MERIT AND FORM ANALYSIS VODACOM DURBAN JULY 2018
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MERIT AND FORM ANALYSIS VODACOM DURBAN JULY 2018
6 years 11 months ago
With huge thanks to Charles Faull
1. MATADOR MAN – 4-Y-O. b.g. by TOREADOR – SAHRA (MOGOK)
2YO: 1 start: 2nd 1200m Vaal when losing race at start.
3YO: 9 starts: 3 wins; slow away at at least 6 of his starts. Won KZN Breeders Million (1600m). Earned a high FMR when a fast finishing 2,25 lengths 3rd in the Gr1 Champions Cup (1800m.Greyv) after losing 3 lengths at the start.
4YO: 10 starts: 1 win. At last start in WSB 1900m (Gr2)(ex Gordon’s Gin) he lost 3 lengths at the start and despite being hampered in the straight, ran on 2,75 lengths 3rd to Exclusive Silva.
Most impressive in his gallop on the all-weather.
This is his first start beyond 1900m. His pedigree suggests that he will prefer this extra as his sire’s 3rd dam TIN GODDESS is inbred to classic/stout breedshaping mare AURORA. TIN GODDESS’s grandam DONNA bred the crack English filly GWEN (2nd 1000 Guineas; 3rd dam of Epsom Derby placed PELERIN)
Matador Man’s dam SAHARA ran 2nd KZN Fillies Guineas and traces directly to AURORA through the stayer SKYLARKING, dam of Epsom Derby winner LARKSPUR.
This x-linked inbreeding to AURORA inspires confidence that Matador Man will stay the 2200m.
He looks well in at the weights, but his bad habit of being slow away is a big challenge for S’Manga Khumalo in his quest to win his third Vodacom.
CONSIDER FOR ALL EXOTICS.
2. WHITE RIVER – 3-Y-O. b.g. by TRIPPI – IRISH TORRENT (by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY):
showed a temperament problem when trying to bite Rocket Countdown when fighting out the Selangor (1600m), beating both Do It Again and Undercover Agent. Ran a brilliant half length 2nd to Tap O’Noth in Cape Guineas. Blew the start when 4,5 lengths back in Cape Derby. First run gelded and fitted with earmuffs when 2 lengths back in the Daily News.
Trainer BRETT CRAWFORD: “ He needed the Daily News run and is working well. He shows the same level of work as Edict Of Nantes, and as a 3YO with 53kg must be a live runner.”
MUST BE CONSIDERED FOR ALL EXOTICS.
3. TILBURY FORT – 4-Y-O.b.g. by HORSE CHESTNUT – COLLEEN (by RESTRUCTURE):
Has made good improvement since gelded for 2 wins and a shorthead 2nd in the Jubilee.
25/1 when as a 3YO ran a top-class 2nd in the Betting World 1900.
Met Yakeen on 1lb better terms than WFA when beaten a short head in the Jubilee (Gr3.1800m), challenging bravely in a driving finish, and staying on.
BAD DRAW TO BEAT, BUT CERTAINLY IN IT AT THE WEIGHTS IF HE GETS 2200M.
4. ROCKET COUNTDOWN – 3-Y-O.b.g. by ALADO – SHINKANZEN (by CORDOBA):
Beat White River, Do It Again and Undercover Agent in the Selangor. A good 2nd in the Winter Guineas and the Winter Classic (1800m) where he ran Rainbow Bridge to a length conceding him 2lb. In that race he gave Spring Man a 7lb beating, the same margin that Spring Man ran behind Eyes Wide Open in the Investec Cape Derby.
This indicates that he is a top-class 3YO and there is no reason to believe that he won’t carry his merit to 2200m.
BOTTOM WEIGHT. DRAW 3. MUST BE INCLUDED IN ALL EXOTICS.
