Vaal Sand Thursday 22 Aug

'Mouth injury' not the same as 'choked up' :S

Thanks Frodo and Pulse (tu)

Yup, at the price definitely of interest and personally have changed allegiance and prepared to take a chance on him, that penultimate run was very good imo

Frodo Wrote:

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> Loopy,
>
> Please explain something to me if you don't mind -
> how come in some races you have horses with lower
> 'percentages' listed above those with higher
> 'percentages' :S

Hi Frodo,

They are 2 seperate rating indicators as explained on the "ratings explained" page. In a nutshell Super rules are based on probability to place statistic for which factors has the biggest influence to narrow down a selection to place... The higher the % the higher the probability to place on these currently 8 but once completed 10 Super Rules... If it qualified for 6 of the Super rules the % would be 60 (6/10)

hope this explains...and we analyze this basically to find the ratings and the Super Rules to be aligned for a more probable solid place bet.

Lord Hawke should be superior to Aces High and if reading between the lines Veldrifter is the main threat then my early play would be
Lord Hawke to win x
Tizasmartdollar
Aloha Bay
Beautiful Dawn ew
x Sugar Ray ew
xLuxardo ew and a nibble at Louis runner a place with Sampson riding.

Anyone have an opinion on Artful Prince??

Loopy Logic Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Loopy,
> >
> > Please explain something to me if you don't mind
> -
> > how come in some races you have horses with
> lower
> > 'percentages' listed above those with higher
> > 'percentages' :S
>
> Hi Frodo,
>
> They are 2 seperate rating indicators as explained
> on the "ratings explained" page. In a nutshell
> Super rules are based on probability to place
> statistic for which factors has the biggest
> influence to narrow down a selection to place...
> The higher the % the higher the probability to
> place on these currently 8 but once completed 10
> Super Rules... If it qualified for 6 of the Super
> rules the % would be 60 (6/10)
>
> hope this explains...and we analyze this basically
> to find the ratings and the Super Rules to be
> aligned for a more probable solid place bet.


Clear a mud :S

Let's just look at Race 8 today - you have:

8 12 MR ALFONSO Franklin Maleking 24 Lucky Houdalakis 18 37.5%
8 3 GABRONZA Gavin Lerena 23.5 Mike Azzie 5 50.0%
8 4 MAJI MOTO S'Manga Khumalo 21 Leon Erasmus 11 62.5%
8 6 STAVINSKY Hennie Greyling 19 Leon Erasmus 4 50.0%
8 2 PRINCESS ALBERTA Fanie Chambers 17 Corne Spies 17 37.5%
8 17 THE DISCIPLE _Reserve 15.5 Leon Erasmus 14 62.5%
8 13 ANGEL GABRIEL Robbie Fradd 15 St John Gray 15 62.5%
8 15 BLACK PEPPER Deon Sampson 14 Louis Goosen 6 25.0%
8 8 SHINE TIGER Piere Strydom 13.5 Dominic Zaki 12 37.5%
8 11 LORD DUBOIS Sherman Brown 13 Leon Erasmus 1 37.5%
8 9 MEN AND MOUNTAINS Donavan Yeo 12 Leon Erasmus 9 37.5%
8 16 MBOWENI Evert Pheiffer 11.5 Leon Erasmus 2 25.0%
8 10 AUTHENTICATED Collen Thabana 10 Lucky Houdalakis 13 50.0%
8 1 LUXARDO Wesley Marwing 6 Mark Dixon 8 37.5%

So Mr Alfonso is your top rating (24)? But it only has a 37.5% chance of placing, correct? So for the PA you would include those with the higher percentages (e.g. Maji Moto and Angel Gabriel - both have percentages of 62.5%), but for the P6 you would prefer Mr Alfonso and Gabronza in front of Maji Moto?

Shrek pa? Please mate,

monty Wrote:

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> Anyone have an opinion on Artful Prince??


Not as good as his siblings but may take to the surface.

(oscar Wrote:

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> Shrek pa? Please mate,


Just finalizing it will post it in about half an hour. (tu)

Tnx my buddy..big races coming to john soon see you guys at box

oscar Wrote:

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> Tnx my buddy..big races coming to john soon see
> you guys at box


Thanks mate, looking forward to it. (tu)

Thanks was looking at the runs to date not to bad horses