Sun Met latest

PeterD wrote:

Frodo wrote: Just looking at the entries again .... seems pretty strange that Sail South was never entered - won over 1600, very good run in the QP - what's to lose ?

R37600 supplementary entry fee plus R45600 = R83200.
Unlikely to stay 2000m

I realize that to supp him is unrealistic - however it he were mine, I would be kicking myself that I did not take the chance to enter him at first entry stage - gets 1600 and ran on best of all in the QP - who is to say that he would not have been a factor in a slow run 2000 ?

shrek wrote: Legal Eagle is the best horse in the country. The conditions of the race make him the horse to beat. He settles so well and can be ridden from almost anywhere. If he cracks a good draw he will have everything in his favour. After last Saturday's win I am amazed there is still 16/10 available on him. Whiskey Baron seems to be the unknown and has come on since gelding and I make him the biggest danger.

Have to agree on the Eagle (the 5/2 available last week before the QP now looks like daylight robbery) and 2000 certainly no problem - last year I think he was beaten by a combination of a slightly over-confident ride (hitting the front too soon? ) and a great run by Smart Call; Whiskey Baron will need to improve more to trouble him imo - I still think if Marinaresco can repeat his run in the Green Point, he is the only horse that might give the Eagle something to think about

KitKat wrote: Interesting comment by Jonno Snaith last Sat on USO. He said that it was worth taking a double on Its My Turn in the 4th onto the Met.Ran 3rd. Has been nominated and no problem with 2000m.

The Snaith stable definitely not at their best at the moment imo - certainly not close to the form that saw them bagging 8 winners on the Met card last year. Their horses are mostly running below par and out of 20 or so runners on QP day, they managed one winner (Bela Bela - and even she just got home under a determined ride).

Quite a few of their runners placed though and of course things might change in the next few weeks, but at the moment I am very hesitant to label anything of theirs and will be watching results closely leading up to Met Day

I believe the way Legal Eagle toyed with the field 16/10 is a gift price for the Met,i believe it will start in the red if a good draw is cracked.

Joey Ramsden has supplemented last Friday’s Jamaica Handicap winner Epona for the Grade 1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes at Kenilworth on Sun Met day – Saturday, 28 January. He has also put Supercilious, winner of a conditions plate last Saturday, into the prestigious 1600m race while Glen Kotzen has supplemented Party Crusher and Justin Snaith Fear Not who was fourth to Supercilious.
Snaith has also supplemented Copper Force for the Grade 1 Investec Cape Derby on the same card following the gelding’s impressive win in the 1400m Futura Handicap at the course last Friday when he fairly sprinted away in the last 100m to score by 2.25 lengths.
Frank Robinson has supplemented Winter Is Coming for the Derby after the colt floored the odds laid on Red Chesnut Road in the Racing.It’s A Rush Progress Plate over 1400m at Greyville on Monday.
There have been no supplementary entries for the Betting World Cape Flying Championship.
Meanwhile the final log for the R5-million Sun Met has been published and while the top two spots are still filled by Legal Eagle and Marinaresco respectively, Bela-Bela has moved from seventh place to No 3 while Whisky Baron has improved from 12th spot to No 5.

Final log for the Sun Met (tabulated under current position, position on 21 December, position on 2 December, age, sex, name, merit rating and trainer)

11/01 21/12 2/12 Age Sex Horse MR Trainer
1 1 1 5 G LEGAL EAGLE 123 Sean Tarry
2 2 2 4 G MARINARESCO 115 Candice Bass-Robinson
3 7 7 4 F BELA-BELA 109 Justin Snaith
4 4 4 6 G CAPTAIN AMERICA 116 Brett Crawford
5 12 20 4 G WHISKY BARON 110 Brett Crawford
6 3 3 4 G IT'S MY TURN 106 Justin Snaith
7 5 5 7 G MASTER SABINA 110 Geoff Woodruff
8 6 6 5 G THE CONGLOMERATE 107 Joey Ramsden
9 9 3 C GOLD STANDARD 108 Glen Kotzen
10 11 11 5 G MAC DE LAGO 114 Weiho Marwing
11 10 10 5 G FRENCH NAVY 113 Sean Tarry
12 14 12 4 C BRAZUCA (AUS) 109 Johan Janse van Vuuren
13 18 14 4 C BARITONE 105 Justin Snaith
14 19 18 5 G DEO JUVENTE 106 Geoff Woodruff
15 17 17 3 G BOLD REX 101 Mike de Kock
16 20 16 3 C HEAVENLY BLUE 100 Mike de Kock
17 13 15 4 C MAMBO MIME 99 Dean Kannemeyer
18 19 4 G CAPE SPEED 101 Dean Kannemeyer
19 4 G NEBULA 95 Brett Crawford
20 7 G DYNAMIC 95 Justin Snaith
3 C AL FAHAD 94 Mike de Kock
4 C MACDUFF 90 Joey Ramsden
4 G ROCKETBALL 95 Gavin van Zyl
5 G ST TROPEZ 92 Joey Ramsden
3 C ZODIAC RULER 97 Justin Snaith

