Classic Crop 2021/22

The Cape Guineas was quite a messy race with a few hard luck stories, but this does not detract from a smart win by Double Superlative which went to fetch his stable companion Pomp and Power in fine style and won going away. He is lightly raced, so still plenty of scope for improvement, and on breeding should be even better over 2000m. He has been entered for the Met, but given the strength of the older horses, imho would be better off in the Derby.
Remarkably, the top 4 all came from wide draws, attesting to the fairness of the Kenilworth summer course.
Two of the fancied runners, Waterberry Lane and Good Traveller were hampered at the start, and their runs can be ignored, although Good Traveller looked somewhat uptight behind the pens.
Trip of Fortune was nearly put over the rails by Universal when making his run up the outside, which cost him a place at the very least. It seemed that Universal was crossed by the eventual winner causing a chain reaction. We await the stipes enquiry.
A likely line horse is 3rd placed Cosmic Highway, 108, which would make the winner 113 and the runner up 110, with Zapatillas 107.
The form of the Concorde held up well, as did the Cape Classic form.
In addition to this field we saw a couple of other up and coming 3yo’s fight out the last race, albeit just an Mr 82, they both achieved ratings of around 99 when thrashing the older horses by 5L.

Two well contested 1400m gr 3 races at Turffontein for 3yos. The fillies race nearly a second faster than the colts race. At this stage the highveld fillies look stronger than the colts there.
Sprinkles stepped up on her earlier efforts to beat a decent field, and on breeding is likely to improve over further so could be another top triple tiara candidate for Elusive Fort ( and Narrow Creek Stud) along with Big Burn. Rain in Holland conceded 3kg to the others, so her 3rd place was full of merit, and she can turn the tables on this field in the Guineas at level weights. Eternity Ring also stepped up to be beaten under a length. Supreme Quest looked the right one at the weights, but was having this, her second run after the winter break very soon after her last, and should not be written off on this run.
William Robertson won a nice race to give Rafeef his first stakes winner. He is unlikely to go beyond a mile on breeding, whereas both Out of the Darkness and Prince of Fire are likely triple crown candidates. At this stage, however, the Cape colts look stronger.
The disappointment of this race for me was Perfect Witness which was weighted to beat the colts. She appeared in need of the run and this seemed to be an exercise gallop for her in that she was tucked away at the back of the field and never really asked for an effort.

There are a few 3yos entered for both the Queens Plate and the Paddock Stakes on Saturday, where they run against the best of the older generation at WFA. From what I have seen so far, I expect the older lot to dominate both races, but it will be a great test for the Classic crop.

Thanks Peter - I agree that the 2nd run after a break may have been the reason for Supreme Quest's below par run - but for the Guineas, I think one can start backing Rain in Holland (jockey arrangements will also be interesting) - as I have my doubts whether SQ can match her over 1600 at level weights; both Sprinkles and Eternity Ring should also prefer the 1600, but imo at level weights may struggle to beat RiH

That being said, the Tarry yard had a poor afternoon, so who knows if it is a once-off bad day, or a sign that things are not as good as can be in the stable - will watch their runners with interest over the next few weeks

As for the colts, I think it is anyone's guess at this time; for me I think Outofthedarkness was a very unlucky loser (head not straight at the finish) and I think he could be the leading light of the Gauteng 3 yr-old males at this stage; I know some of the Magner runners have been gelded, so improvement still possible; then Pyromaniac ran a disappointing race again (Tarry stable ?) and may need the 'unkindest cut of all'

I agree that the 3yr-olds in the LQP and MET would have their work cut out if they do take the plunge

Frodo wrote:

Thanks Peter - I agree that the 2nd run after a break may have been the reason for Supreme Quest's below par run - but for the Guineas, I think one can start backing Rain in Holland (jockey arrangements will also be interesting) - as I have my doubts whether SQ can match her over 1600 at level weights; both Sprinkles and Eternity Ring should also prefer the 1600, but imo at level weights may struggle to beat RiH

