Tote- Win Pool Manipulation

....for money followers it is then important to then punt at the jump.....as I still battle to see how a 25/1 shot is paying below R10 15min before a race....always thought that it was a sizable early tote bet that caused this....then again our pools are so small ....a few Grand swings even the big things..... :huh: a bigger problem is waiting to punt at the jump and the online betting starts to slow....and then next thing you not on.... :oops:

thank you for these graphs and info. Durbanville and Kenilworth can run without my money in future... they have broken the trust relationship between us

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Sunday 05 August 2018
Race 3 Race Closed
NO NOW - 3MIN - 6MIN - 9MIN - 12MIN - 15MIN
1 18.40 22.80 21.70 29.70 23.00 22.20
2 6.80 6.60 8.00 7.90 9.90 11.80
3 12.00 11.30 15.20 14.50 12.80 13.10
4 16.20 8.70 4.80 4.10 2.90 2.70
5 44.70 16.60 33.60 47.60 34.40 32.90
6 2.20 3.00 2.80 2.40 3.90 3.90
7 15.90 10.60 14.00 16.10 16.10 19.50
8 SCR SCR SCR SCR SCR SCR
9 27.30 16.50 19.80 21.30 12.20 16.40
10 24.30 13.40 24.30 33.50 25.10 24.60
11 3.30 4.20 3.70 4.60 4.30 4.10

.....how's the blow out of the 4 horse in the last minutes I know we are co-mingling but before the international money was added there must of been a sizable local bet.....places as well....wanted to back places but odds were below R2 but paid a whopping R3-90... :huh:

4 Mr T 36.00 66.00 50.00 44.00 36.00 28.00 22.00 18.00

So the horse was shortening with the bookies from O/P of 36/1 to S/P of 18/1 whilst tote price was drifting out...

.....was actually Tote favorite 7 min before the jump.... :huh:

Muhtiman wrote: .....was actually Tote favorite 7 min before the jump.... :huh:

Some-one knew something (hence shortening of bookies odds) and placed large early tote win bet...when they saw better fixed odds with bookies (when compared to tote price), likely cancelled the large tote win bet hence increase in tote price...

Was only 2 lengths off the 1/1 favourite so didn't run like the 36/1 O/P...

Some-one knew something about the horse - didn't get within 7 lengths of winner in 3 previous runs but was shortened by bookies...same equipment and same jockey as last time...

.....normally if pools were smaller I would suspect bet cancellation....however in this case larger local money was on before the co-mingling surge and hence the big swing.....seems Kom Naidoo stable coming to form and confidence to punt with the profit from strikes made yesterday.... :dry:

Agree that the large early tote bet was local money from some-one in the know...the horse's form was poor and jockey and equipment were unchanged so the bookies odds shortening was indicative of some improvement that few were knowledgeable of...and those few placed a large early tote bet...

This is not a game of skill...if everyone was privy to similar information then skill comes in the analysis thereof. Where some information is with-held to benefit a few, then it is a rigged game and will continue to lose participants...

.....but part of that skill is also to spot and access betting moves....in the 80's there were some books on tote analysis and how to spot the "sneaky" money....I'm only miffed with this case as I have been following this horse but when saw how short it was on the tote did not want to take the skinny prices vs the exposed form had it been 20/1 I would have had a small place bet and lumbered the swingers.....the only consolation that I got was the quartet....which generally I dont take.... but believing that the horse was legitimately short had to at least place behind the good thing seemed to be a better value of extracting a better profit...... :oops:

Tuesday 14 August 2018
Race 6 Race Closed
NOS PAYS NOS PAYS
4 - 7 0.70 1 - 7 11.00
6 - 10 6.70 4 - 10 11.90
3 - 6 7.00 5 - 7 15.20
3 - 10 7.10 2 - 10 15.50
2 - 7 8.30 4 - 9 15.80
3 - 7 8.40 4 - 6 17.20
6 - 7 9.10 1 - 2 17.70
2 - 4 9.30 4 - 5 19.10
7 - 10 9.40 3 - 4 19.10
1 - 4 9.60 1 - 3 19.80

Thirsk Race 6 swinger....the 4 and 7 are 33/10 and 11/2 respectively...somebody lumped on late and got it wrong?...the 4 was pipped for 3rd...

Lekker!... slim vang sy baas!...

TNaicker wrote: Tuesday 14 August 2018
Race 6 Race Closed
NOS PAYS NOS PAYS
4 - 7 0.70 1 - 7 11.00
6 - 10 6.70 4 - 10 11.90
3 - 6 7.00 5 - 7 15.20
3 - 10 7.10 2 - 10 15.50
2 - 7 8.30 4 - 9 15.80
3 - 7 8.40 4 - 6 17.20
6 - 7 9.10 1 - 2 17.70
2 - 4 9.30 4 - 5 19.10
7 - 10 9.40 3 - 4 19.10
1 - 4 9.60 1 - 3 19.80

Thirsk Race 6 swinger....the 4 and 7 are 33/10 and 11/2 respectively...somebody lumped on late and got it wrong?...the 4 was pipped for 3rd...

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I was watching the Bet365 in-race betting and noticed that the 4 and 7 were shortening there and our tote pool for swingers hadn't shown "Closed" as yet...did some-one try something after the pool should have been closed?