CAPE DERBY FINAL FIELD

Frodo wrote:

So then (given current ratings) Cousin Casey will receive around 4 kgs from CD - I know there is still 4 and a half months to go - and one can't be sure who will run, but for me I have put a few shekels on Waterberry Lane (should also come in at around 53 /54 kg) who is at ridiculous odds of 150/1 :ohmy:

.....and what was Glen Kotzen thinking.....should have skipped the Met with CC and this race was at his mercy....:oops:

@ Sylvester the tribe of snaith trainees is very interesting, how many GAU racehorses was pipped at the winning post.

Sean Tarry blasted them away with Princess Cala.

One needs to see these stats.

.....as a footnote it seems that the Magnier connections dumped poor Charles shortly after the Cape Derby.....they must have realized that he was not a star either......

Muhtiman wrote:

.....full sibling Charles should have had a better race record if he had been kept to a mile....and all due respect to the trainer but he was always under pressure with this 6ZAR BAR so called star...as training for the Magnier connections is no walk in the park...and because he ran 2nd to Attie in the 2019 Cape Derby and that farcical KZN Donkey Derby he was imvho no stayer either....and I know the dam well as a part owner and big past contributor here the late Warren Laird and I discussed her at length.....and yes the staying ability of the dam was never in question and the mitochondrial trial is centered in the dam line however Trippi progeny is stamped very soundly by his prepotency and genetic dominance and therefore very few of his progeny got the ground....one that immediately springs to mind was Deo Juvente but I do not like those odds....and although CD could win the Derby on his coconut does not mean he can stay....he is just way better than the rest of that field.... and I for one will be going very wide ...:whistle:

I agree that CD should be too good for the Derby field and that he should win on ability - not necessarily on him really staying the trip; the roughie I'm considering is the stable mate to Rockpool - Itsrainingwilliam (1/2 brother to Rain in Holland) - has mostly been running in sprints, but when stepped up to 1600 finished in front of King Regent, who looks held at level weights by Without Question - and WQ came within half-a-length of Rockpool - so in theory is better than Rockpool - 25/1 looks fair value to me (much better than the odds offered about Rockpool) - the only question is if he will stay - and I think he will, being a half-brother to Rain in Holland.

Then we have At My Command, but being by Querari out of a National Emblem mare, I have serious doubts if he can stay 2000.

So CD should win the Derby, but unfortunately by winning the Derby would not (to me anyway) indicate that he will see out the 2200 of the July; then there is also the question about weight - as Naresh pointed out, CD has a higher rating than all the current entries bar Al Muthana - so IF AM does not run in the July (even though I think he may take part), then CD would carry top weight of 60 kg (unless the rule about max weight of a 3yr-old trumps the other rule about weights being raised proportionally ) - and I can't see CD as a 3yr-old winning the July with 60kg :dry:

The precedent has been set where the weights can be raised proportionally even for 3yo's in the July. When Abashiri ran in the July it carried 59kgs for a 3yo due to Legal Eagle being nominated earlier then scratched.

Get Set for the SplashOut Cape Town Seafood & Jazz Racing Festival

The sun will be setting on the inaugural Summer Festival of Racing with the final event of the season, the SplashOut Cape Town Seafood & Jazz Racing Festival, taking place on Saturday, 25 February 2023 at the Hollywoodbets Kenilworth racing venue.

Destination Cape Racing, in partnership with SplashOut, the City of Cape Town, Schweppes, BloodStock, Gordon’s and Khaya Stables, is making this a family fun day to remember! For starters (and mains) attendees will be treated to the freshest seafood the ocean has to offer. From mussels and oysters to sushi and prawns, no one will be going home hungry!

There will be jazz throughout the day and a feature performance by The Voice South Africa season 2 winner, Craig Lucas, following the final race. He will be winding down the afternoon with hits like ‘Anti-Sociable’, ‘Better’ and ‘Happy’.

The main attraction will of course be the SplashOut Cape Derby GR1, one of the most illustrious races in the country, where Grade 1 horses will compete for the R1 500 000 purse. Come see whether Charles Dickens, this year’s favourite, will take top spot. More nail-biting racing action will continue with the side races including the Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes (Gr 2) and the Khaya Stables Work Riders vs Jockeys Championship.

But why should the adults have all the fun? The dedicated kids’ zone will keep little ones entertained all afternoon with jumping castles, clowns twisting and turning colourful balloons into an array of shapes, and a chill-out area to escape from the summer sun. Dedicated minders will be in the zone at all times, keeping an eye on the kiddies.

Entry to this premiere event is free and plenty of prizes are up for grabs. Good times, great vibes, and magical memories await!

Date: Saturday, 25 February 2023
Time: Gates open from 11:00am
Venue: Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Racecourse

I think that the Derby is cut and dried. Charles Dickens has lengths to spare on this field. The bookies should price up the rest excluding him to create a better traded market.
At My Command has a 6kg turnaround with those that beat him in the Politician. He was staying on in that race so I expect him to be a clear second. The minor places are wide open.

The July is a whole different story. If there is a sufficiently highly rated older horse, eg Al Muthana on 133, then CD will be capped at 57kg and Casey will come in at 53kg. That makes Casey very competitive, especially if he proves to stay better.
Some of the older horses will also be weighted to give the leading 3yos a hard time.
However, if the highest rated older horse is say 125, then CD will still be capped at 57kg, but Casey will carry 56.5 kg. That will make life tough for the older horses against CD.
Backing short priced ante post favourites 5 months in advance is bonkers- far too much can go wrong that could prevent the horse from running, and the price does not compensate for that uncertainty.

If there hasn't been changes to the conditions of the July, there is a chance that CD can carry more than 57kg's, as the weights can be raised proportionately to 60kg's.

I see an interesting ''new-comer' Double Superlative has been added to the WSB July board - but I can't find his current rating on the NHA's 'Merit Rating' - interesting - because depending on his rating, he could be a factor

Frodo wrote:

I see an interesting ''new-comer' Double Superlative has been added to the WSB July board - but I can't find his current rating on the NHA's 'Merit Rating' - interesting - because depending on his rating, he could be a factor

Double Superlative last rating was 125.

I think it can get a layoff allowance of 5. If thats the case it will be a 120.

The best option will be for Double Superlative to run in Pinnacle Plates and the Greyville 1900 for it to "protect" its rating. If you win 6 points cap at most and no rating increase for placed horses.

.....this horse was talked up big time as a 3yr old.....guess that the talk was for the man footing the bills.....a very long recouperation and a needs decent come back to get a nod to get in the big one.... .

Muhtiman wrote:

.....this horse was talked up big time as a 3yr old.....guess that the talk was for the man footing the bills.....a very long recouperation and a needs decent come back to get a nod to get in the big one.... .

I agree - only saw that he was now priced up - I thought he was retired as he is not listed on the NHA ratings - anyway at 25s I think there are quite a few more attractively priced at this stage :dry: