The muppet at his very best

Seems to be flying these days! Hong Kong is the shittest place to punt on the planet, you miss the kick you are beat over so many distances

Been watching Purton and he reminds me of that other uk Muppet,  Ryan " Armchair " Moore , way overrated 

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Been watching Purton and he reminds me of that other uk Muppet,  Ryan " Armchair " Moore , way overrated 

How's that ride on the 14-10..... running up horses backsides the whole way down the straight.You would swear he has never ridden this course before yet he has been here for 10 years.
Craig you can't compare the two.Moore is definitely a class jockey.....Purton is just a punters nightmare.

 

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Been watching Purton and he reminds me of that other uk Muppet,  Ryan " Armchair " Moore , way overrated 


Thought you're going to say the other one's name is Anton.
Ryan is streets better than both of them. Champion! 

That is now Purton's fourth favourite to be beaten today.
Goes down a short head to a 30-1 shot.
My experiment could end today if his horse stays favourite in the last......it would be his 100th favourite he has ridden.

Day 26....0% for Zac today on favourites
5 favs for 0 winners and 2 other placing
0 odds on shots
100 favs for 25 wins and 60 in top 3
25% favs winning
60% favs placing
19 odds on shots for 8 winners and 4 placing
42% odds on shots winning
63% odds on shots placing

Ok...experiment over let's discuss the stats
His winning rides on favourites is 8% lower than the world average....not sure what the % favs win in HK but it should be very similar.
1 in 3 favourites win in horse racing and he is only riding 1 in 4 favourites to victory.
42% odds on winning.....remember an even money shot has 50% chance of winning so he is winning on odds on shots 8% lower than a 1-1 shot.
A 13-10 horse has about a 43.5% chance of winning.
2 of his 8 odds on winners have been 0-10......Ka Ying Rising.
I would say the average of odds on shots he has ridden must be around 6 or 7-10.
A 7-10 shot has 59% chance of winning.
So he is riding odds on shots to victory 17% lower than what he should be.

People will say he rides a lot of false favourites but that doesn't matter as when he rides a favourite it's because of the money punters have put on him.
And this is not a couple hundred thousand like in SA it's more like 50 million rand per race.
So is Zac 'The Muppet' Purton a punters friend or a punters nightmare?
It looks like you would make a decent profit laying all his rides on favourites.....but luckily for the bookmakers I don't think any bookie firm will let you lay a horse in Hong Kong.

FROM THE OFFICIAL HONG KONG WEBSITE


 

Oh ok so I'm 2% off then.
Only 6% worse than the world average then.
Another interesting thing I see there is that 13 jockeys have better winning percentage on favourites than Purton has.

According to their website 29% of favourites win... But when you ride three times as many favourites as anyone else it stands to reason you ride a lower percentage as anyone else

Remove all the class 4 and 5 odds on favourites ( false favourites) look at class 1,2 and 3 .
When you play exotic bets you have to put in a couple horses in class 4 and 5 races .Good luck if you bank a odds on in these races.
Class 1 and 2 races normally favourites have a good record .
 

Yip today.....class 4......the Muppet up...6-10....still running 

Already down to 25% winning favs before this meeting.
So far today 3 favs for 3 unplaced efforts.
Another fav in the last.... let's see how he goes.
Stats say he wins on this.