Are we all missing something ... just had another bet on the Eagle at 18/10 :ohmy:

^ Yes some punters still having PTSD from the Eagle being humped in the Met last year. Will happen again IMO.

Can see a lot of hope & emotion creeping into proposed bets on Legal Eagle!

Arithmetically he has a 5% chance of winning if he lines up against 19 opponents before form comes into play. As much as we all like to discard the opposition they ARE still there as innumerable past results in any horse race will painfully attest.

The odds being offered suggest that the bookmakers believe he has about a 40% probability of winning the race @ 16/10. They believe, therefore, that he has a 60% chance of losing. So would you rather 'back' or 'lay'?

Oddsmakers almost always factor in the 'marketability' of a horse so, on this occasion, they are well aware that LE is one of the 'go to' horses based on its past record allied to both public and professional oddsmaker opinions.

But if we focus on the likelihood of him actually winning after eliminating 'noise' (popularity, hype, past record, trainer record, jockey, draw, bookmaker margin etc.) then his realistic odds would probably be more in the 2/1 region.

There are still a number of material issues which could affect the outcome and which still remain unknown. (Which is why ante-post betting is such a hazardous venture!)

1.) The health of the horse (eg If he injures himself tomorrow your ante-post bet is toast).
2.) Draw (what happens if he draws 20?)
3.) Weather ( a roaring south easter - which is a distinct possibility - impairs his chances as the jury is still out as to whether he is as good over 2000m as he indisputably is over a mile).
4.) Betting still remains a function primarily of 'weight of money'. Throwing money at an outcome has no effect on the performance of the athlete & is merely an indicator of opinion. Which neatly explains why a handful of bookmakers can survive against thousands of punters.....

Possibly the best way in which to approach backing a horse of this nature would be to seek out a potential double. Should you click your first leg the odds shift in your favour - allowing you the opportunity to lay back to your bookmaker enough of LE so as to 'save' your stake (or more if you so wish) and have yourself a free bet.

Then you can go to the Met and have a really good day without fretting about your settling! If the horse arrives you can splash out on some French champagne and regale everyone about your big win.

If it gets beat you can rather order some South African sparkling as your bank balance is still intact and you are a lot better off than all of the despondent losing punters around you.

Win, lose or draw - taking 16/10 in a field of 20 very live runners can hardly be described as astute punting when you can probably get the same odds on a multitude of races this very afternoon where at least half the field is useless, crippled or half fit.

Or, in the antepost market, if Marina, Whisky and/or Bela are withdrawn

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Thanks again Garrick in this case agree, i am normally with the fav and zoro likes it as much as we liked Igugu but in this case i have a big niggle .........

I agree with most of what Garrick is saying ..... of of course one has to weigh up the perceived 'advantage' of taking an Ante-Post bet at 'more generous' odds, against the possibility of the horse suffering a set back, or drawing badly etc.

For me (and I really don't believe I have any sentimental attachment to Legal Eagle), the only thing that can stop him winning is some sort of injury - not the wind, not even being drawn 20 out of 20 (as I think he has the early speed to overcome any draw) - his form and the race conditions more than justify his current odds.

And as I have stated a couple of times, I think the only horse that could maybe run him down, is Marinaresco - so I have taken cover on him

I guess we will see on the 28th .... :huh:

Thats my niggle Frodo