Daily News 2000 nominations - Terrible field

Ask the question again in relation to last year's HWBets Durban July.

last year going into the race :-

See It Again - 4 year old - MR 131 - 60.0kg
Oriental Charm - 3 year old - MR 121 - 53.0kg

My understanding 131 - 121 = 10/2 = 5kg, therefore 60.0kg - 5.0 = 55.0kg, LESS 2.0kg wfa allowance = 53.0kg.

Does this wfa allowance still apply, if so, 8 on 18 would carry 55.0kg - is this correct, or has the wfa allowance for 3 year olds fallen away?

   
 

Thanks Bob, whilst the race conditions don't speak to allowances, going to assume because it is a Handicap race the wfa does come into play for three year olds i.e. colts get 2.0kg and the fillies get 2.5kg over the distance, with the maximum being 57.0kg and the minimum being 52.0kg.

Great thread thus far...

Bayern, See It Again's MR dropped to 127, hence the 60kg and 57kg scenario. With WFA and July race conditions, 8 on18 has a 1kg advantage as he was supposed to shoulder 58kgs.

Looks like Sail The Seas has been withdrawn from the DN2000

bayern wrote:

Thanks Bob, whilst the race conditions don't speak to allowances, going to assume because it is a Handicap race the wfa does come into play for three year olds i.e. colts get 2.0kg and the fillies get 2.5kg over the distance, with the maximum being 57.0kg and the minimum being 52.0kg.


Handicap with minimum and maximum weights. The WFA of 2kg applies to 3yo’s, but no additional allowance for F&M.
 

Hi Does anyone know why Sail the Seas is withdrawn from the Daily News?

It's already rated 127, running (and not winning) could only see it drop bit?

Not sure there reasoning. Unless they think it could win and be rated higher? Surprised really. Hopefully some knows why?

Just my opinion, maybe Sail The Seas is not being aimed at the July. Maybe he is being aimed at the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge Gr. 1 over 1600m (7 May). Could be wrong, Sail The Seas has not won beyond 1600m, if that is correct, the rating is achieved over 1600m. Qualification here, a few have gone into the July and won, not winning beyond 1600m. Assuming he does run in the HWB Gold Challenge, at wfa conditions he would come into the race well weighted.

The other thing, since Sail The Seas has been scratched from the DN2000, he has eased in the July betting from 10/1 to 12/1, conversely 8 on 18 has come in a touch, 4/1 into 7/2. Bookies are in the know and very seldom get it wrong.

 But this is all speculation, please don't take this post as gospel.

 

BE very wary of taking ante post 8 on 18 , and sail the seas.
hearing both wont run the july.
If not, Richard confirmed on legend of Arthur.
But you never know till its seen, therefore i say be wary

RacingG wrote:

BE very wary of taking ante post 8 on 18 , and sail the seas.
hearing both wont run the july.
If not, Richard confirmed on legend of Arthur.
But you never know till its seen, therefore i say be wary

Thanks for this. Never saw this coming. As none of the other Snaith horses besides these two look like they stand a chance in the main race. Cant see Pacaya, Regulation, Native Ruler, Okavangu, etc even running in the top 4. So if they are out, then its back to the drawing boards to find a fancy. By the way, I can't see Dave the King who came back very impressively being beaten in the 1600m and 1800m grade 1's to come. So if they are going to miss the big race, they will have to take on a real miler that is like a freight train over those distances. 
 

My opinion only .... Snaith has been saying that the main aim for 8 on 18 is the DN - and that they will decide after that whether he would run in the July - if he is not trying to pull the wool over the public's eyes, then one has to take what he says at face value; so 8 on 18 MAY run in the July, or he MAY NOT.

Sail the Seas - would be nice if someone in the know actually confirms the plans - I WOULD THINK that he might have suffered some sort of inconvience - but on the other hand the Snaiths might be a bit wary that StS may beat 8 on 18 again in the DN ?

And still no word about last year's winner ? And what about Montien - probably a July run is being ruled out (he would be top weight as it stands) - looks like he will be going for the Gold Challenge and even though he ran 8 on 18 close in the MET, none of his siblings have shown staying ability

I think (hope) many runners may yet pull out of the July ....