Question for Higher Grade Punters...

I couldn't sleep last night, so instead of counting sheep I thought about the following scenario. Imagine a horse race, there are two main contenders, lets call them Greg's Bucks and Engelsman Praat Twak for interest sake. The rest of the field are fairly weak and so the bookies have priced up our two main contenders as joint favourites at 2-1, each are roughly roughly a 33% shot. Now our two contenders have exactly the same ability, they both have a national leader as a jockey, are well drawn and are well prepped for the race. You can't tell them apart. Now watch what happens to the price during the morning of the race...

The owner and connections of the horse Greg's Bucks are well healed financially. They also like to bet their fancies and tell all their friends and acquaintances that they have a live runner. The owners have also been on a hot streak with their tips to friends and acquaintances lately and so they all jump on the new tip, one by one. As the money gradually poors in for Greg's Bucks the bookies get nervous and start to sharpen the price, from 2-1 to 18/10 to 15/10 and just before they jump, the alcohol is talking and the confidence grows and even more money comes in five minutes before the jump, when the starting price finally settles at 12/10.

Now Engelsman Praat Twak's owners and connections are new to the game and are not as well financially healed as Greg's Buck's connections. The owners also like to keep their live runners to themselves and have been burned lately by backing horses they thought were good things. So very little money goes onto Engelsman Praat Twak. They are just hoping for a good run and will be happy with some stake money. So during the morning the price drifts gradually out to 7-2.

So which horse do we bet on? Extra marks will be given for good reasons...The answer to follow after I've read some of your posts

hedge 7/2 and 15/10 ? what you get

your forgetting the built in bookmakers % usually about 2% so your betting a 33.3% but the bookies think that it has a 31% chance of winning,so your on a loser straight away,unless you have an edge over the bookies

just thought i would confuse things ()

15/10 the trainer or those who knw......wouldt back the horse if the horse is not ready to win imho

this is good question. normally the punter who is not getting any inside money will follow the money be cause to him it seem the one stable like their horse and the other stable is no confident, this may be also explain why many many favourites shorten drastically and the connections is saying is no our money. the bookies are clever

No brainer. The value is with the 7-2 shot. In the scenario that you have sketched, fair price on both horses should be about 5-2. If you encounter a hundred such races and always back the 7-2 shot, you will end up ahead. On the other hand, backing the 12-10 horse will land you in the poorhouse

just the question homepunt. you sit at home and you like the 2/1 shot that go drift 7/2.

do you say hell here is the value

or do you say what is wrong with these horse that it drift so bad?

after race is easy to say value

IF he win

I say most people get nervous when horse drift may be i am wrong it make me nervous

This is a no brainer as Homepunt says, you would always have to back the English - particularly one that talks a lot of sense (care LD, could offend someone with that name )

You find the best one of the rest that are fairly weak and do it each-way and hope its a race in South Africa <

Englander, it has been edited for our more sensitive English viewers... Hibs and Scotia must consider a parental guidance option on this site like my DSTV has.

Nonsense is the same as sh1t LD, I shall be presenting the issue to Parliament later

35000/10000
15000/10000
profit 4100

Flash Harry Wrote:

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> just the question homepunt. you sit at home and
> you like the 2/1 shot that go drift 7/2.
>
> do you say hell here is the value
>
> or do you say what is wrong with these horse that
> it drift so bad?
>
> after race is easy to say value
>
> IF he win
>
> I say most people get nervous when horse drift may
> be i am wrong it make me nervous

That is a valid point Flash. However, after 4 decades of punting the ponies, a drift from 2-1 to 7-2 will not alarm me to much. A drift to say 8-1 is another matter though.