Hollywoodbets Durban July Log 17 May

I remember when IGUGU won it had a SAFE PASSAGE and we did not drink SPARKLING WATER. 🥃

Krisg wrote:

Let me throw another curve ball.
Airways Law was my 1st choice, when I looked at the initial July norminatiins and didn't see it there, I was disappointed. Is there a chance he gets supplemented. I know he looks like a Poly Horse.

You need to look at the current merit ratings of the horses. You need to be higher than 116 in my opinion to get in or win one of the "Win and you in races" or preferential race. Airways Law rating is too low. Only can get in by winning the Cup Trial.

Only horses in recent memory that ran above their rating and then ran close uo in the July are,

Sushisan. Ran third in the Gold Challenge and second in the July to Eyeofthetiger.

Orbison. Won the Gold Challenge beating Pocket Power and company and ran fourth in the July.

I have mentioned Eton Square before.

Back in the day, Surfing Home ran fourth in the July has a 3yo old in its sixth start. It was pretty rare those days for horses with so less runs to run in the July and it never won any feature.

On another note, Wendywood ran in the July in just its third start. That definitely a record with so less runs and ended up finishing eight, I think.

Thank you Naresh, for that insight.

Thought Waterberry Lane's performance was eye-catching. Considering turned into the straight in last place, and for me, was probably finishing the fastest. First time going further than 1600m and on that, think both trainer and jockey will be optimistic about the horse seeing out the extra furlong.

From a punting perspective, think the Kannemeyer double Cosmic Highway (Scottsville Saturday) X Waterberry Lane is worth a punt.

Pretty sure I read somewhere that Waterbury pulled up lame or not striding out or something.

Sealegs wrote:

Pretty sure I read somewhere that Waterbury pulled up lame or not striding out or something.

THE VETERINARY SURGEON REPORTED :
a) WATERBERRY LANE : Not striding out left front

I would think not too serious - let's see what happens today with 2nd declarations

Does Waterberry Lane warrant inclusion on what's he's done thus far?

He hasn't won over 1400m. He's tried 2000m once and couldn't trouble the winner. Granted there'll be a swing in the weights with the horses that finished around him.

Brendanr wrote:

Does Waterberry Lane warrant inclusion on what's he's done thus far?

He hasn't won over 1400m. He's tried 2000m once and couldn't trouble the winner. Granted there'll be a swing in the weights with the horses that finished around him.

So running a neck behind Pomp and Power does not count ? - and depending on what the handicapper does, the 3yr-olds will all be carrying around 53 kgs

Frodo wrote:

Brendanr wrote:

Does Waterberry Lane warrant inclusion on what's he's done thus far?

He hasn't won over 1400m. He's tried 2000m once and couldn't trouble the winner. Granted there'll be a swing in the weights with the horses that finished around him.

So running a neck behind Pomp and Power does not count ? - and depending on what the handicapper does, the 3yr-olds will all be carrying around 53 kgs

I backed Waterberry Lane when it broke its maiden at 50/1 on the Polytrack. Goldcircle had an article yesterday that it just got the 2000m. If you look at its breeding on the dam side, you will find Travel In Front. Travel In Front was a Greyville specialist and could go a distance and Waterberry Lane best races has been at Greyville. 40/1 and 8/1 a place was available.

Eyeofthetiger ran fourth in the Daily News and won the July for the same trainer. Pomodoro ran fifth in the Daily News and won the July. I have been following Waterberry Lane and 8/1 a place was good value. Hopefully its lameness will not do harm.

Will Waterberry Lane be the first horse to win its maiden on the Polytrack and run in the July?

Brendanr wrote:

Does Waterberry Lane warrant inclusion on what's he's done thus far?

He hasn't won over 1400m. He's tried 2000m once and couldn't trouble the winner. Granted there'll be a swing in the weights with the horses that finished around him.

Two horses that spring to mind are Royal Chalice (1988 July winner) and Illustrador (1990 winner), almost certain both won over 1600m, but had never raced beyond 1600m before winning their respective July's. Open to correction, think the same applied to Flaming Rock (1991 winner).

He may not have troubled the winner, i think it was more to see whether he stays 2000m, and more importantly, his finishing effort, was he staying on/running on, or gasping for air and going backwards at the distance.

The July can be won by milers who can stay, it's not the most stamina demanding course, having said that, Waterberry Lane is bred to stay on the dame side being out of Fort Wood, so here's to hoping he makes the final field, and on Saturday's run, my humble opinion, he should get the extra.

Brendanr wrote:

Does Waterberry Lane warrant inclusion on what's he's done thus far?

He hasn't won over 1400m. He's tried 2000m once and couldn't trouble the winner. Granted there'll be a swing in the weights with the horses that finished around him.

Finished within 2 and a bit lengths behind 3 auto qualifiers and way ahead of another running on - The discretion of the panel would also favour the late Mr Rattray I'm sure .

Good points..

Undoubted counts that running close up to P and P and the other auto qualifiers was a good run. The line has to be drawn somewhere though.

Does the panel / should the panel, take into account who the owners are in determining a runner's merits?

To me it looks to be close up between Nebraas, Bingwa, Waterberry, Russian Rock, Sovereign Spirit, (Cup trial winner), (Jubilee winner) - for the remaining 1 or 2 spots, if all in the log currently take their places.