Vaal Sand 11/9/14
- gnieman
-
- New Member
-
- Thanks: 0
- colors
-
- New Member
-
- Thanks: 0
- Colin Dav
-
- Premium Member
-
- Posts: 854
- Thanks: 213
- flaunt
-
- Premium Member
-
- Posts: 881
- Thanks: 83
- colors
-
- New Member
-
- Thanks: 0
- Winning_Post
-
- New Member
-
- Thanks: 0
- colors
-
- New Member
-
- Thanks: 0
- Englander
-
- Platinum Member
-
- Posts: 11538
- Thanks: 829
Re: Vaal Sand 11/9/14
10 years 9 months ago - 10 years 9 months ago
Apologies for the length, especially R4. read or don't as you wish of course 
Someone mentioned Lerena and like last time someone did, I will "challenge" it lol and say I think Striker the one more likely to have winners today. Could finish with the last 4 plus possible others. Another LG treble not beyond the bounds of possibility either...
Not only are the scratchings annoying from a betting angle but these scrawls are hard enough and time consuming enough without having to edit them frequently!! Anyway...
R1 By Jove got a silver on sand debut lto but the form of that race doesn't look strong to me and she has been rested 13 weeks since. Those with more experience (card numbers 1-4 and 6) have had plenty chances and I would not be surprised if none of them hit the quartet, particularly as the Erasmus and Francis stables don't seem to be firing on all cylinders currently. A Nee A, Chennai Babe, Lady Eleanor and Crimson Oak all have something in the breeding to imply they have a chance of taking to the surface. Of the four, I prefer CO . She has had the experience of a turf run and to an extent the jury remains out as she was reported not striding that day. Spies has two out and I think the early market is showing a preference for Fire Dancing under Naude. if anything, on breeding, there could be a negative and I much prefer Wolverina under Chambers who has some decent pointers in the breeding (backed but scratched previously). Another sand debutant who, on breeding, could have a good chance of taking to the surface is Twilight Tiger and for me this is the one most likely to cause a surprise. On debut, ROH was a decent 4l 4th to the well supported Sarve, the winner though is trained by Spies so that should give their stable an indication as to the chances of their two runners here. Wolverina x Twilight Tiger x Ride Of Honour x Crimson Oak
R2 Trip Tease x Blazing Al x Salute The Sun x Hang Fire x Commissioner Street x Chief Sioux
R3 If Winter Choice takes to the surface and is fit and well following a 28 week rest then she could win convincingly but she is a short price for a sand debutant with, if anything, the breeding indicating a possible negative. That said, JJV had two out and assuming he had the choice Lerena went with WC. Prior to the scratching of Midnite Spirit, it was interesting to me that in her 4 runs Lerena had been up twice and Striker up twice but, despite seemingly having a decent chance. both jocks were booked elsewhere. It is possible though that MS was always a likely scratching and that influenced the jockey bookings. The other sand debutant, Rebel Magic is from the Zaki yard with Munger up. Although there is a possible positive in the breeding I assume Lerena could have taken this ride if he so wished. Weekend Special finished ahead of Societi lto but that was over 1200 and she has been more than a little inconsistent recently, easier to oppose here. Missmasala has been rested 16 weeks since winning on sand debut, but even with a feather weight I doubt that form will prove strong enough here. That leaves only the two LG runners and I expect Societi to again come out the better of the two particularly with Striker returning to ride her while Dean is up on She's A Tiger. My hunch is there is confidence in the stable that WC will have no problem with the surface and is fit and ready but still I am just not convinced 100% and would rather play the in form card with LG and Striker so... Societi x She's A Tiger x Winter Choice