That being said, the Tarry yard had a poor afternoon, so who knows if it is a once-off bad day, or a sign that things are not as good as can be in the stable - will watch their runners with interest over the next few weeks

As for the colts, I think it is anyone's guess at this time; for me I think Outofthedarkness was a very unlucky loser (head not straight at the finish) and I think he could be the leading light of the Gauteng 3 yr-old males at this stage; I know some of the Magner runners have been gelded, so improvement still possible; then Pyromaniac ran a disappointing race again (Tarry stable ?) and may need the 'unkindest cut of all'

I agree that the 3yr-olds in the LQP and MET would have their work cut out if they do take the plunge

Zeus who is undefeated could be an interesting runner especially over the Derby distance. Half sibling to Derby winner Out Of Your League and Paybackthemoney who is also a staying type. He won well over 1600m last time so even got a chance in the Classic over 1800m.

Chansonette ran a cracker in the Paddock Stakes, and showed that she and Desert Miracle are right up there in ability with the best of the older fillies.
Although the Sceptre was a mess, the 3 yo’s ran well and it looks likely that a three year old will win the SA Fillies Sprint this year.
While the older big guns filled the places in the Queens Plate, the three year olds were close up and confirmed that this is a decent crop of classic colts.

Turffontein today some good 3yo performances.
William Robertson ran a cracker in the Progress 1600m- 4kg out at WFA against Majestic Mozart and only narrowly beaten.
Big Burn could not give 3kg to stablemate Freed From Desire, but both ran very good races. Under Your Spell way below best.
Zeus won his third in a row, and still needs to grow into that big frame and mature. The dam has already thrown a Derby winner, and Zeus looks likely to make his presence felt in the triple crown races, as there is plenty scope for improvement.

Double Superlative ran a cracker, and did as well as did Gold Standard a few years ago by running 4th in a strong field. Due to the change of conditions, DS carried 54kg vs GS 52kg. At least this year the Cape Derby is not on Met day, so the connections still have that option open.
Chansonette ran another great race, again just touched off by champion filly Captain’s Ransom.
It is already evident that both fillies and colts are well up to standard this crop.

The Gauteng season now in its closing stages, but still the KZN season ahead for the 3yos to show what they are made of.
Rain in Holland landed the Triple Tiara in good style, but the dearth of staying types evident. If she takes her place in the Woolavington she will find the likes of Chansonette very tough to beat. A great pity that Desert Miracle went wrong as on best form she is top class but probably best at a mile. Sprinkles chased RIH home in the first two legs and if she runs in the Empress Club could strike a big blow for the 3yos.
While Captain’s Ransom is still around, not easy for the 3year olds to win the open F&M races, but there is very good depth to this crop.
Some very useful types line up in the Umzimkulu today.
The sprinting fillies are strong in both CT and Gauteng.

Zeus made amends for his flop last time and he and winner Aragosta are developing into useful stayers. Red Saxon didn’t see out the trip, and Safe Passage unfortunately not able to line up. However, Captain Lannister and Pyromaniac did no favours for the Gauteng 3yo form in the Horse Chestnut.
In my opinion the Cape colts are much stronger, headed by Double Superlative and Pomp and Power, but some very useful backups in Cosmic Highway, Universal, Trip of Fortune, Zapatillas etc.
However, still plenty of time for the later developers to challenge.

A few weeks to go to the end of the season and the strength of this crop is now much more apparent, with a top contingent of colts in the July. The Jhb form now looks just as strong as the Cape form, but sadly Double Superlative sidelined for the major KZN races.
Some decent sprinting types as well .
The fillies have thrown up a triple tiara winner and useful sorts over all distances, but nothing of the stature of Captain Ransom, which this year should surely put the record straight in the Garden Province.
In my opinion an above average crop of colts and an average crop of fillies.