5. AFRICAN NIGHT SKY – 4-Y-O.b.g. by DYNASTY – STARZENE (by COZZENE):
Unraced at 2, he won 5 of 8 starts (1200-2400m) including the Cape Winter treble – Guineas, Classic and Derby. His 6 length romp, hands-and-heels, in the Derby placed him up with the likes of Al Sahem and Edict Of Nantes at the top of Form’s Three-Year-Old Free Handicap for classic (2000-2400m).
From 5 starts (1400-2000m) to date at 4, he has confirmed this top-class merit, and this Vodacom July will be his first run of the season over his optimum distance. In the 2000 metre Sun Met, he stayed on well to run 2 lengths 6th to Oh Susanna. His two preps in Durban, a luckless shorthead 2nd over 1600m, and an unextended ¾ length win in the Gr3 Cup Trial over 1800m; leave little doubt that he is peaking perfectly.
He carries 57kg (125,4lb) from 10 draw over an optimum distance and is justifiably favourite to win.
A four-year-old his WFA concession to 3YO’s over 2200m in July is 7lb (3,5kg), so 3YO’s White River, Yakeen, Fiorella, Rocket Countdown, Pack Leader (all with 53kg) and Secret Potion (52kg), have a slight edge at the weights. At 54kg Majestic Mambo and Do It Again meet African Night Sky at about WFA.
Of these 3YO’s, only SECRET POTION has proved herself beyond 2000m.
There are many questions that only the race will answer.
GIVEN A CLEAN PASSAGE IN A TRUE RUN RACE THIS 4YO WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK NOW THAT HE IS BACK TO HIS PROPER DISTANCE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE WINTER DERBY. INCLUDE IN EVERYTHING.
6. MAJESTIC MAMBO – 3-Y-O.b.c.by MAMBO IN SEATTLE – REGAL CLASSIC (by AL MUFTI):
Unraced at 2.
Cruised home in first 3 starts at 3, all 1800m, including the Sea Cottage St.
Dogged by bad luck in all 3 legs of the Joburg Triple, he again looked unlucky when coming to Greyville for the Daily News on 2 June – slow away and attempted to jump the grandstand shadow – for a fast finishing ¾ length 2nd with Callan Murray up.
A grand looking colt, prepotently inbred to Buckpasser’s great daughter LASSIE DEAR. His grandam is by the SAF Champion Racehorse and Sire ELEVATION. Third dam, PANACHE, a fast daughter of LORDS (SNL) from South Africa’s greatest ever family, DROHSKY (GB).
Callan Murray now knows him. He should now know Greyville. He meets African Night Sky on WFA terms. Must be a big runner.
INCLUDE IN ALL EXOTICS.
7. ABASHIRI – 5-Y-O.b.g. by GO DEPUTY – DONYA (by ELLIODOR):
The last time he raced at Greyville was in the 2016 Vodacom Durban July as a 3YO where under 59kg he ran a smashing race – in fact on a WFA assessment he put up the run-of- the-race when beaten only 5 lengths (7,5lb) by 4YO The Conglomerate on 15lb (10 lengths) worse terms than WFA.
His Joburg form leading into this race has been top-class and he has the grandmaster Piere Strydom on his back from no.2 draw. But he has to shoulder 58,5kg, so Piere will have to have a trouble free passage.
MUST INCLUDE IN ALL EXOTICS.
8. DO IT AGAIN – 3-Y-O.b.g. by TWICE OVER – SWEET VIRGINIA (by CASEY TIBBS):
This rangy, athletic 3YO can only improve over this extra 200 metres. By exciting new sire Twice Over, out of an Oaks winner by Casey Tibbs, out of a mare by Royal Prerogative. From 2 starts at Greyville – won a Guineas and stayed on for a close 4th in the Daily News.
He has won 3 of only 7 starts to date and should definitely improve over this extra.
He will have many supporters with 54kg.
ANOTHER MUST FOR THE EXOTICS.
9. ELUSIVE SILVA – 5-Y-O.ch.g. by SILVANO – ESPIRIT (by FORT WOOD):
Unraced at 2.