R4 I assume like the bookies, at first glance at the card the attention goes to the SJG/Striker combo on Mind Games and think it could be a foregone conclusion. It may prove to be the case but on closer inspection there appears to be a lot for MG to prove. the d is the biggest question and I am far from convinced the horse will see it out with any great effect, Striker will no doubt help but in 1 d run and 3 over 1400 he has been reported as fading or tiring badly on each occasion. Last time he attempted 1400 he was 8.25l behind Woodstock Express and 3.75l adrift of War Trail. All 4 of those runs were on the turf but lto on the sand, he was again beaten by WT, 4l, albeit over 1000. Being drawn widest of the 11 won't help. Particularly given the price, and despite the decent recent form of the stable and this very poor looking field, I'll look elsewhere. Dream Hunter makes his stable debut for the LG yard and has some consistent turf form. If taking to the sand then he must have a good chance but, though there is a positive in the breeding, I am not convinced he will enjoy the surface and the fact that his full sister (Spiced Gold) also showed fair turf form but was beaten 11.75l (1000) and 28l (1600) on her 2 attempts here only adds to those doubts. A draw of 10/11, Sampson on the stablemate and a 27 week rest only adds to the concerns. Possible LG may just be using this as a dual hope/fact finding mission, if he takes to the sand then he wins, if not then he knows that now and will have improved the horse's fitness, watch for his comments but, for me, again given a price on the short side, I'll continue to search! Son Of A P has failed in each of his 5 efforts on c and seems better at Bingo but if he can reproduce the form of his 7l 5th to Impeccable then he could be in the mix come the finish given the overall strength of the field... against a few of the same rivals he was beaten 50l next time out here, both were over 1800. A somewhat typical example of a few horses from the stable who are completely punter unfriendly. Impossible to know what your going to get, highlighted by the fact the horse then ran a close up 2nd at Bingo over 2200 (lto). Not going to be a particularly big price here so for me not worth the risk and therefore he will probably win. Cooda is another sand debutant where although there is a positive in the breeding, I am not convinced he will take to the surface and his turf form has been poor, not for me. Still a chance that MG's stablemate Fields of Glory will improve, excuses on debut over this d on the turf and though well beaten on sand debut the 1000 was possibly too short. Rested 16 weeks since and David up, no superstar in the making but in this field, with the stable in good form, he could feature if there is more to come though you would think Striker would be on the stable elect. Khalil, Tribal Guard and Dashing Blade have all had enough chances to show some ability and failed to do so, passes. And so we are left with only 3, the trifecta??? hmmmm lol. Ocean's Blitz would also have fallen into the pass catagory but for showing surprise improvement lto when a 7.5l 5th over 1450. Prior to that run he had been closely matched with the 3 "passes" but his time lto was approximately 4.5 seconds quicker than his only previous attempt over c/d. Where the improvement cane from who knows? An L Erasmus trained horse. In that last run, he was 4l behind Woodstock Express. Remains to be seen if he can repeat or go on from that run, particularly over 150 further and the stable "form" uninspiring of late. Romios is yet another with form that would usually make him an automatic pass, the reason he is not are 3fold, the poor field, he may be worth one last risk at this d and his effort lto. He has usually campaigned over the sprints but in one run over 1700, though well beaten (24l) as usual, he was drawn 12/13 in a WR race (Vaal turf). His only other run over more than 1200 was here lto and though beaten 10.25l on some tenuous lines he would not be too far off SOAP on the latter's best c effort here, the run behind Impeccable. The lines through Impeccable (and Tripswitch) also put the other LG horse, Dontbeamoegoe, in the picture, He was also much improved lto and finished 6.15l behind Impeccable (3.75l behind War trail) lto over c/d. The key to his chances will probably be at the start as he is usually very slow away, if he can keep it to a 1 or 2l then I think he will probably win, more than that and he might find himself at the back of the field and that will obviously make things tougher. I will include him in LG accies and if my life depended on it then I would probably go with him but, not for the first time lol, as it doesn't and given the poor field let's take the idiot route and see if OB can go on from the improvement lto and get Erasmus back in the winner's box... Ocean's Blitz x Don'tbeamoegoe x Romios
