Dave Scott has asked for my opinion on the Rugby World Cup so here it is together with my overall view on punting:
I effectively ‘retired’ from punting & ownership after the 2015 Rugby World Cup although it took me until 2019 to get out altogether. Instead of continuing with punting & buying horses which, by and large, were simply money pits I bought myself a Porsche with the proceeds from my win on NZ in 2015 and called it a day. For a refreshing change I was left with something that actually did what it claimed on the tin! This decision had two outcomes:
1.) I went back to being a sports fan. So instead of having to ‘settle’ on a Monday morning after an unsuccessful punt I simply went to bed grumpy and moved on the following day to the next event.
2.) I suddenly had a remarkable amount of money to spend on other things. Nowadays I measure full ownership of just one horse against the reality that I could take my girl out to a modest dinner almost every second day each month rather than feed a habit (yes, it’s a habit!) that had for a long time delivered more aggravation than pleasure.
Furthermore – since the early 2000’s I had already effectively migrated to betting mainly on UK racing which, as a lifelong fan of horses that stay further than 1600 metres, I found far more satisfying, exciting and pleasureable to bet on. The monotony of South Africa’s ‘same old’ race courses & soup meat horses became too much to warrant me spending my money on the activity locally.
Yet I occasionally still get the ‘itch’ (addiction?) and have a whirl. Unfortunately the process is quite frustrating as the powers that be seem to have a policy whereby they would rather lovingly show me a picture of a horse meandering down to the start at a local racecourse than the race I have just had a bet on in the UK. They seem to imagine that a quarter screen (if you are lucky) with a ‘smoke blower’ waffling on about local dividends rather than the commentary is great viewing and is beyond me.
So why am I involved again?
At the end of 2022 I was on holiday in Plettenberg Bay with time on my hands. The year end tours of Europe by the southern hemisphere nations had just ended with mixed results all around. But I had gleaned a number of things from what I had witnessed; chief amongst which was my belief that South Africa was likely to send the most rounded and best prepared squad to the RWC since the start of the series back in 1987 (although we didn’t get to participate until 1995).
So, I decided to build up stock on South Africa to win the World Cup; striking my first bet on 20.11.2022. (This should be seen against the background that I have historically made good money betting AGAINST South African sides in many disciplines!).
So – to respond to Dave’s request – here is my take on the potential winners :
South Africa: World class depth in almost every position except flyhalf although I regard Manie Libbok as a better distributing flyhalf than Handre Pollard. Libbok has introduced an element which has made it much more difficult for opponents to plan for how we will play. Goal kicking does not bother me – both De Klerk & Kolbe were tested in Europe at the end of 2022 and came up trumps. Libbok’s kicking coach from the Stormers intervened after he misfired against Wales and he was spot on against NZ at Twickenham.
NZ: Probably next best but this is not a great NZ side. A bit thin amongst the tight five and likely to make precisely the same mistake they made in 2019 by bringing back Retallick in the middle of the tournament from injury. I am not convinced they are masters at ‘finals rugby’. I clearly recall noting after they beat SA at Ellis Park in 2022 that the cost to them would be the RWC by retaining their coach. Also indifferently led on the field although I really like Sam Cane as a player.
France: I have a number of reasons why I don’t like France to lift the cup; some of which have nothing to do with form but rather karma.
1.) France ‘stole’ this tournament from South Africa. Subsequent developments in French rugby suggested there was almost certainly bribery.
2.) Home town expectation is going to be enormous & Gallic temperament comes into play.
3.) France must be the only national team where their fans will turn against them when they are struggling.
4.) They have already incurred a number of pivotal injuries.
Ireland: ‘Runners’ but I question their depth. Flyhalf could be rusty. Poor RWC record.
Scotland: Dave has the needle to his money! (I would be delighted to eat humble pie if I am wrong). They have a number of South Africans in their side who would not get near a Springbok side and their backs habitually do really silly things.
Wales: I don’t think so.
Australia: Maybe better in 2027 although they could have an easy passage through to the quarters. Or not.
England: May go further than expected although I would love to meet them in a final if South Africa gets through.
Fiji: May upset a couple but are unlikely to be suited to the rigours of up to 5-7 successive matches.
Samoa: See Fiji.
Georgia: May surprise at pool level. Will certainly soften up their pool opponents for at least 40 minutes in each match.
The current SA coaching team is the first in my lifetime that is able to surprise with both selections and tactics. Opponents who say ‘We know what to expect’ are delusional. There was plenty of creativity in their outing against NZ with, I suspect, more to come. What nobody appears to have noted is the creativity that our players of colour, in particular, have brought to the team. It’s so refreshing to note that the word ‘quota’ has disappeared from our conversation.
When settling on your picks consider the following; many of which are attributable to the late Danie Craven.
1.) Defences win World Cups.
2.) Give me locks and you give me a team.
3.) Matches are won in the front row
4.) Injuries & cards will be material to who lifts the cup.
Small wonder that NZ are always haranguing opponents to play a running game to suit them!
Win, lose or draw I trust you enjoy what will be an exciting event. Whatever happens the sun will rise on the morning of the 29th October and it probably won’t be the first time we have struck a losing bet if it all goes pear shaped.
Late footnote : Grateful thanks to my racing friend Warren; who alerted me to Aviator from which much of the money I have speculated on the RWC came!
You can rely on ABC for the best betting info!
If any of you applied the predictions from this post you must have got the lot.
I will be collecting a juicy seven figure amount shortly.
Only with hindsight appreciate the accuracy of your analysis.. right down to retalik and cane…
I do remember reading this when it was first posted.. influenced me greatly.
Thank you.
You can rely on ABC for the best betting info!
If any of you applied the predictions from this post you must have got the lot.
I will be collecting a juicy seven figure amount shortly.
No cars this time, Sammy.
But I do plan to donate a fair sum towards the assistance of any creature that has more then two legs and which cannot speak for themselves.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sammy Silver
No cars this time, Sammy.
But I do plan to donate a fair sum towards the assistance of any creature that has more then two legs and which cannot speak for themselves.
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