Won 3 of 9 starts at 3 including an eye-catching 2 lengths win in the Cape Winter Derby.
Won 2 of 3 starts at 4 including the Cup Trial (Gr3. 1800m. Greyville) despite soundness problems.
From 4 starts at 5, he put his hand up as a contender with a fine win under 60kg in the World Sports Betting 1900 (Gr2) at his last start.
Will Bernard Fayd’Herbe be able to ride him at 56,5kg?
A winner of 6 races including 3 graded stakes from 16 starts, we know he is potentially a superstar as long as he makes it to the race 100% sound. We also know that this is the first time since the Winter Derby that he has been given a chance over an optimum distance. The mystery of the 2018 Vodacom deepens.
IGNORE HIM AT YOUR OWN PERIL.
10. LIEGE – 5-Y-O. b.g. by DYNASTY – LYRICAL LINDA (by JALLAD):
Unraced at 2.
Won 4 of 14 at 3: 2,85 lengths back in The Daily News, then ended the season with a win in the Jubilee.
Won 1 of 5 starts at 4.
From 4 starts this season he progressed to win the Sansui Summer Cup on 26 Nov 2017. Rested 6 months after that and given a pipe opener in a 1400 metre sprint on 10 June 2018.
Just how good he is, and how ready he is, only the race will tell.
ANOTHER MYSTERY HORSE FOR EXOTIC PUNTERS.
11. MADE TO CONQUER – 4-Y-O.b.g. by DYNASTY – FESTIVE OCCASION (by CASEY TIBBS):
Unraced at 2.
2 starts at 3 for a close 2nd.
As a 4YO has won 6 of 8 starts including his last 4 in a row including the Gr3 Lonsdale (2400m. Greyville).
Just how good is he? He is on a strong upward curve and is one of the few that has proved that he will stay the trip.
Bottom weight of 53kg as a 4YO. Jeff Lloyd up.
HE MUST BE INCLUDED IN THOSE EXOTIC PERMS.
12. CORAL FEVER – 5-Y-O. ch.g. by JUDPOT – CORAL THREE (by RICH MAN’S GOLD):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 7 starts: 2 wins – won 2 over 1450m Turffontein.
4YO: 4 starts: 2 wins (1600-1800m) including Jubilee Hcp (Gr3. 1800m. Turff)
5YO: 8 starts: 2 wins, both 2000m Turffontein.
Has made extraordinary improvement since fitted with blinkers – 2nd Hawaii St (1400m) by 0,75 lengths, won Colorado King St (Gr2. 2000m), won Champions Challenge (Gr1. 2000m).
In the Champions Challenge he conquered 5 Gr1 SW’s – Abashiri, Nother Russia, Deo Juvente, French Navy and Legal Eagle: Gave Abashiri 2lb and beat him a neck; gave Nother Russia 3lb and beat her over 5 lengths.
As Marinaresco showed last year, class counts in this race over 2200m. He has 60kg, draw no.4 and Muzi Yeni who has won 3 races on him. He concedes Abashiri 3 half-kilos so it whill be interesting to see how these 2 heavy weights assert their Champions Challenge form on this race.
ANOTHER WHO HAS TO BE RESPECTED FOR ALL EXOTICS.
13. DARK MOON RISING – 4-Y-O.b.g. by IDEAL WORLD – FULL MOON RISING (by SECOND EMPIRE):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 4 starts, 2 wins – 8,25 lengths (16lb) behind Edict Of Nantes in the Daily News
4YO: 9 starts, 2 wins
Ran on well when 3rd in The Sledgeghammer (1800m) beaten a length and 2nd in the World Sports Betting 1900 (1900m) at his last two starts.
His trainer is confident that he will be a better horse over this extra 300 metres, and warns that you leave him out at your peril with bottom weight from draw no.3.