R5 For me, the exacta is likely to be filled by Creative Stripe and Perfect Trip. By my questionable calculations, PT is now 7.5kgs better off for 4.3l with CS. However, I think CS is probably stronger over the 1600 and with Striker aboard I'll go with CS to complete the treble. Lord Hawke looks held by CS, Arctic Hooligan is a watching brief for me back over this longer trip, Paintyourface could run better under Lerena than he has in recent efforts. Die Kat will probably be running on back down in trip but he only came out the maidens 5 runs back. over c/d, when beating Johnny Chestnut. Admittedly that came off a 30 week break but his winning margin was only 0.25l and Impeccable beat the same horse 3 runs back by 1.5l. Impeccable, who looks well held by Rheims on the run behind Facebook, is now 7.5kgs better off with DK. On a line through Jewel Of The Stage, Skyfall looks closely matched with PT and from a good draw in 2 could challenge but he was well beaten lto when reported not striding and has now had consecutive 16 and 10 week breaks and might need this run. Golden Dollar's recent form is very poor and looks well held, as does Mirak though the latter improved lto over 2000, and Club Flag has shown little in 4 c runs and although the stable has hit form recently, it is hard to see him featuring... CREATIVE STRIPE x PERFECT TRIP x SKYFALL
R6 Assuming he had the choice then possibly the most telling factor is Striker taking the ride on Brooks Club following his win on the horse on the turf lto. There is not likely to be much between Panjo, Shadow Line and Captain Haddock based on their meeting over c/d back in early August. Panjo won well that day under a good ride from PS, whether David can do the same with the weight swings remains to be seen but I marginally favour one of the other two, SL, who was also returning from a short rest when they last met, has run well again since, gets Lerena back up and has the 1 box. Samogan has to be respected but I do think he might find one or two of these too good. Stablemate Always Al returns to the c for the first time in 2 years but did win 2 of his 3 visits here and over this d has only finished outside of the top 3 once in 8 attempts. One has to assume the stable has a preference for Samogan but AA should not be discounted lightly, Henry Higgins is unlikely to win imo but his c record and the stable firing currently gives him a chance... BROOKS-CLUB x SHADOW LINE x PANJO
R7 If not suffering from 2nd run after a rest and assuming all is well then I think Jackodore could win this with relative comfort. Euphoria is the only potential danger for me, she was well beaten in her only sand run to date but that was a listed event and she is representing a strong combo with a positive in the breeding. That said, I am not convinced she will be the strongest of sand runners and I would rather take Break Of Dawn and All in The Mind for the places... JACKODORE x BREAK OF DAWN x ALL IN THE MIND
R8 Finish with an overall weak looking field and for me the exacta should be a doddle! Stay Amazed should stay the d and with Striker up and the 1 box she looks like the one they have to beat... and, assuming SA does stay, then the only one, barring a complete unfathomable, who I think can beat her is Sweet On You but given the draw I think that very unlikely. That poor draw could make SOY vulnerable but I just can't see any obvious one to challenge and if I were to do a trifecta the one I would throw in is Buddy's Falcon who has just two bronzes for her efforts in 36 runs, though in these weak fields she often features a little more prominently than the bare figures suggest, will also do an R1 e/w on her... STAY AMAZED x SWEET ON YOU x BUDDY'S FALCON
Be(s)t of luck to all
Someone mentioned Lerena and like last time someone did, I will "challenge" it lol and say I think Striker the one more likely to have winners today. Could finish with the last 4 plus possible others. Another LG treble not beyond the bounds of possibility either...
Not only are the scratchings annoying from a betting angle but these scrawls are hard enough and time consuming enough without having to edit them frequently!! Anyway...
