My take on today's PA races:
R2: Panjo stands out on his effortless last win - only slight concern is if he does not jump on terms (which he has done in the past) - lots of pace in the race, so he can't afford to get too much out of his ground. Dual Alliance is suited to this trip, but seems to be struggling with hos breathing - would prefer others until he shows that he is 100%. Baron Zemo disappointed last time, and maybe the handicapper now has his measure.Funny Glory likely pace setter and is not totally out of place contention. Interesting runner here is Enchanted Guest - has been running on the turf and as such gets his MR increase of 6 points even though he runs on the sand today :S. All in all Panjo looks hard to beat
R3: No form to work with, anything possible
R4: Both Lord Hawke and Aces High look to follow up on recent wins and both are more or less 'correctly' handicapped imo, so hard to split them. Where's My Chop always thereabouts, so no reason why he should not finish in the money again. Velddrifter disappointed badly last time when pulled out of the race, only reason I could find in the stipes report is that he suffered a 'mouth injury' - hard to know how much that affected him - would be a big runner on his pinultimate run over this trip. Sermon goes well for Striker, but has been badly off form and looks real skinny to me at odds of around 13/2.
R5: Very little form to work with - anything possible
R6: Olympic Spring the standout here, very short in the betting, but hard to find aything to challenge her; imo Elegant Bay has a very very tough task giving OS 4.5 kg's; Beautiful Dawn did run 3.5 lengths behind OS in July and is 3 kg's better off, but OS was really cruising that day and could have won by many more lengths imo; while the couplings still apply in the P6, it could be an idea to back up OS with the Moffat coupling just in case.
R7: Very competitive race, only made slightly easier now that Cockney Tiger is out; Giro Jet now the favorite, but not for me, form of pinultimate has not been franked and faded badly in his last start; Fradd has abandoned GJ in favor of King's Joy, but not much between them imo and on KJ's pinultimate effort behind Spectroscope, Blue Concorde looks home and hosed. Silver Specialist prefers the pace to be on, and he could get his way here as GJ likes to get on with things. Ganesh should enjoy the surface on breeding, but is another who is running of the increased turf rating, so does not look well in here imo. All in all I think Blue Concorde is the right one (and not bad value at around 7/2), with Silver Specialist (break a leg Elvis (tu)) not to be ignored
R8: Another very competitve sprint to close where the draw may have a huge say in the outcome; Mr Alfonso has the draw and some nice value imo at around 10/1 (keep an eye on what Tornado Twister does in the first); Shine Tiger should hold Maji Moto at the weights today, but both have obvious chances; some of the other fancied runners are drawn towards the inside, which has been a disadvantage in recent weeks.
Enjoy (tu)
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