Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

oscar
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Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 1 week ago

Just a quick question.

Has anyone ever done a trial to see how many meters extra a horse racing 2 or 3 wide around the bend and then as they usually do fan to the outside in the home straight versus a horse that runs against the rail and stays close to the inside down the home straight has to run over the above two trips?

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naresh
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 1 week ago

#866353

The new Winning Form website has Sectional times and distance covered for all KZN and Western Cape meetings.

South African race courses are one of the few race courses worldwide to have a false rail. I seen plenty of horses win in other jurisdictions win from 2 or 3 wide but there is no false rail. We have a fascination with the false rail here....

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Dave Scott
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 1 week ago

#866354

Morning Oscar

I am sure Louis Goosen posted something along these lines many moons ago ?

Will try and find it .

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heinrich
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866358

oscar wrote:

Just a quick question.

Has anyone ever done a trial to see how many meters extra a horse racing 2 or 3 wide around the bend and then as they usually do fan to the outside in the home straight versus a horse that runs against the rail and stays close to the inside down the home straight has to run over the above two trips?

I researched this long ago,and found 2 papers written on this subject (I'm busy searching for them and will send them as soon as I get them) but travelling 2 wide around 2 bends = 1length lost.....3 wide = 2 lengths lost.Something similar like that. But if uneed to know now....u can do the following...Download an app called PUNTERS INTELLIGENCE from Google play. They do everything related to AUS racing and they cover sectional times and Distance travelled. You can use WARWICK FARM (becoz its tight as greyvilke) as an example and see the difference in distance travelled between horses travelling 2 wide and 3 wide. 8 feet = 2.4m = 1Length is the general scale. But it MATTERS ALOT..and its very underrated tool that is used....but it can easilybe seen (and used to great effect) with HK racing where they actually show how wide the horse ran.

Hope this helps. If I have time I'll dig up my research on this matter aswell and forward it

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JayPeg19
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866367

Trying to predict outcome from metres travelled is fools gold. The edge in such analysis is likely so trivial that it is already priced in by most participants and therefore will yield no to very low return. Horses which lead from a low barrier are always likely to travel less metres than any other horse in a race, but that does not imply they win more often or more than expectation.

Draw stats in SA are always incorrectly calculated as a strike rate (win% per starts) without any adjustment for field size. Unless you adjust for field size you under represent the expectation of success for wide draws and over represent expectation for low draws.

You can check the distance travelled data for yourself at www.winningpost.co.za (must register for a Hollywood account) through the Tracking Data tab. Take the Gold Challenge on Saturday as example: the spread of distance covered according to the sectional reports was a low of 1613.24m covered by Trip Of Fortune to 1618.85 by Safe Passage, while the winner Charles Dickens covered 1614.65m Exactly what you could make with that data is nothing, but good luck distilling anything of use from such data.

PS: be warned that any research done is likely on Hong Kong or Aussie racecourses without false rails and with different pace scenarios as a result, and therefore unlikely to yield anything constructive for the Greyville track. Ditto foe any research on dirt tracks in the US.

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heinrich
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866382

Couldn't disagree more! Surely in an sport where 80% of the races are won by less than 1Length...sure the distance run will....must play an Big role!!! If 2.4m = 1L than surely those who travel 3 wide around a turn(or even worse,both turns) at Greyville are at an Big disadvantage becoz of the extra ground covered.

TRIP HANDICAPPING

It's well recorded on the internet the effects of TH and there's even some scientific articles written on it aswell.I dont go into so much detail as the extra metres run(or even those travelling 2 wide) but when horses go 3 wide around a 2 turn track than it has to account for something, especially with onpace runners. Not so much backmarkers....but the effects of a wide trip on an on pace runner is Defnitely big.

DRAW STATISTICS

...can be very very misleading!!!! In any RACE there will be 3 or 4 with bad draws,doesn't matter if they have good or Bad form. All will go into stats...but what needs to be noted,is when horses with atleast decent form....get bad barriers. How do they run?! Where do they finish?! How did they finish?! Or when a horse with no form shows something from a bad draw, especially if it's against a pace bias and track bias (if there are any) on that day. Looking at the stats overall in that regard is a flaw, you have to 'pick and choose' so too speak.

Out the top of my mind....DOUBLE DREAM,RELEASE ME??? and MALCOLMS DREAM all won this weekend yet all had bad draws in their previous runs.

They either hard to work hard those 1st 200-400m in those races (to get their desired postions) and in doing so wasted energy that could've been saved till the end or the travelled wide. Many many things play a role in their next starts,but horses travelling 3 wide at Greyville (especially when pace is genuine) can surely represent big value next time out.

I've had debates about this exact topic too much to remember,so the easiest thing to do is just to have a test run....