R1 By Jove got a silver on sand debut lto but the form of that race doesn't look strong to me and she has been rested 13 weeks since. Those with more experience (card numbers 1-4 and 6) have had plenty chances and I would not be surprised if none of them hit the quartet, particularly as the Erasmus and Francis stables don't seem to be firing on all cylinders currently. A Nee A, Chennai Babe, Lady Eleanor and Crimson Oak all have something in the breeding to imply they have a chance of taking to the surface. Of the four, I prefer CO . She has had the experience of a turf run and to an extent the jury remains out as she was reported not striding that day. Spies has two out and I think the early market is showing a preference for Fire Dancing under Naude. if anything, on breeding, there could be a negative and I much prefer Wolverina under Chambers who has some decent pointers in the breeding (backed but scratched previously). Another sand debutant who, on breeding, could have a good chance of taking to the surface is Twilight Tiger and for me this is the one most likely to cause a surprise. On debut, ROH was a decent 4l 4th to the well supported Sarve, the winner though is trained by Spies so that should give their stable an indication as to the chances of their two runners here. Wolverina x Twilight Tiger x Ride Of Honour x Crimson Oak
R2 Trip Tease x Blazing Al x Salute The Sun x Hang Fire x Commissioner Street x Chief Sioux
R3 If Winter Choice takes to the surface and is fit and well following a 28 week rest then she could win convincingly but she is a short price for a sand debutant with, if anything, the breeding indicating a possible negative. That said, JJV had two out and assuming he had the choice Lerena went with WC. Prior to the scratching of Midnite Spirit, it was interesting to me that in her 4 runs Lerena had been up twice and Striker up twice but, despite seemingly having a decent chance. both jocks were booked elsewhere. It is possible though that MS was always a likely scratching and that influenced the jockey bookings. The other sand debutant, Rebel Magic is from the Zaki yard with Munger up. Although there is a possible positive in the breeding I assume Lerena could have taken this ride if he so wished. Weekend Special finished ahead of Societi lto but that was over 1200 and she has been more than a little inconsistent recently, easier to oppose here. Missmasala has been rested 16 weeks since winning on sand debut, but even with a feather weight I doubt that form will prove strong enough here. That leaves only the two LG runners and I expect Societi to again come out the better of the two particularly with Striker returning to ride her while Dean is up on She's A Tiger. My hunch is there is confidence in the stable that WC will have no problem with the surface and is fit and ready but still I am just not convinced 100% and would rather play the in form card with LG and Striker so... Societi x She's A Tiger x Winter Choice
R4 I assume like the bookies, at first glance at the card the attention goes to the SJG/Striker combo on Mind Games and think it could be a foregone conclusion. It may prove to be the case but on closer inspection there appears to be a lot for MG to prove. the d is the biggest question and I am far from convinced the horse will see it out with any great effect, Striker will no doubt help but in 1 d run and 3 over 1400 he has been reported as fading or tiring badly on each occasion. Last time he attempted 1400 he was 8.25l behind Woodstock Express and 3.75l adrift of War Trail. All 4 of those runs were on the turf but lto on the sand, he was again beaten by WT, 4l, albeit over 1000. Being drawn widest of the 11 won't help. Particularly given the price, and despite the decent recent form of the stable and this very poor looking field, I'll look elsewhere. Dream Hunter makes his stable debut for the LG yard and has some consistent turf form. If taking to the sand then he must have a good chance but, though there is a positive in the breeding, I am not convinced he will enjoy the surface and the fact that his full sister (Spiced Gold) also showed fair turf form but was beaten 11.75l (1000) and 28l (1600) on her 2 attempts here only adds to those doubts. A draw of 10/11, Sampson on the stablemate and a 27 week rest only adds to the concerns. Possible LG may just be using this as a dual hope/fact finding mission, if he takes to the sand then he wins, if not then he knows that now and will have improved the horse's fitness, watch for his comments but, for me, again given a price on the short side, I'll continue to search! Son Of A P has failed in each of his 5 efforts on c and seems better at Bingo but if he can reproduce the form of his 7l 5th to Impeccable then he could be in the mix come the finish given the overall strength of the field... against a few of the same rivals he was beaten 50l next time out here, both were over 1800. A somewhat typical example of a few horses from the stable who are completely punter unfriendly. Impossible to know what your going to get, highlighted by the fact the horse then ran a close up 2nd at Bingo over 2200 (lto). Not going to be a particularly big price here so for me not worth the risk and therefore