Met 2013, Feb 2nd

@Bushy, don't forget about our lil friend Tarrys mount!!!!!
Pomodoro!and his win in the sprint just showed that he is top draw. He will gv Jackson a run for his money,at 8/1 worth a bet. And slumdog at 33/1!!!!!!!wow

Very open Met. Think Bravura not yet done

Bushy Wrote:

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> Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:
>

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>

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> > The Met is much more open than the betting
> > suggest,will be the best field in many years to
> > contest and anyone must be really desperate to
> > punt anything before the final field and draws.
> >
> > whoever backs Jackson at odds
> > 2/1(bettingworld)must be really really smoking
> the
> > wrong stuff......If VC take the Queens plate
> well
> > he will be very very hard to beat but the
> weight
> > of 60kg can find him out....but he will still
> beat
> > Jackson even if he run unplaced jackson will be
> > behind him....
>
> i disagree ziets...Jackson over the correct
> distance, on the long run-in...game over
> just put it this way, do you think Crawford was
> trying to win the last two runs behind VC? and if
> Karis had the opportunity to win the race, do you
> think he would have? to win a few grand beating
> VC, or making sure your horse does not get a
> single pound worse off in the weights so you can
> win the Met? The performance of Jackson was not a
> true reflection of ability...the Met has been the
> main target all along, and to be honest i cannot
> see VC seeing out the extra distance...VC will be
> running on empty, whilst J will have a rocket up
> its #@$ charging home down the straight

Bushy,i respect your view but Jackson and VC will have a 2kg (3 lenghs)penalty against most older horses in the race because each of them won 2X grade 1 races already. and They wanted to win both races with Jackson ,it wouldnt give him any penalty for the J&B but VC is unbeatable over 1600m and in a different league.....Now 2000m will be a very hard task for VC especially under that weight and because he is a frontrunner,while they will drop Jackson out again like both recent races and hope to run at them....tactically i also think that will be the best for Jackson with the weight he will carry against VC but that same tactic will not work if runners like Master Plan(1kg) , King of Pain (6KG), Rumya(she will get 7,5KG if Mike enter her),Whiteline fewer(2kg), and Tribal Dance(2kg) are in the race,they all handy horses and the distance and weight wont let them stop easily

Tribal Dance will win the Met if he can get a good ride from a handy position especially if the pace are fast like we all know it will be .....best weighted and best handicapped although its a WFA conditions race..... only horses that can beat him is Variety club on class , King of Pain (unexposed over the distance and nobody knows his true rating) ,Rumya (if she is entered she will beat King of Pain,she won a grade 1 again this weekend while in need of a run and I rate the 3yo fillies much better than the colts this year)

I said Tribal Dance will win the MET in July already and everything worked out very well up to now and the conditions favor him against all other 4yo+ runners

That is my view and in the big races i am seldom wrong.....i already started doing my homework....

I'm not sure about the conditions of running in a Met but I wish Glen would nominate Cash Register. That horse has a potential to win a race like this imo.

Bushy Wrote:

---

> Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > The Met is much more open than the betting
> > suggest,will be the best field in many years to
> > contest and anyone must be really desperate to
> > punt anything before the final field and draws.
> >
> > whoever backs Jackson at odds
> > 2/1(bettingworld)must be really really smoking
> the
> > wrong stuff......If VC take the Queens plate
> well
> > he will be very very hard to beat but the
> weight
> > of 60kg can find him out....but he will still
> beat
> > Jackson even if he run unplaced jackson will be
> > behind him....
>
> i disagree ziets...Jackson over the correct
> distance, on the long run-in...game over
> just put it this way, do you think Crawford was
> trying to win the last two runs behind VC? and if
> Karis had the opportunity to win the race, do you
> think he would have? to win a few grand beating
> VC, or making sure your horse does not get a
> single pound worse off in the weights so you can
> win the Met? The performance of Jackson was not a
> true reflection of ability...the Met has been the
> main target all along, and to be honest i cannot
> see VC seeing out the extra distance...VC will be
> running on empty, whilst J will have a rocket up
> its #@$ charging home down the straight


THE CONDITIONS FOR THE met weights have been explained on this site already...the comment above is not called for mr bushy regarfding jackson trying in his prep runs....

Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:

