The storm before the calm..by Leon Setaro
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The storm before the calm..by Leon Setaro
15 years 11 months ago
The storm before the calm
Only two weeks of Champion's season remain here in KZN before the
cavalry roll on once again in relentless pursuit of graded stakes and
black type. This weekend we have the Mercury Sprint at Clairwood on
Sunday, then onto Champion's Cup the following Saturday and for the
finale - Gold Cup day on the 1st August with almost R2mil in stakes
money to bring season to a close in fine style. This day also ushers in
the 2009/2010 season, resets the stats and is the official birthday for
all racehorses.
The action is also on tonight at Greyville; bread crusts and rice water
fare for racing enthusiasts but if the recent stats are anything to go
by then you should be able to tank up just by blindly backing
favourites! Over the last 3x KZN meetings, favourites have punished the
bookies by winning 13 of the 25 races (52%) and for exacta players, take
note - favourites have found a top 2 finish in 17 of the last 25 races
(72%) producing an average dividend of R20,90. If you had taken an
exacta in every race in this period, roving the favourite as a banker
with the field, you would've collected a small profit and with no
formbook required!
Moving on to Sunday and in the Mercury Sprint headliner there's some
interesting prices available, in particular Shark's Bay at 7/1! He's
widely considered to be the horse to beat by those in the know so
generous odds all things considered. If this is your fancy, stake your
claim now there's no way that price will last!
Our Giant winning his only career start over 1200m
last year in January (image : Gold Circle)
Our Giant is another at decent odds, 6/1 currently available and he's
unbeaten over 1200m! Ok so he's only ever been over the distance once
but that's no fault of his and it's great to see him finally being given
a shot at a sprint feature. In my opinion, he's a sprinter/miler and
anything beyond that sees his star rapidly decline. He comes into this
race straight from contesting the July over 2200m where he put in a
surprisingly good effort, obviously helped by the lack of race pace
which resulted in a sprint for home. He should strip super fit for this
race, he's got the speed to get in early and he will be plugging away
right through to the line and beyond.
Although 6/1 looks to be decent value, these odds are expected to
improve as punters tend to shy away from horses stepping down in trip
for a return to sprinting. Having said that, it has proved lucrative at
feature race level on at least two occasions this season so the
precedent is there. Think Earl of Surrey and Shark's Bay, both roared
off with graded wins in their last starts when reverting back to 1200m.
No guarantee that the price will improve but I'm going to chance it and
play the waiting game looking for a 10/1 stretch on Interbet
Out of the spotlight and right at the bottom of the betting boards is
Fort Beluga who is perhaps also worth specific mention. He re-appeared
on the scene last month after a year's break and like Our Giant, has the
pace to win sprints but usually gets sent out over further. Touted as a
future champion early on in his career, he's been grounded by problems
and has never had the chance to peak on the racetrack and sustain those
earlier flashes of brilliance. This is now his 2nd comeback attempt at a
racing career and he's had two runs so far this season. Last time out he
put in no kind of effort, but 3 weeks before that when returning from
the break he did get to within 3 lengths of Smart Banker over 1600m
which is enough to warrant the possibility that he may still have
something to offer. The stable can do no wrong at the moment and Fort
Beluga at 33/1 is a roughie to be respected.
Overall, this year's Mercury is an evenly matched field if ever there
was one. With no JJ the Jetplane to cramp the odds, you're likely to get
value on your fancy no matter who you go with. As for the rest of the
card, I notice Autumn Frost is back again to give me another opportunity
to 'choke on words' when tipping him. I've heard this horse being called
'a thief' before, something I have very quickly come to appreciate as
I've done my boots on him almost one time too many now. This is the last
chance the bookies will have to fleece me on this one!
All the best for the week-end and happy punting
Only two weeks of Champion's season remain here in KZN before the
cavalry roll on once again in relentless pursuit of graded stakes and
black type. This weekend we have the Mercury Sprint at Clairwood on
Sunday, then onto Champion's Cup the following Saturday and for the
finale - Gold Cup day on the 1st August with almost R2mil in stakes
money to bring season to a close in fine style. This day also ushers in
the 2009/2010 season, resets the stats and is the official birthday for
all racehorses.
The action is also on tonight at Greyville; bread crusts and rice water
fare for racing enthusiasts but if the recent stats are anything to go
by then you should be able to tank up just by blindly backing
favourites! Over the last 3x KZN meetings, favourites have punished the
bookies by winning 13 of the 25 races (52%) and for exacta players, take
note - favourites have found a top 2 finish in 17 of the last 25 races
(72%) producing an average dividend of R20,90. If you had taken an
exacta in every race in this period, roving the favourite as a banker
with the field, you would've collected a small profit and with no
formbook required!
Moving on to Sunday and in the Mercury Sprint headliner there's some
interesting prices available, in particular Shark's Bay at 7/1! He's
widely considered to be the horse to beat by those in the know so
generous odds all things considered. If this is your fancy, stake your
claim now there's no way that price will last!
Our Giant winning his only career start over 1200m
last year in January (image : Gold Circle)
Our Giant is another at decent odds, 6/1 currently available and he's
unbeaten over 1200m! Ok so he's only ever been over the distance once
but that's no fault of his and it's great to see him finally being given
a shot at a sprint feature. In my opinion, he's a sprinter/miler and
anything beyond that sees his star rapidly decline. He comes into this
race straight from contesting the July over 2200m where he put in a
surprisingly good effort, obviously helped by the lack of race pace
which resulted in a sprint for home. He should strip super fit for this
race, he's got the speed to get in early and he will be plugging away
right through to the line and beyond.
Although 6/1 looks to be decent value, these odds are expected to
improve as punters tend to shy away from horses stepping down in trip
for a return to sprinting. Having said that, it has proved lucrative at
feature race level on at least two occasions this season so the
precedent is there. Think Earl of Surrey and Shark's Bay, both roared
off with graded wins in their last starts when reverting back to 1200m.
No guarantee that the price will improve but I'm going to chance it and
play the waiting game looking for a 10/1 stretch on Interbet
Out of the spotlight and right at the bottom of the betting boards is
Fort Beluga who is perhaps also worth specific mention. He re-appeared
on the scene last month after a year's break and like Our Giant, has the
pace to win sprints but usually gets sent out over further. Touted as a
future champion early on in his career, he's been grounded by problems
and has never had the chance to peak on the racetrack and sustain those
earlier flashes of brilliance. This is now his 2nd comeback attempt at a
racing career and he's had two runs so far this season. Last time out he
put in no kind of effort, but 3 weeks before that when returning from
the break he did get to within 3 lengths of Smart Banker over 1600m
which is enough to warrant the possibility that he may still have
something to offer. The stable can do no wrong at the moment and Fort
Beluga at 33/1 is a roughie to be respected.
Overall, this year's Mercury is an evenly matched field if ever there
was one. With no JJ the Jetplane to cramp the odds, you're likely to get
value on your fancy no matter who you go with. As for the rest of the
card, I notice Autumn Frost is back again to give me another opportunity
to 'choke on words' when tipping him. I've heard this horse being called
'a thief' before, something I have very quickly come to appreciate as
I've done my boots on him almost one time too many now. This is the last
chance the bookies will have to fleece me on this one!
All the best for the week-end and happy punting
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