he will probably win. Cooda is another sand debutant where although there is a positive in the breeding, I am not convinced he will take to the surface and his turf form has been poor, not for me. Still a chance that MG's stablemate Fields of Glory will improve, excuses on debut over this d on the turf and though well beaten on sand debut the 1000 was possibly too short. Rested 16 weeks since and David up, no superstar in the making but in this field, with the stable in good form, he could feature if there is more to come though you would think Striker would be on the stable elect. Khalil, Tribal Guard and Dashing Blade have all had enough chances to show some ability and failed to do so, passes. And so we are left with only 3, the trifecta??? hmmmm lol. Ocean's Blitz would also have fallen into the pass catagory but for showing surprise improvement lto when a 7.5l 5th over 1450. Prior to that run he had been closely matched with the 3 "passes" but his time lto was approximately 4.5 seconds quicker than his only previous attempt over c/d. Where the improvement cane from who knows? An L Erasmus trained horse. In that last run, he was 4l behind Woodstock Express. Remains to be seen if he can repeat or go on from that run, particularly over 150 further and the stable "form" uninspiring of late. Romios is yet another with form that would usually make him an automatic pass, the reason he is not are 3fold, the poor field, he may be worth one last risk at this d and his effort lto. He has usually campaigned over the sprints but in one run over 1700, though well beaten (24l) as usual, he was drawn 12/13 in a WR race (Vaal turf). His only other run over more than 1200 was here lto and though beaten 10.25l on some tenuous lines he would not be too far off SOAP on the latter's best c effort here, the run behind Impeccable. The lines through Impeccable (and Tripswitch) also put the other LG horse, Dontbeamoegoe, in the picture, He was also much improved lto and finished 6.15l behind Impeccable (3.75l behind War trail) lto over c/d. The key to his chances will probably be at the start as he is usually very slow away, if he can keep it to a 1 or 2l then I think he will probably win, more than that and he might find himself at the back of the field and that will obviously make things tougher. I will include him in LG accies and if my life depended on it then I would probably go with him but, not for the first time lol, as it doesn't and given the poor field let's take the idiot route and see if OB can go on from the improvement lto and get Erasmus back in the winner's box... Ocean's Blitz x Don'tbeamoegoe x Romios
R5 For me, the exacta is likely to be filled by Creative Stripe and Perfect Trip. By my questionable calculations, PT is now 7.5kgs better off for 4.3l with CS. However, I think CS is probably stronger over the 1600 and with Striker aboard I'll go with CS to complete the treble. Lord Hawke looks held by CS, Arctic Hooligan is a watching brief for me back over this longer trip, Paintyourface could run better under Lerena than he has in recent efforts. Die Kat will probably be running on back down in trip but he only came out the maidens 5 runs back. over c/d, when beating Johnny Chestnut. Admittedly that came off a 30 week break but his winning margin was only 0.25l and Impeccable beat the same horse 3 runs back by 1.5l. Impeccable, who looks well held by Rheims on the run behind Facebook, is now 7.5kgs better off with DK. On a line through Jewel Of The Stage, Skyfall looks closely matched with PT and from a good draw in 2 could challenge but he was well beaten lto when reported not striding and has now had consecutive 16 and 10 week breaks and might need this run. Golden Dollar's recent form is very poor and looks well held, as does Mirak though the latter improved lto over 2000, and Club Flag has shown little in 4 c runs and although the stable has hit form recently, it is hard to see him featuring... CREATIVE STRIPE x PERFECT TRIP x SKYFALL
R6 Assuming he had the choice then possibly the most telling factor is Striker taking the ride on Brooks Club following his win on the horse on the turf lto. There is not likely to be much between Panjo, Shadow Line and Captain Haddock based on their meeting over c/d back in early August. Panjo won well that day under a good ride from PS, whether David can do the same with the weight swings remains to be seen but I marginally favour one of the other two, SL, who was also returning from a short rest when they last met, has run well again since, gets Lerena back up and has the 1 box. Samogan has to be respected but I do think he might find one or two of these too good. Stablemate Always Al returns to the c for the first time in 2 years but did win 2 of his 3 visits here and over this d has only finished outside of the top 3 once in 8 attempts. One has to assume the stable has a preference for Samogan but AA should not be discounted lightly, Henry Higgins is unlikely to win imo but his c record and the stable firing currently gives him a chance... BROOKS-CLUB x SHADOW LINE x PANJO
