Strange tote movements

Greg,

thats what I mean....Value to be had either way. You will also find that in a competative 18 horse field in PE, where they are betting 4/1 the field, you will find a 5/1 (on the tote) shot pay in the region of R15 to R20a win!!!

i do think this comingled pools with bring with it loads of issues, but I also think we can take advantage of it.

Tommy my point is that the majority of punters in SA play the tote, if the odds are so shit they will go somewhere else to spend there money...its not good for the punter in this country.

There are 2 aspects to this issue that I dont understand:
The affect of co-mingling,no matter the value of the currency,should not change the dividends IF they are spread in the same proportions as locally....therefore the big differences in dividends means the weight of money,from outside SA,is on different horses to local favourites.These invariably reduce the dividend on the winning bets !!!!
Does that suggest that their knowledge of our racing is smarter than local punters?
In many instances it has reduced tote dividends to way below bookmakers prices(including SP's)
BUT
Betfair is the most co-mingled racing market/s in the world, from most varied countries and currencies,albeit converted to British pounds(or Aus dollars for Aus racing) and yet trade at prices that our bookmakers cannot match.
Is my logic faulty? Am I missing something?

Greg,

I don't disagree. If you look at it from a TOTE specific angle then it may not be quite as beneficial. But as Rob mentioned above....If money goes in a certain direction with a "pooled bet" then there will be greater advantages in other directions.

We all assume that the Aussies/Americans whomever they are ONLY back the winners. We have spent time highlighting the negative side of the comingling (which I agree with 100%) but what about the flip side. This is what I'm trying to get at.

Having said tat I guess favourites win (supposedly) 30% of the races....That is a big chunk and with that I agree that our punters may feel agrieved.

We have in fact gone back to playing into "blind" totes, not good.

Betfair co-mingled?

Rob Betfair is an exchange and all it does is "match" punters with opposing views and takes commision for the service.
No risk, must have been the greatest invention of all time, wish I had thought of it first

lol

Dave,that is true,which is why it represents the purest market prices.
The point I was hoping to show is that if co-mingled pools are CONSISTENTLY reducing the payout of WINNING horses,somebody from outside has to be lumping on those horses disproportionately.
I got the impression that's the case from the postings.If it is only occasional and often works the opposite way,then that would be understandable.

I have been watching the tote closely this morning and I have come to the following conclusions:

1) I don't believe there is any "wrongdoing" technically from the side of Phumelela.
2) I DON'T like the fact that the pools only get comingled either 30 seconds before the off, right at the off or 30 seconds after the off. The reason being that the tote is going to chance so drastically due to the volume of money. In race 6 the WIN pool went from about R13,000 to R50,000 just on the off. (The comingling taking effect). This is going to have a huge effect on what the final payouts are. Some people use the tote (and to good effect) as a barometer of who is fancied and who is not. NOW you can throw that out the window. It becomes like holding a lottery ticket. You have the winner but you have NO idea what its going to pay.


I suggest that Phumelela look at a better way of adding these pools in or at least a better way of informing us what is being comingled? (amounts ect.)

As I mentioned before there is good and bad here. I think there is now great value to be had in certain areas, but the changes are so dramatic that you can no longer use the tote as an indicator board. It has now become solely a payout window!!!

I was horrified at the payouts for race 4

At "0 minutes to start", the place on N0. 4 was at R1.70 and the win at R3.40 and I was rubbing my hands in delight.

At "race closed", the place came down to 0.50


1ST 4 No More Screws 2.20 1.00
2ND 2 Capitol Steps 2.90
3RD 1 Zanzabee (Aus) 3.00

Thats what I mean Fastden,

You cannot take what the tote shows right before the off as "gospel". They are not doing anything funny, but they increase the win/place/sinwger pools by 300%!!!

Sometimes you will benefit, sometimes you will not.

Perhaps the guys who backed Capital Steps for a place must have thought Christmas has come early!!!

as an exercise what are the win/place divs shown on the comingled partners tote board(eg Australia with a min to our off) Anybody from down under etc that can help?

Thats a great question, but I assume with them partnering up with PGE, they take the feed from Tellytrack so will only see the SAf payouts.

Its like racing from Singapore or Hong Kong.....If you don't know that you are supposed to divide the dividends by 10 (in Singapore and HK) you will think you are being royally screwed by the divs declared here.

Somehow I don't think there is much of an answer out there for us.

the answer is simple ,australia and vietnam are betting into some of our races however the bets are entering the tote pools after the race is closed..today i watched 2 races very closely and both win and place pools went up between 60 to 70 percent..race 6 and 7 were the 2 races that i watched