The Vodacom Durban July Log as at 31 May 2021

A real roughie is shah for the placings I think it's under rated

I agree with Mr PeterD. My fancy is linebacker with gtgl a massive runner then shah and rasc

mikesack wrote:

alterego wrote: No complaints with this field.
Top of my list of no hopers is Sovereign Spirit. No matter which way you spin it, he is not in the same hemisphere as Rainbow Bridge. One fluke run in the Met. Yes he is “weighted” favorably, but this is toughest and roughest race win. Each to his own I suppose.
Kommetdieding for me.

I think you nailed it. Tristful did beat SS at level weights in the Champion Stakes at Greyville.
The run before over the July C/D saw Tristful going down by .80 l to SS giving 4.50 kg.
Tristful now 5.50kg better off and IMHO the owner Mary Liley has been supporting Kzn racing for well over 50 years and deserves to have her horse in the race.

We can debate this all day long, but in the end it is a case of 'each to his own'; just to mention that I believe that SS has improved a lot since July last year (as has Belgarion) and his form in the Met and the 2 subsequent 'prep' runs seem to point to this - anyway imo his chances are much better than the current odds offered - and I have put my money where my mouth is

Looking at the other races on the card. I rate Mks Pride a big big runner.

Mossel wrote: If she is a keeper runs in the first 4 I will never punt 1c on horse racing again that's a statement. Hard luck to ziets they have been robbed

Mossel, I suggest you liquidate all your bookies’ balances, and please do remain in touch with us on the blogs. We value you. We don’t want to lose you to house chores.


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This year marks the 125th running of the Durban July.
In order to make a case for a Quartet pay out of 5 to 6 figures and more I am factoring in the following.

1. Rainbow Bridge will have no favours with the pole position, like last year when drawn 2. Won't be coming wide like in the Met.
2. The 3 y/o runners Linebacker, Rascallion, Kommetdieding, Shah Akbar and a few others have not raced with older horses yet.
3. Got the Green light has yet to prove he stays the 2200 and will meet Do it Again on worse terms than last year when he beat him by a neck.
4. Belgarion has been jocked by last year's winning jockey Fourie.
5.Will Running Brave set the pace and try to steal a march in the home straight with no supporters in the stands to cheer her home or will Crown Towers go out and set the gallop for his mate to Do it Again?
6.Is Do it Again long in the tooth now?

It makes for an intriguing contest and
The Quartet is going to pay for sure.

Will go wide and brass the fancied runners.

Two non-rocket-science reasons why we seem to have many runners under sufferance:

1. Rainbow Bridge, the best horse in the country with a big MR, has shown the middle finger to half the field. If this race was a pure handicap, which the July is not, he would carry a weight of what 71kg; and
2. The quality of SA’s racehorses at the top level may be deteriorating at an alarming rate.


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I took Soverign for places in the antepost at 13/1 and wins at 50/1 so as well as wins on Do it Again and Rainbow Bridge. A question if a horse carrying 53 with a clear run as GTGL and Belgarion had in last years July beat DIA by less than a length why would they be able to beat him with a 4 kg less advantage or is my logic flawed.
RB is a sentimental choice but will almost certainly be ridden different to last year.

Now that the draws are out i am going with Rainbow Bridge. The draw one is not ideal but with lotsa pace in the race might be a year for a low draw to win.

Luke/Sands/Muscutt combo have got the right horse this year.

1st 4 draws
2020 17/13/18/1
2019 8/3/14/15
2018 15/11/13/17
2017 8/1/12/17

Sly, those draws are amazing, especially on a half track.


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monty wrote: I took Soverign for places in the antepost at 13/1 and wins at 50/1 so as well as wins on Do it Again and Rainbow Bridge. A question if a horse carrying 53 with a clear run as GTGL and Belgarion had in last years July beat DIA by less than a length why would they be able to beat him with a 4 kg less advantage or is my logic flawed.
RB is a sentimental choice but will almost certainly be ridden different to last year.

Your logic is not flawed imo, but one has to take into account that GtG was a 3 yr-old last year, so according to the WFA scale would have 'improved' by 2 kgs, and also it seems probable (winning the Challenge in May) that he also 'got better' - how much is anyone's guess; ito Belgarion he certainly has improved quite a lot since the July last year if one looks at his runs in the QP and the MET - which is not to say that Do It Again is out of it.

As far as Rainbow Bridge is concerned, I can't see him beating GtG giving away 5 kgs, and 7 kgs to the 3 yr olds ( although probably not at his best, he only gave Catch Twenty Two 1,5 kgs in the Gold Challenge and just beat him by 0.6 lengths) - also giving weight away to the likes of Belgarion, Do It Again and even Sovereign Spirit won't be easy - so imo not unlikely that he does not make the first 4