R7 If not suffering from 2nd run after a rest and assuming all is well then I think Jackodore could win this with relative comfort. Euphoria is the only potential danger for me, she was well beaten in her only sand run to date but that was a listed event and she is representing a strong combo with a positive in the breeding. That said, I am not convinced she will be the strongest of sand runners and I would rather take Break Of Dawn and All in The Mind for the places... JACKODORE x BREAK OF DAWN x ALL IN THE MIND
R8 Finish with an overall weak looking field and for me the exacta should be a doddle! Stay Amazed should stay the d and with Striker up and the 1 box she looks like the one they have to beat... and, assuming SA does stay, then the only one, barring a complete unfathomable, who I think can beat her is Sweet On You but given the draw I think that very unlikely. That poor draw could make SOY vulnerable but I just can't see any obvious one to challenge and if I were to do a trifecta the one I would throw in is Buddy's Falcon who has just two bronzes for her efforts in 36 runs, though in these weak fields she often features a little more prominently than the bare figures suggest, will also do an R1 e/w on her... STAY AMAZED x SWEET ON YOU x BUDDY'S FALCON
Be(s)t of luck to all
Last edit: 10 years 9 months ago by Englander.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TNaicker
-
- Platinum Member
-
- Posts: 6803
- Thanks: 2221
- Winning_Post
-
- New Member
-
- Thanks: 0
- Frodo
-
- Platinum Member
-
- Posts: 13143
- Thanks: 3040
Re: Vaal Sand 11/9/14
10 years 9 months ago - 10 years 9 months ago
Sorry - seems to have repeated much of the Engelsman's waffle 
Nice looking card, with some challenging races imo:
R1: Open - who knows with the Spies first timers
, of the raced runners, Ride of Honour made a good debut and is my slight preference to By Jove, I also hold a candle for the unfancied Twilight Tiger - last run too far and tries the sand for the first time, by Tiger Ridge, so should like the surface, a must for trifectas and quartets imo. Ignoring the first timers, I would go Ride of Honour, By Jove and Twilight Tiger
R2: Would be nice to hear from LG, Trip Tease the obvious one, but this is a handicap and he would need to be at the top of his game to make it 6 in a row, if he is not quite ready, any of Hang Fire, Salute the Sun or Blazing Al could take advantage; Giving TT the benefit of the doubt, from Hang Fire, Salute the Sun and Blazing Al
R3: At the weights, Winter Star looks a certainty, but comes off a longish rest, so much will depend on how ready she is and if she takes to the sand - also the trip looks short of her best - so too many negatives imo to be so short in the betting - Societi loves this trip and is racing fit, so is my first choice; Rebel Magic is also racing fit and could challenge if she takes to the surface, if the handicapper is right, Missmasala has something to find at these weights. Society, Winter Star, Rebel Magic
R4: Very tough race imo - Dream Hunter the best horse in the race, but jockey arrangements suggest that he may need this - however this is such a weak lot, that he may still win even if 5 lengths off his best. Real stamina doubts imo about Mind Games, so I would not be surprised if a runner in double figure odds pop up - of those I prefer Cooda (by Albert Hall, so could appreciate the sand) and Romios (made up some ground over 1450 last time and the 400 to finish time is not too bad when compared to others in this race. Cooda, Romios, Dream Hunter
R5 Interesting handicap - Creative Stripe is on a roll, but has been given 8 points for his narrow last win, so for me I think Perfect Trip is weighted to beat him today. Lord Hawke tries the blinkers and only needs a little improvement to also match Creative Stripe at the weights, so not to be ignored. The others seem to have their work cut out imo; Die Kat for me is too high in the handicap (he beat Johnny Chestnut by a shd, while Impeccable beat JC by more than a length, yet DK has to give I 8 kg's :huh:), Mirak could surprise me, but I think he needs more ground, Paintyourface on a line through Samogan should also struggle to beat Perfect Trip, who is my choice from Creative Stripe and Lord Hawke
R6: Very competitive Pinnacle Stakes, Shadow Line should be cherry ripe and is my narrow first choice, but none of the others could be classed as no-hopers; Brooks Club returns to the sand and always puts up an honest performance, so must have a chance again, Panjo won a nice race last time, but could be slightly outclassed at these weights, as would be the case with Samogan. Always Al has won twice over this trip and must have a chance as well. Shadow Line, Always Al, Brooks Club
R7: Jackodore the standout, if she does not deliver, anything is possible imo; Elusive Spirit is useful and if she takes to the sand could surprise, while Euphoria has had one unplaced run on the surface, plus a widish draw, which puts me off a little. Peep Show tries the sand, but needs big improvement to feature at these weights imo. Jackodore, Elusive Spirit, Euphoria
R8: Another standout bet imo is Stay Amazed; she face a very weak looking lot where imo the only possible dangers could be first timer Celtic Heroine (but I think she would have to be quite good to beat SA) and Var Countess - who may improve on the sand. Stay Amazed, ??, ??
