2016 Durban July Log

Mac
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

Based on his last two runs The Conglomerate won't be accepted despite having a higher MR than those who may be accepted with lower MR's.

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Mac
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617448

At All is Secret - the connections can request that Nightingale has her MR increased to about 106 because that is wHat she ran to approx.

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bayern
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617451

I remember when i first joined ABC, Ilha Bela was my July fancy and someone warned that the owner was not too keen to have her three year old filly running in the July because it is generally a rough race. That was admittedly when there was 20 runners back then. Maybe the owner has had a change of heart now that there is only 16 runners?

In our local morning paper, The Mercury, this morning, the Bass stable are quietly confident of a big run from Marinaresco, it's just to qualify him for the race now.

If Nightingale wins the Woolavington, would the owner want her horse taking her place in the July, or be put away for the Cape summer season, after all, the horse would have exceeded expectations.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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Frodo
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago - 9 years 3 weeks ago

#617453

bayern wrote: I remember when i first joined ABC, Ilha Bela was my July fancy and someone warned that the owner was not too keen to have her three year old filly running in the July because it is generally a rough race. That was admittedly when there was 20 runners back then. Maybe the owner has had a change of heart now that there is only 16 runners?

In our local morning paper, The Mercury, this morning, the Bass stable are quietly confident of a big run from Marinaresco, it's just to qualify him for the race now.

If Nightingale wins the Woolavington, would the owner want her horse taking her place in the July, or be put away for the Cape summer season, after all, the horse would have exceeded expectations.

I can't recall (but could be wrong) that Mrs Slack has won the July in her colors - so I suppose it depends on how much she wants to win it vs long term goals for the filly

Regarding Marinaresco, imo he can't be any value at the current price - I have him running to around 97 on Saturday - and even at official ratings at 101, he would still be 2kg's out at the weights even if LE comes out :ohmy:

Last edit: 9 years 3 weeks ago by Frodo.

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MasterOfMyFate
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617535

See the 10/1 about Marinaresco is gone. I took him at 10/1. For me, he's the only horse with the raw ability to trouble Black Arthur. Horse is loaded with ability. Happy for all my eggs to be in the 3yo's basket. They look freaking special, to my eye anyway.

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Frodo
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617559

Both Black Arthur and Marinaresco in the same boat as was the case with Futura when he was a 3 yr old; lots of Ante-Post interest while he still had to qualify; I'm opposing both BA and M because of the same reasons I opposed F - but have to admit that F left me blushing when he ran a great 3rd (or was it 4th); anyway my point is that imo while neither BA nor M can not be discounted, to me they are much too short in the '(Ante-Post :ohmy: ) market :dry:

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Whiteline Fever
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617562

If Legal Eagle and French Navy both run, what would Mac De Lago carry?

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Frodo
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617578

Whiteline Fever wrote: If Legal Eagle and French Navy both run, what would Mac De Lago carry?

According to me, at current ratings he would carry 53.5 and if LE comes out, he would carry 56 ...

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Whiteline Fever
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617594

Frodo wrote:

Whiteline Fever wrote: If Legal Eagle and French Navy both run, what would Mac De Lago carry?

According to me, at current ratings he would carry 53.5 and if LE comes out, he would carry 56 ...

Thanks Frodo. Sounds like an excellent bet to me. I do prefer the 3 year olds this year, but out of the 3 older horses I think would have a chance, at 53.5 must be a massive runner.

Was 4l of LE in the Met receiving 2kgs and missed the kick at the start and was at the back of the field vs LE who shot out the gates.

MDL comeback run 1.5l behind French Navy receiving 2kgs.

last run, again 1.5l behind FN and 4l behind LE receiving 2kgs.

Looking at HW opened at 40s but 14/1 could still be value.

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Mac
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago - 9 years 3 weeks ago

#617605

If Legal Eagle is not going on an overseas campaign there is no single reason why he should not run in the July. He has it at his mercy and at what a price!

Last edit: 9 years 3 weeks ago by Mac.

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Frodo
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617608

Whiteline Fever wrote:

Frodo wrote:

Whiteline Fever wrote: If Legal Eagle and French Navy both run, what would Mac De Lago carry?

According to me, at current ratings he would carry 53.5 and if LE comes out, he would carry 56 ...

Thanks Frodo. Sounds like an excellent bet to me. I do prefer the 3 year olds this year, but out of the 3 older horses I think would have a chance, at 53.5 must be a massive runner.

Was 4l of LE in the Met receiving 2kgs and missed the kick at the start and was at the back of the field vs LE who shot out the gates.

MDL comeback run 1.5l behind French Navy receiving 2kgs.

last run, again 1.5l behind FN and 4l behind LE receiving 2kgs.

Looking at HW opened at 40s but 14/1 could still be value.

Chuffed that I got some 28's and 25's a while back

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PeterD
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Re: 2016 Durban July Log

9 years 3 weeks ago

#617616

Mac wrote: If Legal Eagle is not going on an overseas campaign there is no single reason why he should not run in the July. He has it at his mercy and at what a price!

LE carries 60kg and is rated 120 - well exposed and not likely to run above 120.
Black Arthur will carry 53kg and is rated 106, but has significant scope to run above that.
He needs to run 109 or better (3 lb WFA included) ie. A mere 3 lb improvement on his current rating to be competitive with LE.
LE definitely does not have the race " at his mercy" although would be a big runner.

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