July - Now for the weights

You have to admit that this July is beginning to generate steam...

For a start, it's a shock to see a such a short priced and heavily backed favourite throw in the towel so early.

The next shock was to see my bet on Bold Silvano just shrivel when the handicapper LUMPED on a brutal penalty for the Daily News.

Look what's happened to him:
He met ASLAN(104) in the 1900 and won by 0.15...which made BOLD SILVANO about the 104 he was rated going into the race.
His new rating was 107, and I guess he couldn't complain.
But the cleverly campaigned ASLAN is now 1.5Kg better for 0.15 lengths.

Now BOLD SILVANO picked up a 5 point penalty to 112 ! ASLAN for one, is now 4Kg's better off to BOLD SILVANO.

To get BOLD SILVANO a 112, 2 time winner CLUB VICTOR(94) who ran 5th in the Daily News will probably pick up a 10lb penalty to about 104...same as Summer Cup winner ASLAN.

The strategy for ASLAN is looking very, very good.

Poor CLUB VICTOR, a victim of the Handicapper handicapping for one future race.

Thanks Jack, how do you rate Pocket Powers chances?

Jack- do you think Mother Russia is a well treated horse atm ?

Jack,

Your statement about Club Victor is unfair.The handicappers job is to handicap.You should rather be pointing a finger at the trainer.Statements like you only get to race in this race once as a 3 year old are common place,but the reality is that it is the trainers job to best place his/her horses to get the most out of their career.Club Victor was never going to have the firepower to win or place in the Daily News,therefore if he does get the 10 points that you suggest the fault should lie purely at the trainers door for the poor placement of the horse.

Before the Daily News the word "superstar" was on everybody's lips for Noordhoek Flyer. This horse Irish Flame is a revelation since joining De Kock. It is improving with every start, winning the Derby by a street, then winning the Daily News over a track and trip that doesn't suit. Yet nobody has used the word superstar, champion, freak. When he won the Derby the consensus was the conditions caused a result that was not a true reflection. When in history has a horse that has won the derby by 10 lengths be allowed to start 9/2 on its next start against 3 year olds ? Still after it's Daily News win, there is not nearly as much buzz about this horse than there was Noordhoek Flyer - and he has done far, far more.
A week ago the pundits were saying "race over" Noordhoek Flyer for the July (even with stamina doubts) now the same people are saying "its a handicap - Irish Flame has his work cut out".

Correct JAP, but before pointing fingers at the trainer you might want to find out if it was his decision to run CV, or perhaps the owner's decision.

That's true Darryl,but irrespective of who's decision it was to have the horse in the Daily News the blame can most ceratinly not be placed at the handicappers door.The trainers sphere of influence includes informing(and persuading if need be) his owner as to how to get the best out of horses career,be that horse a 52MR or a Pocket Power.More easily said than done sometimes,but their job nonetheless.

after everything is said and done, surely the three olds should be "well in" because the race is at the end of july...does anybody know what the cut off date is for incurring penalties...

scotia Wrote:

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> Thanks Jack, how do you rate Pocket Powers
> chances?

The facts of the matter is that while PP won 7 Mets and QP's, he only managed to dead/heat once and with a filly in this hcp. What it shows is how PP does not have the house advantage that a champion has in a championship race. As great as PP is, the hcpper has a major influence on the outcome of this race.

PP always has a chance though, but Bass controls the weights of the whole race if he still is deciding whether PP will run or not. If PP declines, the whole race will change it's nature and a whole lot of runners move out from "under suffrance".

thanks again Jack

So Aslan is a good thing than

hibernia Wrote:

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> Jack- do you think Mother Russia is a well treated
> horse atm ?

The mother is extremely well treated. In every race she runs she's one of the most dangerous contenders. Her record is frighteningly good and bulging with merit.

The handicappers rated her 112 in the Met, quite rightly I thought.

However, Fort Vogue objected his Met rating (which would have franked fabiani, river jetez, BCL, PP and mother russia) and it seems that when the hcppers were unable to figure out who their line horse was that Fort Vogue won his objection without the actual merits ever being discussed.

My view is that they couldn't believe Fabiani's rating in the Queens plate, so waited to see him again in the Met. When he proved it, they had no leg to stand on because they hadn't published what they saw previously and then couldn't use him as a line horse. It left them high and dry. Hehe.

It's a bit like being completely innocent in a big car pile up, and when they discover you have no licence it's all automatically your fault and it ends right there...what actually happened of no further interest, ie a technicality. You have to love it!