Owning a race horse....

  • Andrewest
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Owning a race horse....

15 years 8 months ago
#72490
Last year 2008, we had 5715 horses in training..
We ran 3806 races…

If 10% (571) of the horses in training (5715) won 5 races on average, then most of the remaining horses must all be maidens still..

Assuming that at least 10% of new horses get to at least a C division.

By 5 races I imply that the horses have won :

1. Maiden plate
2. Novice
3. Graduation
4. D Division
5. C Division

So 571 horses x 5 races = 2855 races won by these 571 horses.

3806 races – 2885 races = 951 races.

That implies that the remaining 90% (5144) of the 5715 horses, have won only 951 races during the year.
18% of these horses (5144) other than the top 10% (571) have won a race last year.

We race for stake money….

Should there not be about 18,000 races if we have 5,715 horses that race for stake money..

Or do the guys buy horses for the LOVE OF THE GAME…

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  • Jack Dash
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Re: Re: Owning a race horse....

15 years 8 months ago
#72496
Nah, you're assuming incorrectly all 5715 start the year as 0 time winners.

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  • Andrewest
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Re: Re: Owning a race horse....

15 years 8 months ago
#72499
change the word maindens to non winners..
I assume that the new 2 y olds and 3 y olds unraced makes up the top 10%..571
for earning purposes, even if a horse comes into the year as a 4 y old with 6 wins, and dont win any race the year..the horse is a maiden/non winner for the year..

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  • Don
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Re: Re: Owning a race horse....

15 years 8 months ago
#72577
i think your assumption of 10% winning 5 races is too ambitious....should be more like 1% wins 5 races for the year or 10% win 1 or 2 races....rather work out how many out of the 3806 winners (60% of h-in-t), the fall-off rate that go on to a 2nd and 3rd time winner...it will be huge fall-off...and the same fall-off rate for 2nd and 3rd placed for instance...besides, what is the minimum amount of h-in-t needed to keep the 3806 races filled with a minimum of runners - taking into account all factors such as fall-out rate, layoffs, not eligible etc?

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