ANOTHER UNKNOWN THAT ONLY THE RACE WILL RESOLVE
14. FIORELLA – 3-Y-O.b.f. by CAPTAIN AL – ARCOLA (by CAESOUR):
2YO: 1 start; 1 win
3YO: 9 starts; 3 wins
The beautiful little giant killer! Defeated crack Snowdance in the Fillies Guineas, and gave the champion Oh Susanna (AUS) a hard race in the Woolavington 2000m.
She’s all heart, draw 8 and Mark Khan. A big ask for a 3YO filly carrying 53kg, but she’s a Greyville specialist and you are guaranteed to get a run for your money.
YOU GO GIRL!
15. SECRET POTION – 3-Y-O.b.f. by ELUSIVE FORT – LEMON DROP GIRL (by PARADE LEADER):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 9 starts, 4 wins.
Top-class 3rd when 1,25 lengths behind Takingthepeace in the Fillies Classic (1800m) and then won the S.A. Oaks by 1,2 lengths from Flichity By Farr who was caught wide when 3rd in the Track And Ball Oaks next time out.
Bottom weight of 52kg and another we know for certain will stay the 2200m.
This is a very good and consistent filly. She will relish a fast run race.
CERTAINLY A RUNNER FOR TRIFECTAS AND QUARTETS.
16. YAKEEN (AUS) – 3-Y-O.b.c. by TEOFILIO – REINE (by ROYAL ACADEMY):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 6 starts; 4 wins.
Showed top class potential when holding off a big finish by 4YO Tilbury Fort on 1lb worse terms than WFA in the Jubilee Hcp (Gr3. 1800m).
On pedigree 2200m will be more to his liking. Only the race will reveal how good he is, but with a 66% win rate to date and a good draw, he must be respected.
THIS JULY IS A MINDGAME WITH A MINEFIELD OF IMPONDERABLES.
17. GOLD STANDARD – 4-Y-O.b.c. by TRIPPI – OLYMPIC DAM (by MODEL MAN):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 7 starts: 3 wins – won Selangor Cup from Edict Of Nantes; 2nd Cape Guineas by 0,5 lengths to William Longsword.
4YO: 5 starts
Trainer GLEN KOTZEN: “Gold Standard has had foot problems since his top-class 3YO season. We think we have now sorted that out and he is striding out very well at home. He needed it badly when running on well in the Gold Challenge, and Craig said he strode out well in his gallop.”
Dam is by Model Man out of Olympic Duel, both of whom put up run-of-the-race performances in the July.
He is well drawn, but 59,5kg makes this a very difficult task.
CAN HE EMULATE HIS GRANDPARENTS MODEL MAN AND OLYMPIC DUEL OVER 2200METRES AT GREYVILLE?
18. STAR EXPRESS – 5-Y-O.ch.f. by SILVANO – MAJESTIC STAR (by DOOWALEY):
Grandam is ¾ sister to Model Man.
2YO: 3 starts; 1 win.
3YO: 4 starts; 3 wins: 4,35 lengths behind Smart Call in Paddock Stakes.
4YO: 7 starts; 2nd Majorca by 0,5 lengths.
5YO: 6 starts; 2 wins: Won Victress St (Gr3. 1800m); 2nd by 1,5 lengths to Champion Snowdance in the Majorca (Gr1); beat African Night Sky in a Pinnacle (1600m); 2nd beaten a neck in Tibouchina St.
Definitely bred to stay the 2200m, and comes into the race with strong, current Greyville form – 3 positives and a good draw at no.9.
Silvano’s get better with age and distance.
THE POSITIVES EARN HER RESPECT FOR MONEY.
19. PACK LEADER
20. CROWD PLEASER
SUMMARY:
Tote punters in this 2018 Vodacom Durban July are faced with a minefield of imponderables. Weigh your studies up against the following metric: IN A WFA RACE OVER 2200METRES IN JULY, 4 AND 5 YEAR OLD MALES WOULD CARRY 60,0KG (FEMALES 57,5KG) AND 3YO MALES 57,0KG (FEMALES 54,5KG).
