Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

heinrich wrote:

Couldn't disagree more! Surely in an sport where 80% of the races are won by less than 1Length...sure the distance run will....must play an Big role!!! If 2.4m = 1L than surely those who travel 3 wide around a turn(or even worse,both turns) at Greyville are at an Big disadvantage becoz of the extra ground covered.

TRIP HANDICAPPING

It's well recorded on the internet the effects of TH and there's even some scientific articles written on it aswell.I dont go into so much detail as the extra metres run(or even those travelling 2 wide) but when horses go 3 wide around a 2 turn track than it has to account for something, especially with onpace runners. Not so much backmarkers....but the effects of a wide trip on an on pace runner is Defnitely big.

DRAW STATISTICS

...can be very very misleading!!!! In any RACE there will be 3 or 4 with bad draws,doesn't matter if they have good or Bad form. All will go into stats...but what needs to be noted,is when horses with atleast decent form....get bad barriers. How do they run?! Where do they finish?! How did they finish?! Or when a horse with no form shows something from a bad draw, especially if it's against a pace bias and track bias (if there are any) on that day. Looking at the stats overall in that regard is a flaw, you have to 'pick and choose' so too speak.

Out the top of my mind....DOUBLE DREAM,RELEASE ME??? and MALCOLMS DREAM all won this weekend yet all had bad draws in their previous runs.

They either hard to work hard those 1st 200-400m in those races (to get their desired postions) and in doing so wasted energy that could've been saved till the end or the travelled wide. Many many things play a role in their next starts,but horses travelling 3 wide at Greyville (especially when pace is genuine) can surely represent big value next time out.

I've had debates about this exact topic too much to remember,so the easiest thing to do is just to have a test run....

Racing at FAIRVIEW tmrw

1)make a list of all horses that have had bad draws (or wide trips) in their previous runs (over CD preferably...or atleast on the polytrack)

2) remove all those with poor form

3) we see how the rest does

And this isn't even handicapping...just so on face value And we see how they do.Personally I can make examples of more than 20 horses per track (even at FAIRVIEW turf with the long straight) of where Draws are important (which are directly related to Distance travelled)

www.drf.com/news/can-trakus-data-identify-future-winners

When doing research on Trip Handicapping years back,I stumbled o this article and it changed things for me. Hopefully it can help a few on here aswell,even if just a little bit

heinrich wrote:

SHA TIN

RACE 5 # 7 LUCKY ETERNITY

Underlines what I was trying to say about the effect of a bad draw and a wide trip. Will sit much closer tmrw and should,at worst be 2 off the fence...

SWINGS.EX.TRF
ROV 7/2.3.6.8.1.10.12

Is what I'll be doing aswell as backing him (and maybe 2 and 3 if their prices are right) ?outright. He is a horse I'll follow over his next 3 starts IF HE DOES NOT win tmrw. There are a few others with similar criteria tmrw aswell,but he is an decent price

easy wrote:

Heinrich

some really great observations.

1: When Trakus was in its glory days I studied their data. At racecourse like Belmont and Aqueduct there really was no glaring side with regards to distance travelled having an effect on winning or losing.

2: One of my pet hates is the false rail in SA and how depending on its length (sometimes at turfontein it can be like 1000m) does that affect the overall distance of the race.

3: Stats are vital, and in the end they will prove correct. The issue with racing is everyone is looking for the solution to predict the future. However I agree one cannot use just stats as the guide.

Now I think we need to move onto what I feel is the greater issue. 90% (yep I know its a stat) of trainers when they have a "great horse" tell you in the interviews that "they train themselves"

That tells me that the difference then between them and other "trainers" is they have the ability to train horses of lesser ability.

Ive never understood why a horse rated 65 trained by a certain trainer runs in and out of form yet a horse rated the same trained by a "top trainer" runs consistently.

Horses of lesser ability don't run against champions, they run in their class YET some "trainers" still manage to run last in those races consistently.

Over the last 5 years we have used a number of trainers, most were friends that needed support and had for decades told us " if only I had the support and stock , I would be as good as De Kock" well I can tell you categorically that its NOT the case. I can provide spreadsheets of costs, returns, excuses, stories.

Support the smaller trainer they all say......there is NO such thing as a smaller trainer. There are trainers with ability and some without.

A top Aussie trainer once in an interview said " British trainers train the speed OUT of horses" right wrong or indifferent I believe there is an element of a trainers ability/methods that shapes a horses career.

There is a horse running in JHB at the moment. It's won 2 races in a row. Cape based horse moved to Summerveld and spent 7 months with a "trainer" there. Trainer told the owners "horse not able to ever see a racecourse" (I know took him months to figure it out) however there were 37 excuses and explanations (all sounding very believable) as to why this horse could not race. Moved to JHB wins 2 in a row and looks like will win a few more.

Stats matter, ability matters, jockey matters.

The draw can matter BUT again I agree with Heinrich, the pace of the race is really important.

JayPeg19 wrote:

Oscar, it really is not that difficult to take out Google Earth and do the calculation for yourself of the extra distance to travel from a 14 draw versus a 1 draw. But let me not stand in the way of you and Heinrich as you chase that elusive pot of gold. This is the lifeblood of the bookmaker class - fools on an errand.

Magi wrote:

Plenty of good stuff here, but I am fully with Heinrich here.... there is definitely a lot of value in evaluating past runs from bad draws especially if looking at horses that met previously. It is even better these days as one can watch replays of race in point.... too much info to type here .... but will try find a case or three in the coming weeks.