Enjoy
Nice looking card, with some challenging races imo:
R1: Open - who knows with the Spies first timers
, of the raced runners, Ride of Honour made a good debut and is my slight preference to By Jove, I also hold a candle for the unfancied Twilight Tiger - last run too far and tries the sand for the first time, by Tiger Ridge, so should like the surface, a must for trifectas and quartets imo. Ignoring the first timers, I would go Ride of Honour, By Jove and Twilight TigerR2: Would be nice to hear from LG, Trip Tease the obvious one, but this is a handicap and he would need to be at the top of his game to make it 6 in a row, if he is not quite ready, any of Hang Fire, Salute the Sun or Blazing Al could take advantage; Giving TT the benefit of the doubt, from Hang Fire, Salute the Sun and Blazing Al
R3: At the weights, Winter Star looks a certainty, but comes off a longish rest, so much will depend on how ready she is and if she takes to the sand - also the trip looks short of her best - so too many negatives imo to be so short in the betting - Societi loves this trip and is racing fit, so is my first choice; Rebel Magic is also racing fit and could challenge if she takes to the surface, if the handicapper is right, Missmasala has something to find at these weights. Society, Winter Star, Rebel Magic
R4: Very tough race imo - Dream Hunter the best horse in the race, but jockey arrangements suggest that he may need this - however this is such a weak lot, that he may still win even if 5 lengths off his best. Real stamina doubts imo about Mind Games, so I would not be surprised if a runner in double figure odds pop up - of those I prefer Cooda (by Albert Hall, so could appreciate the sand) and Romios (made up some ground over 1450 last time and the 400 to finish time is not too bad when compared to others in this race. Cooda, Romios, Dream Hunter
R5 Interesting handicap - Creative Stripe is on a roll, but has been given 8 points for his narrow last win, so for me I think Perfect Trip is weighted to beat him today. Lord Hawke tries the blinkers and only needs a little improvement to also match Creative Stripe at the weights, so not to be ignored. The others seem to have their work cut out imo; Die Kat for me is too high in the handicap (he beat Johnny Chestnut by a shd, while Impeccable beat JC by more than a length, yet DK has to give I 8 kg's :huh:), Mirak could surprise me, but I think he needs more ground, Paintyourface on a line through Samogan should also struggle to beat Perfect Trip, who is my choice from Creative Stripe and Lord Hawke
R6: Very competitive Pinnacle Stakes, Shadow Line should be cherry ripe and is my narrow first choice, but none of the others could be classed as no-hopers; Brooks Club returns to the sand and always puts up an honest performance, so must have a chance again, Panjo won a nice race last time, but could be slightly outclassed at these weights, as would be the case with Samogan. Always Al has won twice over this trip and must have a chance as well. Shadow Line, Always Al, Brooks Club
R7: Jackodore the standout, if she does not deliver, anything is possible imo; Elusive Spirit is useful and if she takes to the sand could surprise, while Euphoria has had one unplaced run on the surface, plus a widish draw, which puts me off a little. Peep Show tries the sand, but needs big improvement to feature at these weights imo. Jackodore, Elusive Spirit, Euphoria
R8: Another standout bet imo is Stay Amazed; she face a very weak looking lot where imo the only possible dangers could be first timer Celtic Heroine (but I think she would have to be quite good to beat SA) and Var Countess - who may improve on the sand. Stay Amazed, ??, ??
Enjoy
Last edit: 10 years 9 months ago by Frodo.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Deeno
-
- Platinum Member
-
- Posts: 8174
- Thanks: 483