1. MATADOR MAN – 4-Y-O. b.g. by TOREADOR – SAHRA (MOGOK)
2YO: 1 start: 2nd 1200m Vaal when losing race at start.
3YO: 9 starts: 3 wins; slow away at at least 6 of his starts. Won KZN Breeders Million (1600m). Earned a high FMR when a fast finishing 2,25 lengths 3rd in the Gr1 Champions Cup (1800m.Greyv) after losing 3 lengths at the start.
4YO: 10 starts: 1 win. At last start in WSB 1900m (Gr2)(ex Gordon’s Gin) he lost 3 lengths at the start and despite being hampered in the straight, ran on 2,75 lengths 3rd to Exclusive Silva.
Most impressive in his gallop on the all-weather.
This is his first start beyond 1900m. His pedigree suggests that he will prefer this extra as his sire’s 3rd dam TIN GODDESS is inbred to classic/stout breedshaping mare AURORA. TIN GODDESS’s grandam DONNA bred the crack English filly GWEN (2nd 1000 Guineas; 3rd dam of Epsom Derby placed PELERIN)
Matador Man’s dam SAHARA ran 2nd KZN Fillies Guineas and traces directly to AURORA through the stayer SKYLARKING, dam of Epsom Derby winner LARKSPUR.
This x-linked inbreeding to AURORA inspires confidence that Matador Man will stay the 2200m.
He looks well in at the weights, but his bad habit of being slow away is a big challenge for S’Manga Khumalo in his quest to win his third Vodacom.
CONSIDER FOR ALL EXOTICS.
2. WHITE RIVER – 3-Y-O. b.g. by TRIPPI – IRISH TORRENT (by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY):
showed a temperament problem when trying to bite Rocket Countdown when fighting out the Selangor (1600m), beating both Do It Again and Undercover Agent. Ran a brilliant half length 2nd to Tap O’Noth in Cape Guineas. Blew the start when 4,5 lengths back in Cape Derby. First run gelded and fitted with earmuffs when 2 lengths back in the Daily News.
Trainer BRETT CRAWFORD: “ He needed the Daily News run and is working well. He shows the same level of work as Edict Of Nantes, and as a 3YO with 53kg must be a live runner.”
MUST BE CONSIDERED FOR ALL EXOTICS.
3. TILBURY FORT – 4-Y-O.b.g. by HORSE CHESTNUT – COLLEEN (by RESTRUCTURE):
Has made good improvement since gelded for 2 wins and a shorthead 2nd in the Jubilee.
25/1 when as a 3YO ran a top-class 2nd in the Betting World 1900.
Met Yakeen on 1lb better terms than WFA when beaten a short head in the Jubilee (Gr3.1800m), challenging bravely in a driving finish, and staying on.
BAD DRAW TO BEAT, BUT CERTAINLY IN IT AT THE WEIGHTS IF HE GETS 2200M.
4. ROCKET COUNTDOWN – 3-Y-O.b.g. by ALADO – SHINKANZEN (by CORDOBA):
Beat White River, Do It Again and Undercover Agent in the Selangor. A good 2nd in the Winter Guineas and the Winter Classic (1800m) where he ran Rainbow Bridge to a length conceding him 2lb. In that race he gave Spring Man a 7lb beating, the same margin that Spring Man ran behind Eyes Wide Open in the Investec Cape Derby.
This indicates that he is a top-class 3YO and there is no reason to believe that he won’t carry his merit to 2200m.
BOTTOM WEIGHT. DRAW 3. MUST BE INCLUDED IN ALL EXOTICS.
5. AFRICAN NIGHT SKY – 4-Y-O.b.g. by DYNASTY – STARZENE (by COZZENE):
Unraced at 2, he won 5 of 8 starts (1200-2400m) including the Cape Winter treble – Guineas, Classic and Derby. His 6 length romp, hands-and-heels, in the Derby placed him up with the likes of Al Sahem and Edict Of Nantes at the top of Form’s Three-Year-Old Free Handicap for classic (2000-2400m).