---

> Bushy Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:
> >
>

---

>
> >

---

> > > The Met is much more open than the betting
> > > suggest,will be the best field in many years
> to
> > > contest and anyone must be really desperate
> to
> > > punt anything before the final field and
> draws.
> > >
> > > whoever backs Jackson at odds
> > > 2/1(bettingworld)must be really really
> smoking
> > the
> > > wrong stuff......If VC take the Queens plate
> > well
> > > he will be very very hard to beat but the
> > weight
> > > of 60kg can find him out....but he will still
> > beat
> > > Jackson even if he run unplaced jackson will
> be
> > > behind him....
> >
> > i disagree ziets...Jackson over the correct
> > distance, on the long run-in...game over
> > just put it this way, do you think Crawford was
> > trying to win the last two runs behind VC? and
> if
> > Karis had the opportunity to win the race, do
> you
> > think he would have? to win a few grand beating
> > VC, or making sure your horse does not get a
> > single pound worse off in the weights so you
> can
> > win the Met? The performance of Jackson was not
> a
> > true reflection of ability...the Met has been
> the
> > main target all along, and to be honest i
> cannot
> > see VC seeing out the extra distance...VC will
> be
> > running on empty, whilst J will have a rocket
> up
> > its #@$ charging home down the straight
>
> Bushy,i respect your view but Jackson and VC will
> have a 2kg (3 lenghs)penalty against most older
> horses in the race because each of them won 2X
> grade 1 races already. and They wanted to win both
> races with Jackson ,it wouldnt give him any
> penalty for the J&B but VC is unbeatable over
> 1600m and in a different league.....Now 2000m will
> be a very hard task for VC especially under that
> weight and because he is a frontrunner,while they
> will drop Jackson out again like both recent races
> and hope to run at them....tactically i also think
> that will be the best for Jackson with the weight
> he will carry against VC but that same tactic will
> not work if runners like Master Plan(1kg) , King
> of Pain (6KG), Rumya(she will get 7,5KG if Mike
> enter her),Whiteline fewer(2kg), and Tribal
> Dance(2kg) are in the race,they all handy horses
> and the distance and weight wont let them stop
> easily
>
> Tribal Dance will win the Met if he can get a good
> ride from a handy position especially if the pace
> are fast like we all know it will be .....best
> weighted and best handicapped although its a WFA
> conditions race..... only horses that can beat
> him is Variety club on class , King of Pain
> (unexposed over the distance and nobody knows his
> true rating) ,Rumya (if she is entered she will
> beat King of Pain,she won a grade 1 again this
> weekend while in need of a run and I rate the 3yo
> fillies much better than the colts this year)
>
> I said Tribal Dance will win the MET in July
> already and everything worked out very well up to
> now and the conditions favor him against all other
> 4yo+ runners
>
> That is my view and in the big races i am seldom
> wrong.....i already started doing my homework....


: now im really confused :S

The debate between Zietsman and Bushy, that's why we love horse racing, the different opinions. On the head to head clash Variety Club vs Jackson, why VC may win it - if he draws barrier 10 or less and Marcus controls the pace, he'll win hands down. Marcus is an absolute master at controlling the pace of a race, and just when he looks done for all money, he manages to extract that little bit extra - think back to his ride on Jaypeg. Guys are talking about VC carrying 60.0kgs, which the great Pocket Power could not carry to victory in the Met. I think it's fair to say when Pocket Power carried 60.0kgs in the Met, he was in the twilight of his career and not even Mike Bass could tell us which PP would turn up, whereas VC is an improving 4 year old. The only way to make VC feel that weight is to set a cracking gallop, then his stamina will be tested in the closing stages of the race. That said, it stands to reason Crawford should try and qualify a sacrificial hare. MDK is very good at doing this, just to ensure a true run race and hopefully the desired result at the end of the day. Why Jackson may win it, his prep thus far has gone extremely well, the Met has always been his long term goal, and he has no stamina doubts. I maintain the pace is very crucial for Jackson to win. He appears to be a horse who takes some time to find top gear, whereas if he is towed through at pace entering the straight, he will fetch any horse in SA.

Pomodoro has got to be the biggest danger to both Jackson and VC, in his favour he has run twice and won twice on a left handed track, so he can't be discounted. The fact that Tarry chose to give the Summer Cup a miss, speaks volumes as to how he fancies Pomodoro's chances in the Met. He jumped from the worst draw and raced fairly handy to win the July, and all the fundis said he was so badly out at the weights with Jackson in that race. If he receives weight from Jackson this time round, should he not finish ahead of him again?

The more i try and analyse the race, the more confused i get:S.

....am I still smoking my socks thinking 40/1 about Master Plan is a good price????

I think he is a runner, and a place probably the right way to go.

Seeing as we throwing horses in the ring:

Add like to add

RUN FOR IT

2011 J&B Met, 3rd (2 Lengths Behind Past Master)
2012 J&B Met, 4th (1.35 Lengths Behind Igugu)

Its Running this weekend and will most likely win( Grade. II)

That Should Set it up 3rd Run after Rest for the Met.
Seeing as it Hasn't won a Grade. I, it should only carry 58kg?

Its Currently 25/1 (Been Claimed)

This Met has a very open look about it and it will be interesting to see if King Of Pain accepts. I think 7/1 covering the first 4 in the Ante Post betting is very short considering you are not guaranteed a run.

We should not forget the effect the draw has on the horses chances. In the derby last year Jackson had the draw. If he gets drawn inside, he will not be that far back as in the Derby. An inside draw and the long straight would make him hard to beat.

just remember this is not the july,its the met and the race is set up for the best horse to win.imo the best horse is jackson.i wouldnt be looking for spooks because it will be tough for anything to beat jackson on the conditions of the met.