Insanity Rules In The Kenilworth 8th.

I am continually amazed at the prices that horses start at in certain races. Bush Pirate must surely rank as the latest in a long list where insanity rather than logic has prompted punters to lump on with disastrous results - proving yet again why a handful of bookmakers can survive against legions of punters.

Before we look for excuses let's start off by reviewing the simple arithmetic of the race - No less than 9 opponents lined up against the favourite. So the starting point for calculating the likelihood of the favourite winning was to accept that his arithmetic winning chance was 11%. FACT.

Cold blooded evaluation of his form would certainly have improved that likelihood markedly but with the provisos that certain fundamental racing laws still needed to be respected : Only 35% of favourites win allied to the REALITY that this particular animal traditionally likes the second box.

Given the above I question as to who could possibly have been stupid enough to contribute towards propelling the price in to 1/5! You will get better than that on this week's rugby matches where there are only three 'runners' - Win, Lose or Draw. So why take on 9 (!) opponents at those or similarly cramped odds.

By comparison the winner of the last race - whose form suggested he was a real improver - was still available at close to evens ( for those who cared to ask ) when they jumped.

The only punters who have my sympathy are those who bankered him in the PA - they can truly feel aggrieved as it was certainly difficult to imagine him missing the places.

But come on guys - get over these odds on shots. They will inevitably put you in the poor house no matter how tempting they may look.

You should have posted this before the race, Garrick.

I agree with tipster.Garrick is seeking attention.If he posted yesterday morning,different story.I also had yesterdays lotto numbers but will post it later,oh sorry garrick the lotto draw is over.

Doubles and trebles made the betting short on the fav.
Most bookmakers have discovered that, when they took the betting boards off at their outlets, punters take very few doubles and trebles.
Hence most bookmakers, have the betting boards displayed.
Punters seem to punt doubles, trebles etc with the tips they get, including a short priced fav.

same will apply saturday turfontein - warm white nights and private jet, both will shorten, as most treble punters will include these horses...not that either one will win..

Whoever bought Le Drakkar must be wishing they hadn't after Bush Pirates dismal run. In fact most of Le Drakkar's form has worked out poorly.