From 5 starts (1400-2000m) to date at 4, he has confirmed this top-class merit, and this Vodacom July will be his first run of the season over his optimum distance. In the 2000 metre Sun Met, he stayed on well to run 2 lengths 6th to Oh Susanna. His two preps in Durban, a luckless shorthead 2nd over 1600m, and an unextended ¾ length win in the Gr3 Cup Trial over 1800m; leave little doubt that he is peaking perfectly.
He carries 57kg (125,4lb) from 10 draw over an optimum distance and is justifiably favourite to win.
A four-year-old his WFA concession to 3YO’s over 2200m in July is 7lb (3,5kg), so 3YO’s White River, Yakeen, Fiorella, Rocket Countdown, Pack Leader (all with 53kg) and Secret Potion (52kg), have a slight edge at the weights. At 54kg Majestic Mambo and Do It Again meet African Night Sky at about WFA.
Of these 3YO’s, only SECRET POTION has proved herself beyond 2000m.
There are many questions that only the race will answer.
GIVEN A CLEAN PASSAGE IN A TRUE RUN RACE THIS 4YO WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK NOW THAT HE IS BACK TO HIS PROPER DISTANCE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE WINTER DERBY. INCLUDE IN EVERYTHING.
6. MAJESTIC MAMBO – 3-Y-O.b.c.by MAMBO IN SEATTLE – REGAL CLASSIC (by AL MUFTI):
Unraced at 2.
Cruised home in first 3 starts at 3, all 1800m, including the Sea Cottage St.
Dogged by bad luck in all 3 legs of the Joburg Triple, he again looked unlucky when coming to Greyville for the Daily News on 2 June – slow away and attempted to jump the grandstand shadow – for a fast finishing ¾ length 2nd with Callan Murray up.
A grand looking colt, prepotently inbred to Buckpasser’s great daughter LASSIE DEAR. His grandam is by the SAF Champion Racehorse and Sire ELEVATION. Third dam, PANACHE, a fast daughter of LORDS (SNL) from South Africa’s greatest ever family, DROHSKY (GB).
Callan Murray now knows him. He should now know Greyville. He meets African Night Sky on WFA terms. Must be a big runner.
INCLUDE IN ALL EXOTICS.
7. ABASHIRI – 5-Y-O.b.g. by GO DEPUTY – DONYA (by ELLIODOR):
The last time he raced at Greyville was in the 2016 Vodacom Durban July as a 3YO where under 59kg he ran a smashing race – in fact on a WFA assessment he put up the run-of- the-race when beaten only 5 lengths (7,5lb) by 4YO The Conglomerate on 15lb (10 lengths) worse terms than WFA.
His Joburg form leading into this race has been top-class and he has the grandmaster Piere Strydom on his back from no.2 draw. But he has to shoulder 58,5kg, so Piere will have to have a trouble free passage.
MUST INCLUDE IN ALL EXOTICS.
8. DO IT AGAIN – 3-Y-O.b.g. by TWICE OVER – SWEET VIRGINIA (by CASEY TIBBS):
This rangy, athletic 3YO can only improve over this extra 200 metres. By exciting new sire Twice Over, out of an Oaks winner by Casey Tibbs, out of a mare by Royal Prerogative. From 2 starts at Greyville – won a Guineas and stayed on for a close 4th in the Daily News.
He has won 3 of only 7 starts to date and should definitely improve over this extra.
He will have many supporters with 54kg.
ANOTHER MUST FOR THE EXOTICS.
9. ELUSIVE SILVA – 5-Y-O.ch.g. by SILVANO – ESPIRIT (by FORT WOOD):
Unraced at 2.
Won 3 of 9 starts at 3 including an eye-catching 2 lengths win in the Cape Winter Derby.
Won 2 of 3 starts at 4 including the Cup Trial (Gr3. 1800m. Greyville) despite soundness problems.
