NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

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NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853503
There has been a noticeable trend of the favourites getting rolled in the 1st race of the day in all centres.
It is becoming too obvious that while in the days gone by it was possible to build up a kitty for the exotics later in the day, the trend nowadays is for punters to stumble at the first hurdle.

When outlaying in multiples, punters tend to start looking at the early events and throw in the odds on or short price pop in the 1st few races because it looks easy pickings.

Getting knocked out in the first leg of a multiple and backfooting for the rest of the day.

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  • Mac
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Re: Re:NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853505
Please present these trends.


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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853506
Good morning Mike and would say my gut feel tells me the same ?
I am not sure of stats as traditional local and overseas the trend is that one in every 3 favs win or 33%.

Maybe we must consider is a 5/10 fav in a grooms race the same value as the Breeders Cup fav at 5/10 ?
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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853516
Here is a sample of the month of October and how the fav's fared. Disturbing that the red hot odds on performed poorly with only 1 odds on pop winning.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DBNVILLE 01/10 Winner 10/1 Fav 5/4 Ran 2nd
Tftein 01/10 " 9/4 " 17/10 Ran 2nd
Grey 02/10 " 4/1 " 7/2 rAN 3RD
Vaal 04/10 " 5/2 " 5/2 won
Dville 05/10 " 15/4 " 5/10 2nd
vaal 06/10 " 17/2 " 33/10 2nd
fview 07/10 " 6/1 " 5/2 2nd
Tftein 08/10 " 6/1 " 13/10 0
Grey 09/10 " 6/1 " 5/4 4th
Grey 10/10 " 17/2 " 9/10 0
Fview 11/10 " 3/1 " 2/1 3rd
Dville 12/10 " 2/1 " 2/1 won
Vaal 13/10 " 18/10 " 18/10 won
Fview 14/10 " 5/2 " 5/2 won
Tftein 15/10 " 10/1 " 3/1 2nd
Grey 16/10 " 40/1 " 6/10 0
Grey 17/10 " 11/2 " 6/10 2nd
Fview 18/10 " 10/1 " 8/10 2nd
Dville 19/10 " 4/1 " 18/10 3rd
Vaal 20/10 "13/10 " 13/10 1st
Fview 21/10 " 4/1 " 28/10 2nd
Kworth 22/10 " 20/1 " 7/2 3rd
Grey 23/10 " 16/1 " 11/10 2nd
Turf 24/10 " 16/1 " 15/10 4th
Grey 25/10 " 2/1 " 13/10 2nd
Grey 26/10 " 1/5 " 1/5 1st
Vaal 27/10 " 9/2 " 2/1 4th
Fview 28/10 " 9/2 " 2/1 2nd
Tftein 29/10 " 100/1 " 5/2 2nd
Kworth 30/10 " 10/1 " 6/10 2nd
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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853522
A reader sent me a message saying only 5 of 30 won

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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853536
A reader sent me a message saying only 5 of 30 won

Race 2 - 12/30 favourites won 40%

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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#853537
The percentage of favourites to win on Dirt Surfaces in America could be very high especially in races with small fields.

If you a favorite punter, USA, is the way to go.

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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago
#853539
Stats supplied by Lyall Cooper

3RD RACE - 11/30 for 37%
4th RACE - 12/30 for 40%
5th RACE - 9/30 for 30%
last race 30 days in October 13/30 for 43%
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Bob Brogan.

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  • Mac
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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago
#853543
Mikesack’s = 6/30 = 20% = breakeven 4/1.

Raw average price winning fav = 17/10 (but more like 27/20 using average probabilities).



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Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Mac.

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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 4 months ago
#855170
The odds on pop gets touched off by the lesser fancied stable
Race 1 Turffontein.
Another hottie bites the dust.

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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 2 months ago
#857553
Will be interesting to see what transpires with the debutant Arg bred favourite in the first.
This stable has produced some puzzling results with their odds-on pops in the past.
With school fees and stationery high on the shopping list for many, I hope I am proven wrong.:whistle:

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  • Saint Tropez
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Re: NEW DISTURBING TREND AFTER SA RACING WAS " SAVED"

1 year 2 months ago
#857587
Disturbing is the fact that 4Racing has no clue whatsoever on scheduling of fixtures.

New trend from 4Racing is to not have any JHB meetings on Saturdays, can you believe it, not one Saturday meeting for the whole of January and only 2 Saturday meetings for February...............WTF

I can understand that the likes of Kings Plate and The Met should be standalone Saturday meetings but only having 2 Saturday meetings in JHB is ridiculous over a two month period.

The horse has truly bolted up North, these guys running a sh*t show up here. Not all of us can go to the midweek meetings, no wonder on course attendance and pools are crab, punters losing interest!
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