Vaal Sand Thursday 22 Aug

shrek Wrote:

---

> (oscar Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Shrek pa? Please mate,
>
>
> Just finalizing it will post it in about half an
> hour. (tu)


Well mine comes to R3024 with one banker :S

Frodo Wrote:

---

> shrek Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > (oscar Wrote:
> >
>

---

>
> >

---

> > > Shrek pa? Please mate,
> >
> >
> > Just finalizing it will post it in about half
> an
> > hour. (tu)
>
>
> Well mine comes to R3024 with one banker :S

Is that banker PANJO? Hell he won so easily last time and with that draw....

Vaal Sand 22nd August 2013

Good morning clanners, P.A and Jackpot my selections today so no Pick6 for me but for those who are taking one, best of luck!!

P.A : 1 x 2;5;11 x 3;5 x 2;3;5;6 x 6 x 1;7 x 12 Cost R48.00 (tu) Go mad...

Jackpot : 3;5 x 1;2;3;5;6;7 x 6 x 1;3;4;5;6;7;8 Cost R84.00 100%

The best bet and the value considering all the factors and it's his 3rd run after a rest claiming 4kg's with a Super win last time out and clearly leaps and bounds better than his competition today is Race 8 MR ALFONSO @ 10/1 :

Good luck to all with runners today and once again thanks to THH, Englander and Loopy for guiding us in the right direction... always appreciated fellas.

Frodo Wrote:

---

> shrek Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > (oscar Wrote:
> >
>

---

>
> >

---

> > > Shrek pa? Please mate,
> >
> >
> > Just finalizing it will post it in about half
> an
> > hour. (tu)
>
>
> Well mine comes to R3024 with one banker :S


Very difficult card managed to trim mine down to R972 also with one banker:
Leg 1: 5
Leg 2: 5,8,11
Leg 3: 1,2,5
Leg 4: 1,6,12
Leg 5: 1,5,6
Leg 6: 1,5,10
Leg 7: 3,4,6,8

I recon with what Darryl said about Velddrifter he must be a massive runner today I see he has shortened to 5/1 now.

My 2 value horses for the day are in Race 1 Golden Dollar, ran a much better race when trying the surface and with bling up, depending on how good the first timers are, could go close and at 16/1 could represent some value. The other is in the very very open Race 3, Royal Quest ran a decent debut on the Flamingo Sand, if she takes to the surface here as well could be a runner with not a lot in the race and again the 10/1 is worth an EW bet.

My EW yankee for the day:
Race 1: 3 Golden Dollar
Race 3: 11 Royal Quest
Race 4: 5 Velddrifter
Race 7: 10 Blue Concorde.

Play well but tread carefully. (tu)

it's not that Mr Alfonso has a 37,5% place probability it is % of the Super Rules Mr Alfonso qualifies for. statistically horses with a higher Super Rule % will place more often over time, so the higher the % the higher the probability statistically. essentially when we pick bankers for PA we want the form rules and the Super Rules to align, otherwise we have to go wider in that leg.
R2 &R3 & R4 examples where they align and allows short selecting...1 or 2 choices for the PA

They are still being refined ( by venue/ class / track conditions / distane, etc. But this is the direction we are going...soon also to add the "intent" only and avg distance rating.

please do read the "Ratings explained" page and let me know if you have further queries. you can also email me @ Sean@LogicFinValue.com

Regards,

Loopy

> Clear a mud :S
>
> Let's just look at Race 8 today - you have:
>
> 8 12 MR ALFONSO Franklin Maleking 24 Lucky
> Houdalakis 18 37.5%
> 8 3 GABRONZA Gavin Lerena 23.5 Mike Azzie 5 50.0%
> 8 4 MAJI MOTO S'Manga Khumalo 21 Leon Erasmus 11
> 62.5%
> 8 6 STAVINSKY Hennie Greyling 19 Leon Erasmus 4
> 50.0%
> 8 2 PRINCESS ALBERTA Fanie Chambers 17 Corne Spies
> 17 37.5%
> 8 17 THE DISCIPLE _Reserve 15.5 Leon Erasmus 14
> 62.5%
> 8 13 ANGEL GABRIEL Robbie Fradd 15 St John Gray 15
> 62.5%
> 8 15 BLACK PEPPER Deon Sampson 14 Louis Goosen 6
> 25.0%
> 8 8 SHINE TIGER Piere Strydom 13.5 Dominic Zaki 12
> 37.5%
> 8 11 LORD DUBOIS Sherman Brown 13 Leon Erasmus 1
> 37.5%
> 8 9 MEN AND MOUNTAINS Donavan Yeo 12 Leon Erasmus
> 9 37.5%
> 8 16 MBOWENI Evert Pheiffer 11.5 Leon Erasmus 2
> 25.0%
> 8 10 AUTHENTICATED Collen Thabana 10 Lucky
> Houdalakis 13 50.0%
> 8 1 LUXARDO Wesley Marwing 6 Mark Dixon 8 37.5%
>
> So Mr Alfonso is your top rating (24)? But it only
> has a 37.5% chance of placing, correct? So for the
> PA you would include those with the higher
> percentages (e.g. Maji Moto and Angel Gabriel -
> both have percentages of 62.5%), but for the P6
> you would prefer Mr Alfonso and Gabronza in front
> of Maji Moto?

Aloha bay big price put and take guys

Ratings PA would like something like this,

1,5 x 8 x 2,3 x 1,3,2,12 x 8,6,9,1,4 x 4,3,5,6,1 x 12,3,4,6 for R1600

mr hawaii Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > shrek Wrote:
> >
>

---

>
> >

---

> > > (oscar Wrote:
> > >
> >
>

---

>
> >
> > >

---

> > > > Shrek pa? Please mate,
> > >
> > >
> > > Just finalizing it will post it in about half
> > an
> > > hour. (tu)
> >
> >
> > Well mine comes to R3024 with one banker :S
>
> Is that banker PANJO? Hell he won so easily last
> time and with that draw....


Nope, I backed Panjo up with Funny Glory, but have to admit that Panjo loooks the part - it's just that him being slow out on a few occasions and looking for some value......I ended up banking Olympic Spring, because I really don't fancy anything else in the race :S

3,5
2,3,4,5,8,9,10
1,2,3
1,2,3,5,6,12
6
3,4,5,10
4,8,12

Backing that one up with the 'favorites' one:

5
2,5,8,9
2,3
1,12
6
1,5,10
3,4,8

Winning_Post Wrote:

---

> Vaal Sand 22nd August 2013
>
> Good morning clanners, P.A and Jackpot my
> selections today so no Pick6 for me but for those
> who are taking one, best of luck!!
>
> P.A : 1 x 2;5;11 x 3;5 x 2;3;5;6 x 6 x 1;7 x 12
> Cost R48.00 (tu) Go mad...
>
> Jackpot : 3;5 x 1;2;3;5;6;7 x 6 x 1;3;4;5;6;7;8
> Cost R84.00 100%
>
> The best bet and the value considering all the
> factors and it's his 3rd run after a rest claiming
> 4kg's with a Super win last time out and clearly
> leaps and bounds better than his competition today
> is Race 8 MR ALFONSO @ 10/1 :
>
> Good luck to all with runners today and once again
> thanks to THH, Englander and Loopy for guiding us
> in the right direction... always appreciated
> fellas.

Regarding my earlier post Race 8 MR ALFONSO looking at sand form over 1000m - Just so you all know how i thumb sucked this one, lol!!

GABRONZA 60.00 kgs 1000m VSN time 59.07 - level weights today @ 60.00 kgs
MAJI MOTO 56.50 kgs 1000m VSN time 58.58 - 3.50 kgs up on his best time over C&D
STAVINSKY 53.50 kgs 1000m VSN time 58.62 - 8.00 kgs up on his best time over C&D
SHINE TIGER 56.00 kgs 1000m VSN time 58.59 - 3.00 kgs up on his best time over C&D (rode 58.59 twice)
MR ALFONSO 56.00 kgs 1000m VSN time 58.05 - 4.00 kgs DOWN on his best time over C&D

Dual Alliance if fit is my choice today. Stavinksy and Maji Moto to fight it out in the last.

All the best today guys.

great card, i like:

Tornado Twista
Panjo
Calypso girl
Lord Hawke
Solar energy
Beautiful dawn
King's joy
Maji Moto

Vaal sand
TORNADO TWISTER 6/1 7/10 w/p
(4places great value)
(i dont rate first timers on sand)
FUNNY GLORY (ARG) 7.14 0.64 w/p(3
places hollywood)
(dont rate panjo to be that short and
can get beaten)
BERRYFIELDS 16/10 place
(poor field and go only places)
ACES HIGH 3.57 0.5 w/p
(lord hawk no sure thing and no value
and darryl would have him in the red if
they thought he can win)
SOLAR ENERGY 5.56 0.94 w/p
(rate him to go very close)
BERMUDA BOWL 40/1 6/1 w/p
(can upset in a handicap for stragglers,
load up )
GIRO JET 2.5 0.43 w/p
(incl HUNTER VALLEY, KING`S
JOY ,SUGAR RAY, GANESH in jkp/p6)
MR ALFONSO 10/1 1.5 w/p (4 places
great great value ) best bet
Loaded up in pa and taking 10% , can
pay big
Place Accumulator Repeat bet
HORSE RACING > VAAL SAND
Leg 1 : Race 2 [2, 3, 5]
Leg 2 : Race 3 [1, 3, 8]
Leg 3 : Race 4 [1, 2, 3, 4]
Leg 4 : Race 5 [2, 3, 4, 5, 10]
Leg 5 : Race 6 [3, 6, 7, 10]
Leg 6 : Race 7 [1, 2, 4, 5, 11]
Leg 7 : Race 8 [6, 12, 18]
Type: Banker
Combinations: 10800
Times bet taken: 0.1
Stake: 1080
Enjoy for 2nd last time tomorrow
fairview is the last ....... Saturday will
start the next chapter , very exited to
get started and the amount of support
I got is phenomenal, thank you all ,
passion , dedication , perseverance and
discipline can take you a long way and
now I will reap the rewards of hard
work and very very long hours . Will still
post once a week something for free !
Hope today we can booooooom and
make money !!!!