From 4 starts at 5, he put his hand up as a contender with a fine win under 60kg in the World Sports Betting 1900 (Gr2) at his last start.
Will Bernard Fayd’Herbe be able to ride him at 56,5kg?
A winner of 6 races including 3 graded stakes from 16 starts, we know he is potentially a superstar as long as he makes it to the race 100% sound. We also know that this is the first time since the Winter Derby that he has been given a chance over an optimum distance. The mystery of the 2018 Vodacom deepens.
IGNORE HIM AT YOUR OWN PERIL.
10. LIEGE – 5-Y-O. b.g. by DYNASTY – LYRICAL LINDA (by JALLAD):
Unraced at 2.
Won 4 of 14 at 3: 2,85 lengths back in The Daily News, then ended the season with a win in the Jubilee.
Won 1 of 5 starts at 4.
From 4 starts this season he progressed to win the Sansui Summer Cup on 26 Nov 2017. Rested 6 months after that and given a pipe opener in a 1400 metre sprint on 10 June 2018.
Just how good he is, and how ready he is, only the race will tell.
ANOTHER MYSTERY HORSE FOR EXOTIC PUNTERS.
11. MADE TO CONQUER – 4-Y-O.b.g. by DYNASTY – FESTIVE OCCASION (by CASEY TIBBS):
Unraced at 2.
2 starts at 3 for a close 2nd.
As a 4YO has won 6 of 8 starts including his last 4 in a row including the Gr3 Lonsdale (2400m. Greyville).
Just how good is he? He is on a strong upward curve and is one of the few that has proved that he will stay the trip.
Bottom weight of 53kg as a 4YO. Jeff Lloyd up.
HE MUST BE INCLUDED IN THOSE EXOTIC PERMS.
12. CORAL FEVER – 5-Y-O. ch.g. by JUDPOT – CORAL THREE (by RICH MAN’S GOLD):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 7 starts: 2 wins – won 2 over 1450m Turffontein.
4YO: 4 starts: 2 wins (1600-1800m) including Jubilee Hcp (Gr3. 1800m. Turff)
5YO: 8 starts: 2 wins, both 2000m Turffontein.
Has made extraordinary improvement since fitted with blinkers – 2nd Hawaii St (1400m) by 0,75 lengths, won Colorado King St (Gr2. 2000m), won Champions Challenge (Gr1. 2000m).
In the Champions Challenge he conquered 5 Gr1 SW’s – Abashiri, Nother Russia, Deo Juvente, French Navy and Legal Eagle: Gave Abashiri 2lb and beat him a neck; gave Nother Russia 3lb and beat her over 5 lengths.
As Marinaresco showed last year, class counts in this race over 2200m. He has 60kg, draw no.4 and Muzi Yeni who has won 3 races on him. He concedes Abashiri 3 half-kilos so it whill be interesting to see how these 2 heavy weights assert their Champions Challenge form on this race.
ANOTHER WHO HAS TO BE RESPECTED FOR ALL EXOTICS.
13. DARK MOON RISING – 4-Y-O.b.g. by IDEAL WORLD – FULL MOON RISING (by SECOND EMPIRE):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 4 starts, 2 wins – 8,25 lengths (16lb) behind Edict Of Nantes in the Daily News
4YO: 9 starts, 2 wins
Ran on well when 3rd in The Sledgeghammer (1800m) beaten a length and 2nd in the World Sports Betting 1900 (1900m) at his last two starts.
His trainer is confident that he will be a better horse over this extra 300 metres, and warns that you leave him out at your peril with bottom weight from draw no.3.
ANOTHER UNKNOWN THAT ONLY THE RACE WILL RESOLVE
14. FIORELLA – 3-Y-O.b.f. by CAPTAIN AL – ARCOLA (by CAESOUR):
2YO: 1 start; 1 win
3YO: 9 starts; 3 wins
The beautiful little giant killer! Defeated crack Snowdance in the Fillies Guineas, and gave the champion Oh Susanna (AUS) a hard race in the Woolavington 2000m.
