1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

bayern wrote:

Immediate Edge (108), see the bookies have him at 7/1. Off his current rating and he makes the final field, surely he'll be under sufferance big time with 8 on 18 (129), considering the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 53.0.

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote:

Immediate Edge (108), see the bookies have him at 7/1. Off his current rating and he makes the final field, surely he'll be under sufferance big time with 8 on 18 (129), considering the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 53.0.

Yip - but 8 on 18 will only carry 57 kgs - to be honest on my ratings IE is a 111, but still under sufferance ...

If we go on the premise that all the horses in the final field will be bumped up 1.0kg, and 8 on 18 carries 58.0kg, most horses will be worse off in relation to 8 on 18, especially the 3 year olds.

mr hawaii wrote:

I think Legend was always going to run....he won a gr 1 and placed in another...Tarry has never been a gin strike trainer but this horse has steels last 2....that's a clear signal to selectors and public that the horse is just having a run....also avoided daily news.....on his run in the derby no way can immediate edge get into the July before Legend....both will run surely...My Best Shot?...has been 111 last 5 starts so the official handicapper does not think he's July class and for me needed to win out of province ....

All the 3 year olds will be under sufferance whether 8 on 18 carries 57.0 or 58.0kgs
 

Dazza wrote:

We are all assuming 8 on 18 runs. What if he doesn't? 

Whether you add 1.0kg to all the horses, or the wfa is already deducted, 8 on 18 should be the best weighted horse in the race. Compare 8 on 18 to any horse in the field, and according to Charl's ratings and weights, he is the best in. They'll be silly not to run him