2016 Durban July Log

I think Abashiri's price at 11/2 is very attractive now.

MasterOfMyFate wrote: I think Abashiri's price at 11/2 is very attractive now.

7/1 on Betxchange. The 40/1 looks decent EW value on Deo Juvente.

Yes Black Arthur was impressive, but I'm with Bob - I thought Bela-Bela's performance was slightly better; I am still hopeful that Rabada could turn the tables on Black Arthur (weights would be the key) as R was bustled by 'Superman' to overcome the draw, and sat too close to a fast pace imo

Knee-jerk reaction by the bookies to two GR 2 races imo and absolutely no value about Black Arthur now - I'd much rather have the 20/1 abt Rabada :ohmy:

Mac wrote: Schhh... Nightingale

Mac wrote: Just taken 75/1 Nightingale. But I thought she would be about 200/1

Now 20/1

www.africanbettingclan.com/index.php/kun...-durban-july-entries

Mac wrote:

Mac wrote: Schhh... Nightingale

Mac wrote: Just taken 75/1 Nightingale. But I thought she would be about 200/1

Now 20/1

www.africanbettingclan.com/index.php/kun...-durban-july-entries

Well spotted Mac

Does anybody have an opinion on the ratings achieved in the 2 Guineas and the Drill Hall? I have Black Arthur at 103 and Bela-Bela at 104 - find the Drill Hall difficult to rate.....if Ice Machine and The Conglomerate ran close to their ratings, New Predator ran above 110, but that means that both Triptique and Saratoga Dancer ran about 10 points above theirs .... so probably more accurate to assume that Ice Machine ran about 10 points below his best, which would make NP about 103 (same as Black Arthur)

Frodo wrote: Yes Black Arthur was impressive, but I'm with Bob - I thought Bela-Bela's performance was slightly better; I am still hopeful that Rabada could turn the tables on Black Arthur (weights would be the key) as R was bustled by 'Superman' to overcome the draw, and sat too close to a fast pace imo

Knee-jerk reaction by the bookies to two GR 2 races imo and absolutely no value about Black Arthur now - I'd much rather have the 20/1 abt Rabada :ohmy:

with rabada got 16/1 was only happy to take the 20/1 also saw silver mountain @ 33/1 my only two antepost bets

Frodo wrote: Does anybody have an opinion on the ratings achieved in the 2 Guineas and the Drill Hall? I have Black Arthur at 103 and Bela-Bela at 104 - find the Drill Hall difficult to rate.....if Ice Machine and The Conglomerate ran close to their ratings, New Predator ran above 110, but that means that both Triptique and Saratoga Dancer ran about 10 points above theirs .... so probably more accurate to assume that Ice Machine ran about 10 points below his best, which would make NP about 103 (same as Black Arthur)

I think New Predator is the line-horse, which I agree, raises both Triptique and Saratoga Dancer 10lb and 6lb higher respectively.



(Please don't read: But I had to use a large margin of error of 5lb to find the first multiple fulcrum horses in the first discretionary five placings which was found in the first four. Of the four New Predator yielded the lowest absolute sum of the deviations).

Thanks Mac, I guess time will tell

Frodo wrote:

Mac wrote:

Mac wrote: Schhh... Nightingale

Mac wrote: Just taken 75/1 Nightingale. But I thought she would be about 200/1

Now 20/1

www.africanbettingclan.com/index.php/kun...-durban-july-entries

Well spotted Mac

Now <15/1

What is the qualifying merit rating to get a run in the July?

Very nice spot Mac on Nightingale. If she keeps improving as she is, then she has a great chance in the July.