Racing at FAIRVIEW tmrw

1)make a list of all horses that have had bad draws (or wide trips) in their previous runs (over CD preferably...or atleast on the polytrack)

2) remove all those with poor form

3) we see how the rest does

And this isn't even handicapping...just so on face value And we see how they do.Personally I can make examples of more than 20 horses per track (even at FAIRVIEW turf with the long straight) of where Draws are important (which are directly related to Distance travelled)

www.drf.com/news/can-trakus-data-identify-future-winners

When doing research on Trip Handicapping years back,I stumbled o this article and it changed things for me. Hopefully it can help a few on here aswell,even if just a little bit

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oscar
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866394

heinrich wrote:

Couldn't disagree more! Surely in an sport where 80% of the races are won by less than 1Length...sure the distance run will....must play an Big role!!! If 2.4m = 1L than surely those who travel 3 wide around a turn(or even worse,both turns) at Greyville are at an Big disadvantage becoz of the extra ground covered.

TRIP HANDICAPPING

It's well recorded on the internet the effects of TH and there's even some scientific articles written on it aswell.I dont go into so much detail as the extra metres run(or even those travelling 2 wide) but when horses go 3 wide around a 2 turn track than it has to account for something, especially with onpace runners. Not so much backmarkers....but the effects of a wide trip on an on pace runner is Defnitely big.

DRAW STATISTICS

...can be very very misleading!!!! In any RACE there will be 3 or 4 with bad draws,doesn't matter if they have good or Bad form. All will go into stats...but what needs to be noted,is when horses with atleast decent form....get bad barriers. How do they run?! Where do they finish?! How did they finish?! Or when a horse with no form shows something from a bad draw, especially if it's against a pace bias and track bias (if there are any) on that day. Looking at the stats overall in that regard is a flaw, you have to 'pick and choose' so too speak.

Out the top of my mind....DOUBLE DREAM,RELEASE ME??? and MALCOLMS DREAM all won this weekend yet all had bad draws in their previous runs.

They either hard to work hard those 1st 200-400m in those races (to get their desired postions) and in doing so wasted energy that could've been saved till the end or the travelled wide. Many many things play a role in their next starts,but horses travelling 3 wide at Greyville (especially when pace is genuine) can surely represent big value next time out.

I've had debates about this exact topic too much to remember,so the easiest thing to do is just to have a test run....

Racing at FAIRVIEW tmrw

1)make a list of all horses that have had bad draws (or wide trips) in their previous runs (over CD preferably...or atleast on the polytrack)

2) remove all those with poor form

3) we see how the rest does

And this isn't even handicapping...just so on face value And we see how they do.Personally I can make examples of more than 20 horses per track (even at FAIRVIEW turf with the long straight) of where Draws are important (which are directly related to Distance travelled)

www.drf.com/news/can-trakus-data-identify-future-winners

When doing research on Trip Handicapping years back,I stumbled o this article and it changed things for me. Hopefully it can help a few on here as well,even if just a little bit

Agree fully with you mate, I ignored the previous post. I honestly would really like to know if at Greyville they have tested the extra meters a horse would need to run in a few circumstances. I am not talking about which horse will win I would just love to know the extra distance any horse in those different scenarios would need to cover from the start to the finish line.

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JayPeg19
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866396

Oscar, it really is not that difficult to take out Google Earth and do the calculation for yourself of the extra distance to travel from a 14 draw versus a 1 draw. But let me not stand in the way of you and Heinrich as you chase that elusive pot of gold. This is the lifeblood of the bookmaker class - fools on an errand.

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fingers
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866399

LOL

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naresh
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866402

The Old Winning Form website gives you the percentages of winning draws of every race course in South Africa. How accurate it is, is another story....

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Pirhobeta
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866406

Really interesting thread... And some very good points raised.
I think that the mindset of a bad draw also affects the trainer's and jockeys.
So we have horses jumping slower and subsequently losing too much ground because they are slow into stride,
Conversely, jumping too fast and over racing. Or simply racing too wide for too long.
The amount of bumping at the start is also something that I'm not happy about, we see far too many horses taken out.
The less knowledgable jockeys cannot read the resulting pace, and then place the horse with too much to do, or blow the race in the start.
Greyville, too many jockeys kill the horse on the uphill before the straight trying to get into position.
I believe that when the horse is right, is when you have to try for the win, you cannot wait for the right draw because the horse is not a machine.
I think a good jock can counter a poor draw, obviously within limits, but a disadvantage is a disadvantage.

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Frodo
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Re: Greyville 1400-1600m draw bias in meters

2 years 6 days ago

#866409

Without getting personal :dry: - I think the original question was if anyone has ever done a trial (and I assume the question relates to local tracks) on the exact effect (in lengths) of being drawn 'nicely' as opposed to being drawn 'poorly' - and it looks like there are various articles on the WWW providing at least a version of the answer

The next question is (given you have this information) is 'what to do with it' - and here I agree that imo, there could be 'some' advantage in using this info - but to put it in hard, cold figures is not always possible - it is almost like trying to put a number on a jock's ability - yes, in general, some are ''better' than others - but by how much - and how does it play out in a specific race