MR of Variety Club and Jackson

In the days of "race figures" I used my own ratings and it created good punting opportunities and I guess I was therefore ,what the in the states they term as handicapper.I have selfishly always resented the introduction of the MR system for removing much of that.
I also,however, believe that the fact that MR 's can reduce so easily is the single biggest door open to abuse in our racing.
If the US is more like our old "race figure" system,which it sounds like,it is time for me to seriously consider a move there,to be able to resume much easier winning ways,perhaps.

Ebony Flyer beat Igugu on the square and did so just when her wind was starting to go.

Igugu is a great horse, but when both horses were at the top of their game, Igugu could not live with Ebony Flyer over 8 furlongs.

Figures rely on a line horse. The line horse is selected by the handicapper. It is strictly his judgment. Numbers change dramatically depending on who that line horse is.

It is interesting that horses which are rated highly can run one lousy race after another and their number doesn't change, but if one line horse turns in a fluke performance, the horse that beat the line horse is rated based on the performance of the line horse and not the other good horses that ran down the track.

This cracks me up.

My favorite expression, one that figure filberts cringe at, is that figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Attention figure filberts:

Try this little exercise in futility on for size.

Toss the runner-up in the Majorca and pretend for the sake of humoring me that she didn't participate in the race.

Use the in-form de Kock filly Welwitschia (sp) as the line horse.

Then tell me how the rating escalates on Ebony Flyer.

a line horse is a horse which is consistent and tried over the distance etc..a horse making a fluke performance as u put it is highly unlikely to be used as a line horse

welwitschia has travelled from jhb to cape town and in the process registering her first career unplaced run therefore using it as the linehorse would be a mistake..in 2nd,3rd and 4th you beat horses rated 94,100 and 99..at level weights..look at all the information not just the parts you want to see..as i said in an earlier post..why didnt she run next to bravura and tales of bravery in the queens plate if she is to be a 113+- like they are??

She was hampered and eased in the Queens plate,would have been a good 2l closer at least imo

unfortunately excuses cant help with ratings..she must come out and prove she is above a 107..at the moment she hasnt..she is just beating fillies at level weights..hopefully she runs in durban without any excuses and proves she is a 113 or above by winning a gr1 race..maybe the gold challenge

imo ebony flyer is a better horse than igugu over a mile.everyone can disagree with me but i hv history on my side.lol

Barry Irwin Wrote:

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> Geez, even in athletics (track and field), which
> relies more heavily on the CLOCK than any other
> sport, does not base their ratings strictly on the
> frigging CLOCK. Ratings are based on what type of
> races have been won and which athletes finished in
> front of the other athletes.
>
Barry I agree. Sectional timing is not the instant answer for MR. With most world records if not all in athletics from 100m to 100mile races, the last half of the race was run at +- 5% quicker than the first half.
That means that if in the race they ran to slow, it will be a false run race that benefits the athlete that's better over a slightly shorter distance, and if they go to quick they will end up to slow and that is also a false run race and will benefit the athlete that's better over longer distance. So you can't even say that a race with a fast pacemaker is a true run race.

If they want to use sectional timing as a guide for merit ratings they will have to:

1) Do a lot of research regarding the best times at every course and distance based on what % each section was ran to be able to achieve the course best times, and they don't have that data, it will take years.

2) When they have that data they will need to apply it to the line horse(its already difficult to point the line horse) and see if he ran to slow or to fast to reach his optimal besttime, and I believe that most of the time the pace are to slow or to fast and that means that you can only use sec timing as a guide in a very few races.

Big waste of time trying to use it imho.

Justin I relish the rare opportunity to discuss the horsemanship angle with a figure filbert.

Your real question should not be the one you asked, but, rather, why she ran so poorly in the Queen's Plate given her other good performances.

The answer lies is the fact that the trainer pressed her too hard in her training and she was flat. When he backed off for the Majorca, she returned to form.

Horsemanship and figures rarely mix, because they are from two different perspectives.

When I first began to import horses from England and they ran out of their skins in California, the English handicappers attributed it to weak form in California. But what they didn't understand for years that there is a difference between European and USA racing. In Europe, class dominates. In USA style dominates, because of a combination of sharp turns, short stretches and fast tracks. Style trumps class in the US.

So believe me, I am used to dealing with handicappers worldwide that cannot see past the numbers.

From a horsemanship angle, what happened to the de Kock filly was a classic regression in form after a big comeback win. The whole notion of horses shipping from high altitude to sea level is ass backwards. It is a huge advantage, yet we read about how it is just the opposite when a horse gets beat!

Bringing a horse from altitude to sea level, world wide, is the biggest legal advantage available to a racehorse.

Barry Irwin Wrote:

---

> Bringing a horse from altitude to sea level, world
> wide, is the biggest legal advantage available to
> a racehorse.

Amazing how it's an excuse when the horse gets beat, and all the myriad times that horses have won doing exactly that are conveniently forgotten. Not all Gauteng horses that won in Cape Town were Horse Chestnut or Empress Club, and then of course there are the million and one Jhb-trained winners we've seen in Durban over the years.

Excuses, excuses.

justinv you say excuses cant help with ratings but in a prior post you make an excuse for welwitchita by saying she had to travel from gauteng to the cape...contradiction