Include these in your exotics . Take these also for bipot and pa.
R1 nr 14
R2 nr 14
R3 nrs 5, 2
R4 nr 8
R5 nrs 5, 2
R6 nr 8
R7 nrs 2 , 3 ,6
R8 nrs 6 , 5
R9 nrs 5 , 4
Great initiative by Sporting Post
www.sportingpost.co.za/2019/10/handicapping-merit-ratings/
www.sportingpost.co.za/2019/10/merit-ratings-the-coaching/
And my opinion:
Turffontein race 3
All well exposed and I will post each filly/mare merit rating achieved in each of their last 5 runs if you handicap each race without the restrictions of the handicappers. To win a handicap you either must be improving still , or you should have proven in the past you capable to beat your current rating in a true run race. Where the total donkeys normally arrives is when its a false run race and that rating can normally totally be ignored. I adjusted all ratings before the 10 point increase to what they currently are.
Nr 1 Flichity by farr
7/1 odds
64kg!!!!!!
Current rating 103
Last 5 runs :
102
100
102
102
99.
Couldnt run to / or beaten her rating. No chance , especially with 64kg on her back . Coming from a break and new stable.
Should be double her current price .
Nr 2 Pretty Border
7/1 odds
61,5kg
Current rating 100
Last 5 runs :
104
104
100 (when carrying 62,5kg)
—- No rating – false run race , although she won
104
Beaten 3 out of 4 times her rating each time by 2kg . Only concern is the 61,5kg she carries.
Huge price at 7/1 and more than double the price she should be. Only concern is its her first run back after a short rest. If she doesnt run a cracker then next time fill the kitty.
Nr 3 Bondiblue
5/1 odds
61,5kg
Current rating 98
Last 5 runs :
81
94
97
99
97
Ran almost exactly to her rating in last 3 runs . Will battle to win but definitely place chance.
Nr 4 My dream chaser
7/1 odds
59kg
Current rating 95
Last 5 runs :
86
94
87
97
75
Erratic form but capable to upset but looks like soundness issues. Can upset quartet but stable mate preferred. Should be in double figures.
Nr 5 Emily hobhouse
7/2 odds
55kg
Current rating 85
Last 5 runs:
77
80
83
95 !!!
85 (first race after rest and way too short)
Beaten current rating by 5kg in 2nd last start before being rested. Comeback run over too short distance still run to current rating. 7/2 worth a try still. Only concern is this run is only 2 weeks after comeback run and can caught horses out and result in a flat run . If she doesnt run a cracker now then next start will be cherry ripe.
Nr 6 rabia the rebel
14/1 odds
54,5kg
Current rating 84
Last 5 runs:
78
83
82
84
79 (saddle slipped)
Obvious pacesetter and wont be surprise to see her go close with a handy weight . Definite quartet chance , if she makes it a false run , she can slow them down and skip and upset. Nice place odds.
Nr 7 circle of lattitude
5/1 odds
53kg
Current rating 81
Last 5 runs :
77
—-False run
74
80
80
Handicapper is just on top of her but sure have a quartet chance . Too short the price but she will be able to keep Rabia the Rebel honest and make sure its a true run race.
Nr 8 jacko boy
22/10 odds
52,5kg
Current rating 82
Last 5 runs:
67 (too short the distance)
76
80
84
82
Proven to be just ahead of handicapper still but very short priced at 22/10. She cant beat pretty border or emily hobhouse if either run to proven ability.
My selections:
5 Emily hobhouse
2 Pretty border
8 jacko boy
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