a hot Leopardstown hurdle in January but more interesting on his Irish National fourth in April and looks to have had this contest as a target for a while. Sixth in Arkle on his sole visit to these shores, and although he might be running on empty latein the day, not one to discount completely.

Tharawaat

Blinkers dispensed with once again (record in them reads F-1-6-4-PU-3-7) and although he is only 6lb higher than his last win, he has looked a little lifeless of late. One-paced hurdles run at Fairyhouse should have put him spot on for this, but hard to fancy despite the skills of his canny trainer.

Becauseicouldntsee

Had a slight issue with the fence at the top of the hill, but bar that he jumped like a stag when cruelly picked up late on at Cheltenham last month by Sunnyhillboy. Was given a fine ride that day and this is obviously a tougher race, but stays well and although he only got as far as the second fence a year ago, it looks the sort of challenge he'll relish.

State Of Play

Record in this race reads 4-3-4 and his trainer seems to get him perfectly teed up for this every time. Like 12 months ago, he hasn't had a prep run, and although aged 12 he won't be getting any better, he looks one of the more likely finishers. Throw in the fact that this is his lowest mark in the race, and he can't be discounted despite Paul Moloney (who might have struggled to make the weight) jumping ship.

Swing Bill

Sports cheek-pieces for the first time following a lifeless run at Cheltenham last month, having previously been an impressive winner at that same track in November. That perhaps not the greatest race for the course, but is now slowly edging back down the weights and seemed to take to the challenge when fifth in the Topham at this meeting 12 months ago. Looks up against it however.

Postmaster

Flat-bred but has been holding his own at a lowly level over the past year, including wins at Bangor and, most recently Ludlow (in a Hunter Chase). Nice weight to carry for this test, but any rain would be a negative and might just struggle to assert any level of authority in a race of this class.

Giles Cross

Has been a brave runner-up in the past two Welsh Nationals at his favourite track (record at Chepstow reads 1-2-F-1-2-2) and would have been a much stronger fancy for this race had the forecast rains materialised earlier in the week. Interesting that Denis O'Regan gives up the ride (would have had to ride overweight) and this sure-footed jumper looks set for a good spin, however the fast early pace on quick ground may be his undoing.

Midnight Haze

Had a nice spin around the Cross Country course at Cheltenham last month (which does include replica National fences) where he just seemed to run out of puff late on. This flatter track should suit, having won all five races on pretty level courses, but is another who would want more rain in order to become a lively outsider.

Vic Venturi

Brought down at an early stage 12 months ago, and is now much lower in the handicap, so the former Becher winner is immediately of interest. Wasn't given a hard time when beaten in a quality Leopardstown Hunter Chase in February (winner Salsify went on to win at Cheltenham), and had previously shown his well-being in two point-to-point wins, so a big run is expected.

In Compliance

Well-beaten 13th in this a year ago and nothing in his form really suggests that this sort of extreme test is really his cup of tea, having never won past 2m6f. Handicapper is giving him a chance but essentially hard to fancy.

Viking Blond

Made an exciting chasing debut when jumping well and seeing off Alfie Spinner at Chepstow in October but hasn'tgone on since, including when sent off 6/1 favourite for the Welsh National. Pulled up that day, and stopped quite quickly at Ascot last time, so may need his own way in front which is unlikely to be easy in this field.

Hello Bud

Approaching retirement age but showed enough zest at Warwick in January when a close fifth to Hey Big Spender to suggest he's not ready for the field yet. Former Becher winner was fifth in this race in 2010, but pulled-up last season and although he stays four miles well, the feeling is that the final half-mile is just too much for him.

Neptune Equester

Solid dual-purpose horse who started the jumps season with a bang, including a win at Haydock in November. Form has subsequently dropped a level, albeit in better company, and disappointing that he didn't show much at Doncaster last month. Worse longshots around, but looks up against it from 5lb out of the weights.

Summary

Nine and ten-year-olds have dominated recent renewals, although the likelihood is that last-year's victor Ballabriggs will run a stormer having been readied for this season. One could do worse than side with Donald McCain's star, especially at double-figure odds, however KILLYGLEN was in the process of running a blinder last year and was far from beaten when departing four from home. This has been his target for a while, and a tongue-tie may eke out more improvement, so Stuart Crawford's ten-year-old gets the nod. The Irish challenge is strong, with Treacle, Organisedconfusion and Seabass all of interest, however the pick may be On His Own who is only eight and if he can overcome his inexperience, he has the potential to play a major hand. Of the major English stables, West End Rocker, Junior and Shakalakaboomboom are respected, but those Northern trainers are a canny bunch and a duo of According To Pete and Always Right should give backers a good run for their money.

1.45 8 – SIMONSIG, @ 1/2
2.15 3 – SPRINTER SACRE, @ 1/8
2.50 Treble : 1 – OSCAR WHISKY, @ 2/1
3.25 6EW – 4 – 5 ( 6EW – SAINT ARE, @ 12/1 )
4.15 27EW X 26 X 19 X 22 ( Nap : 27EW – KILLYGLEN, @ 16/1 )
5.05 2EW X 15 X 5 X 20 ( Next Best : 2EW – GIBB RIVER, @ 14/1 )
5.35 19EW X 10 X 12 ( 19 – THE NEW ONE, @ 6/1 )

Good punting !

AINTREE

PA
8,9 x 1,3 x 1,5 x 4,13 x 1,2,8,10,20 x 2,5,15 x 4,10,12,19.... 10%

POT
4 x field x 2,4,5,6,15 x field ... 5%