She’s all heart, draw 8 and Mark Khan. A big ask for a 3YO filly carrying 53kg, but she’s a Greyville specialist and you are guaranteed to get a run for your money.
YOU GO GIRL!
15. SECRET POTION – 3-Y-O.b.f. by ELUSIVE FORT – LEMON DROP GIRL (by PARADE LEADER):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 9 starts, 4 wins.
Top-class 3rd when 1,25 lengths behind Takingthepeace in the Fillies Classic (1800m) and then won the S.A. Oaks by 1,2 lengths from Flichity By Farr who was caught wide when 3rd in the Track And Ball Oaks next time out.
Bottom weight of 52kg and another we know for certain will stay the 2200m.
This is a very good and consistent filly. She will relish a fast run race.
CERTAINLY A RUNNER FOR TRIFECTAS AND QUARTETS.
16. YAKEEN (AUS) – 3-Y-O.b.c. by TEOFILIO – REINE (by ROYAL ACADEMY):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 6 starts; 4 wins.
Showed top class potential when holding off a big finish by 4YO Tilbury Fort on 1lb worse terms than WFA in the Jubilee Hcp (Gr3. 1800m).
On pedigree 2200m will be more to his liking. Only the race will reveal how good he is, but with a 66% win rate to date and a good draw, he must be respected.
THIS JULY IS A MINDGAME WITH A MINEFIELD OF IMPONDERABLES.
17. GOLD STANDARD – 4-Y-O.b.c. by TRIPPI – OLYMPIC DAM (by MODEL MAN):
2YO: unraced
3YO: 7 starts: 3 wins – won Selangor Cup from Edict Of Nantes; 2nd Cape Guineas by 0,5 lengths to William Longsword.
4YO: 5 starts
Trainer GLEN KOTZEN: “Gold Standard has had foot problems since his top-class 3YO season. We think we have now sorted that out and he is striding out very well at home. He needed it badly when running on well in the Gold Challenge, and Craig said he strode out well in his gallop.”
Dam is by Model Man out of Olympic Duel, both of whom put up run-of-the-race performances in the July.
He is well drawn, but 59,5kg makes this a very difficult task.
CAN HE EMULATE HIS GRANDPARENTS MODEL MAN AND OLYMPIC DUEL OVER 2200METRES AT GREYVILLE?
18. STAR EXPRESS – 5-Y-O.ch.f. by SILVANO – MAJESTIC STAR (by DOOWALEY):
Grandam is ¾ sister to Model Man.
2YO: 3 starts; 1 win.
3YO: 4 starts; 3 wins: 4,35 lengths behind Smart Call in Paddock Stakes.
4YO: 7 starts; 2nd Majorca by 0,5 lengths.
5YO: 6 starts; 2 wins: Won Victress St (Gr3. 1800m); 2nd by 1,5 lengths to Champion Snowdance in the Majorca (Gr1); beat African Night Sky in a Pinnacle (1600m); 2nd beaten a neck in Tibouchina St.
Definitely bred to stay the 2200m, and comes into the race with strong, current Greyville form – 3 positives and a good draw at no.9.
Silvano’s get better with age and distance.
THE POSITIVES EARN HER RESPECT FOR MONEY.
19. PACK LEADER
20. CROWD PLEASER
SUMMARY:
Tote punters in this 2018 Vodacom Durban July are faced with a minefield of imponderables. Weigh your studies up against the following metric: IN A WFA RACE OVER 2200METRES IN JULY, 4 AND 5 YEAR OLD MALES WOULD CARRY 60,0KG (FEMALES 57,5KG) AND 3YO MALES 57,0KG (FEMALES 54,5KG).
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Re: MERIT AND FORM ANALYSIS VODACOM DURBAN JULY 2018
6 years 11 months ago
Silks for your sweepstakes
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