MRvsCRvsSR

I hope this question is not too basic for this forum. i'd like to know how does Merrit Rating, Computaform Rating and Speed Ratings affect an outcome of a race? are these figures projections of a horses' ability or actual facts based on its past perfomance. what do all these ratings mean?

Well I'm sure lots of people could give you more detail, but in short:

MR's is a horse's official 'Merit Rating' and is calculated by the NHA by finding a 'line' horse in a previous race and then give a raing to the other horses in the race; MR's can change from one race to the next depending on how the horse performed in his/her previous race and will result in how much weight a given horse should carry in a MR rated handicapped; looks OK in theory, but in practice have a few problems (mainly resulting in the general race horse population MR's decreasing over time). Also imo, maiden winners are given much too high ratings 90% of the time and the only way to get the MR down is to run the horse and if it finishes downfield, the MR will be adjusted downwards (so are they encouraging horses to run nowhere?)

The Computaform and Speed Rating are ratings calculated my some mathematical formula by Computaform and does not have much worth imo

The problem is that all ratings are subjective based on the opinion of an imperfect human being, taking into account the runs of imperfect animals ridden by imperfect jockeys. If racing was as simple as ratings there would be no betting.

MR's are a perfect example, where the system has been used to punish good horses to the point that they cannot win, rather than handicapping for all horses to dead heat. The MR's are quick to be raised and slow to be reduced while the use of a line horse is questionable as it assumes 2 horses will repeat the result next time regardless of distance, course, jockey etc.To rely on them is a short cut to the poor house.

In the end handicapping is subjective and not a purely formula driven numbers game. Phil Bull of Timeform understood this.

K999, others who have forgotten more about SA racing and form than I will ever know will give you chapter and verse, but in simple terms all of these statistics are different calculations based on a combination of different variables relating to a horse and its performance.

None of them will directly affect the outcome of a race, but if you know what each of them means and how it is calculated, they can all help you to decide what kind of a chance the horse has in a race relative to its competitors. The absolute number of itself is not important, but how one horse's rating compares to another's using the same rating formula is crucial. Your assessment of the horse's chance then helps you decide whether to bet at the price offered by your bookie.

A horse race is obviously a competition not a computer, so predictions of performance can be wrong. An unexpectedly good or poor performance then gets input into the ratings formula, so that over time the accumulated information and knowledge becomes a sounder basis for your betting.

So - I think I am getting this right - MR is the official SA horseracing authority's measure of a horse based on a consistent but fairly bare formula of actual race performance. It has a big influence in the handicap weight a horse will carry around the track.

Computaform is the race card published by the racing companies, and its rating is based on how Computaform itself thinks the horse will run. I don't know exactly what variables are taken into account, but it is likely to factor in the course, the going, whether the horse is comfortable at the distance, the declared jockey and other things in addition to the variables the influence the MR. Whether it takes the right things into account or not, all you can hope for is that the Computaform guys apply their formula consistently, so that over time you gain experience as to whether Computaform's predictions are reliable.

Speed rating I know less about in SA, but my guess would be that it only looks at raw speed over ground under race conditions, and not how the horse performed overall. SA doesn't have sectional timings that other countries have, which break the course into sections to help punters assess performance at different stages of a race and different places on the course, and all-importantly, relative to the rest of the field. Some members of this forum go to the trouble of recording and reviewing each race and doing their own sectional timing.

Can others provide further enlightenment, or alternatively correct my blissful ignorance?


Scotia: have you thought of setting up a Wiki? I am not talking about the great NZ rugby league captain, but a self-policing reference library for key terminology that readers can contribute to themselves, and people can learn more about the game?

Good evening greenbook, yes we touched on it earlier and will revisit, good idea.


scotia

Guys,
I never forget a book I use to have (lent it to some a-hole who never returned
it) that listed 38 different reasons for picking winners in South Africa - the
main point being that ratings of whatever nature were meaningless as they didn't
take into account any or all of the variables that affected horse racing - assuming of course that our dearly beloved horses were machines which they are not.
The point being that on average 33% of favourites win and how many "rockers" have you seen winning the Jackpot/Pick Six/PA despite their ratings ???
Enough said!

I disagree. For 300 years handicapping and the wfa scale has proved itself. And it applies especially to better horses who often run to right to their ratings. The weight and gravity is the single biggest effect in racing.

The best in-your-face evidence would be to look at our biggest handicap race. I would say since merit has been used to handicap the July we've not only had this year's dead-heat, but the El Picha photo fin, Ipi Tombi inches in from of 7 others, last year 1/2 dozen withing less than a length etc etc.

On the other hand, in level weighted races (like wfa Gr1 1600m) the Free My Heart, Winter Solstice, Flaming Rock, Pocket Power, National Spirit just keep winning graded races. At the level weights, you can't beat them (all things being normal)

So ratings are not meaningless at all, in fact, ratings are used to frame the weights for every non plated race. Our problem here is that given the number of horses we have, that the depth of good horses is so poor and bad horses are impossible to rate whereas with good horses it comes down to 1 lb.

100% agree JD - a MUST for the top Horses, the less experienced and lower class Horses not so important as first timers beat exposed moderate Horses everyday of the week.

Jim.

Should the recent olympic champions,now be handicapped,for their excellent achievements, be penalised for their good performance....

handicapping sucks...why stop a good athlete(horse)...

HEADLINE NEWS...Micheal Phelps will now carry 10kg's more for the 2012 100m freestyle, due to him winning by "x" number of lengths