Vaal Sand Thursday

Bob Brogan wrote: Not sure i understand the weights carried in the 7th?

What`s the wfa for a 4yo over a 6 yo at this time of year?

4yr olds currently get 0.5 kg's over 1600 - can't see anything 'funny' in the weights ?

what should be key is what Masnoon and Battle in Seattle actually achieved in their last wins - will check my figures later

Frodo wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: Not sure i understand the weights carried in the 7th?

What`s the wfa for a 4yo over a 6 yo at this time of year?

4yr olds currently get 0.5 kg's over 1600 - can't see anything 'funny' in the weights ?

what should be key is what Masnoon and Battle in Seattle actually achieved in their last wins - will check my figures later

Thanks

Will never understand 4yo's getting wfa

40/1 dbl Cumberland into commodore al .

Race3
Ew value bet at 6/1,Tzitzikama Fire.

eastside
Captain's Cup - Has a Jockey that understands this course - Draw and good trainer - go close -
Run For Roses - late starter but family have sand feet - do not leave out
Seven Kingdoms - priced at 10's - Worth an E/w
battle of Alma - go very close
Guy from Dubai - best e/w and place bet
battle in seattle - bolted in last time - no reason why he won't triumph again today.
HORSE RACING > VAAL SAND
Leg 1 : Race 2 [3]
Leg 2 : Race 3 [7, 10]
Leg 3 : Race 4 [2, 8]
Leg 4 : Race 5 [2, 6]
Leg 5 : Race 6 [5]
Leg 6 : Race 7 [2, 5]
Leg 7 : Race 8 [3, 6, 12] pa R48

Bi-pot
ck 6
HORSE RACING > BIPOT - VAAL SAND
Leg 1 : Race 1 [5]
Leg 2 : Race 2 [2, 3]
Leg 3 : Race 3 [1, 7, 10]
Leg 4 : Race 4 [2, 8]
Leg 5 : Race 5 [2, 6]
Leg 6 : Race 6 [4, 5] R48

HI all
I think Lerena is going to have a good day

Mostly small but competitive looking field, complicated further by the usual number of sand debutantes, leading to many different possible outcomes - I have polished my crystal ball and this is what it says:

R1: Outcome hinges on how well the two sand debutantes Carole Bouquet and Angel's Smile take to the surface - no guarantee that either will act, so for me Pride in Battle the obvious inclusion in all BP's - holds most of the others who have exposed sand form bar for that last run which I'm going to hope something was amiss.

R2: All I Want 2 from 2 this trip, MR has been increased, but he may be up to it from a good draw; Where's My Chop often thereabouts and can't be ignored over a trip in which he finished in the first 3 in 9 of his 12 tries; for me Captain's Cup too short in the betting after a moderate first try on the sand, I thought Fleetwood Mac was good value at 10's and could easily surprise in his first try on the sand

R3: This could be tough; First Sign ran a poor race on Saturday, but apparently had some excuses, still looks better over 1000, but should at least place; Coptic Cross comes out of some strong formlines, but much too short in the betting imo taking the draw into account - most of the others (bar San Salvador) also looks to prefer 1000 - and then there is the first timer who looks bred for more ground - who knows?

R4: Lowly fillies and mares; Lizzie's Legs fair comeback run after a rest, but no star, should find a place at least; not a lot between stable companions Danielle and Ice Goddess, but IG has the plum draw and looks good value imo at 40's; AP's Lily has a very wide draw as does the other sand debutante Wensleydale - so not for me; Seven Kingdoms I think has a place chance; Slick Deputy imo better over 1000, but is not badly handicapped her and another who is looking for place money

R5: Another competitive handicap; Thrush comes off a good maiden win, and is my first choice, but there are quite a few others who could pick up the pieces if he fails; these include Battle of Alma, Return to the Sun, Just Africa and La Tasca; Cumberland very short in the betting imo - watch out for the 50/1 Wild Thing, who ran an improved race for his new stable on Saturday

R6: Conditions Plate, where the inconsistent Guy from Dubai is best in - so IF he can produce his best, he should win but I'm prepared to take him on; Wellesley very well priced at 16's imo and can upset if repeating his penultimate run; both Big Shot and Mirage Drive have good form over this trip, but will need the better handicapped runners to fail to feature - not easy

R7: Only 6 face the starter and for me Battle of Seattle ran to a 88 last time, so this is where I am looking for a banker.

R8: Tough race to close - can't find too many that could be ignored - load up

Might put up that crystal ball for sale come the end of the day - enjoy

I see the money came for Pride of Battle race1 6/1 looked to big

nice write up and speculation gents help me find a winner this first race albeit i went very light but a win is a win. won well too hey.

I think Thrust is a decent sort and will be hard to beat. Showed a bit of class in the last race

ShezaPunter wrote: I think Thrust is a decent sort and will be hard to beat. Showed a bit of class in the last race

I agree and form franked with MAGICS good run next time against Goosens first timer

7/2 looed value yesterday

all i want should cum home smoking