Cape Guineas - What A winter

2/1 Looks a very attractive price if you ask me!!!

whats your thoughts ?

ps Gold Circle usually bombard the websites with press releases for all the grade 1 nothing or nothing much for this one?


1 WHAT A WINTER 109 3 c A 58.0 9 Mike Bass Karl Neisius
2 COPPER PARADE 104 3 g A B 58.0 5 Joey Ramsden Karis Teetan
3 KAVANAGH 104 3 c A 58.0 2 Mike de Kock Johnny Geroudis
4 SOLO TRAVELLER 104 3 c A 58.0 3 Justin Snaith Bernard Fayd'Herbe
5 PERANA (AUS) 102 3 c A 58.0 12 Mike de Kock Kevin Shea
6 CASTLETHORPE (AUS) 101 3 c A 58.0 4 Mike Bass Anton Marcus
7 TOP SELLER 101 3 c A 58.0 11 Vaughan Marshall M J Byleveld
8 IL SAGGIATORE (AUS) 98 3 g A 58.0 7 Joey Ramsden Glen Hatt
9 BRILLIANT CUT 97 3 g A 58.0 15 Vaughan Marshall Aldo Domeye
10 M'LORDS THROAT 96 3 c A 58.0 14 Glen Kotzen Mark Neisius
11 RUN FOR IT 95 3 c A 58.0 1 Justin Snaith Felix Coetzee
12 KING FAHIEM 93 3 g A 58.0 10 Glen Kotzen Marco Latorre
13 LUCKY MOOn 93 3 g A 58.0 13 Joey Ramsden Cedric Segeon
14 WOLF ON THE FOLD 93 3 c A 58.0 8 Brett Crawford Richard Fourie
15 GREEN KEEPER 92 3 c A 58.0 6 Justin Snaith Andrew Fortune

I make him the horse to beat. I respect Perana, but I would not be at all surprised if What A Winter's sternest opposition comes from Solo Traveller. They've met twice, once when the weights heavily favoured the one and once when they favoured the other. This time it's level weights and the form suggests there may be very little between them, although What A Winter has been so impressive visually when he has won races that you get the feeling there's a lot more to come. However, I remain to be convinced that he is as far ahead of the rest of the Guineas field as the merit ratings say he is.

Magic i had what a winter that far ahead that i was making Castlethorpe the danger,don`t like Perana and Kavanagh would give him a run over 200 shorter..Better look again huh?

Il Saggiatore has done nothing wrong, big runner imo...

Hib, you may well be right. In fact, I hope you are and he bolts in - we can always use another champion! I agree with you, though, that 1400m is probably Kavanagh's optimum trip.

I have at least 3 horses ahead of Castlethorpe on exposed form,but it is Cape Town!

rob faux Wrote:

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> I have at least 3 horses ahead of Castlethorpe on
> exposed form,but it is Cape Town!

Hopefully the south-easter won't be blowing a gale. Other than that we should get a true-run race and the "right" result - whatever it may be. I also see others as being more plausible threats than Castlethorpe, although I know he is highly thought of (and may be looking for the Derby distance rather than the mile).

Il Saggiatore is an unknown quantity, I agree. He has a terrific turn of foot, he has the pedigree to be a Gr 1 horse, and as one of mentors said many moons ago, the hardest horse in racing to assess is the horse that has never been beaten. Until they lose, you don't really know what it takes to beat them.

It should be a great race, as it usually is.

Rob im not very good at exposing form ()

What a Winter is the horse to beat. 2/1 is a fair price but not a generous price. There are middle pins in the race which will ensure that he doesn't shorten too much.

magiclips Wrote:

---

> I make him the horse to beat. I respect Perana,
> but I would not be at all surprised if What A
> Winter's sternest opposition comes from Solo
> Traveller. They've met twice, once when the
> weights heavily favoured the one and once when
> they favoured the other. This time it's level
> weights and the form suggests there may be very
> little between them, although What A Winter has
> been so impressive visually when he has won races
> that you get the feeling there's a lot more to
> come. However, I remain to be convinced that he
> is as far ahead of the rest of the Guineas field
> as the merit ratings say he is.

Go to agree - on their last run, it makes no sense that WaW is rated 8 points better than Top Seller - and there is no real comparison between de Kock's pair and WaW - I THINK he is the horse to beat, but will not be gobsmacked should he get beat.

Like a few others, I am also skeptical about What a Winter's credentials to win the Guineas, so I will be looking to beat the favourite this year. My reasons are that I don't believe he will last a true run race and Mike Bass has never won this race. I found Noordhoek Flyer last year due to the fact that I knew they rated the horse and that he had been specifically prepared for the race(Just running on from way back in races just before the big one ala Bold Silvano who I backed for the very same reason). I believe that the Snaith and Ramsden stables have taken this approach this year and have the ammunition to do so if WaW fluffs his lines. The de Kock runners have to travel and with the riding arrangements I would assume that Perana is prefered but has a bad draw and I don't believe that Kavanagh stays the 1600m.

Ramsden has 3 runners of who I believe Il Sag and Copper Parade are the runners. They could use lucky Moon to make the pace decent as he has won from the front before. Il Sag has not really been exposed at this level but is unbeaten just like Bravura last year before the Derby. Copper Parade has beaten Kavanagh and has his 3rd run after rest and gelding plus has blinkers back on.

Similarly, Snaith has 3 runners and they could use Green Keeper to set a decent pace. The other 2 have perfect draws, top jocks and are perfectly suited to the course, although could be better suited to a bit further. Like Magiclips I am leaning towards Solo Traveller to give Bernard a Guineas double.

Frodo Wrote:

> Go to agree - on their last run, it makes no sense
> that WaW is rated 8 points better than Top Seller

Of course it does. WAW earned his rating in the Sophomore (1200m) by beating Darcy Arcy (89) [by 2kg and 6 Lengths], and Knock Em Out (85) by [4.5Kgs and 8 lengths].
Top Seller earned his rating by splitting Solo Traveller (98) and WAW (109).

The only problem is WAW hasn't run anything like 109 other than that 1200m.

What is really interesting is how Perana is rated so low