Race 4 - Sean Bean is an interesting entrant - This filly has had I think 3 trainers in 2 years and has earned from 1200m to 2200m. She was reported not striding with blinkers last time - Though carded with blinders her trainer has since removed them - My rationale for giving her a chance tomorrow is based on a few runs - The run that is my main guide is that 3rd place in a MR 86(ave 77) - tomorrow she carries 56.5kg in a MR 76(ave 71) - Another run that I like is the 4th over 2200m at Flamingo where she shouldered 58.5kg in open company.. I suppose I will have to take it on trust that the last dismal run was a fluke as she had been pretty consistent up until then- Her rider has a knack of riding well for raiders and draw 6 is a plus - I will not be shocked should she earn but it is not out of the realms of possibility that she compounds late and runs tailed off last but at 33-1 I'll buy a ticket and surely float field in a few exactas instead of taking a Lotto ticket. If it was a few years ago and the Sand track was still the Pride of V Town I would have a proper tilt on her. If she still raced under her first caretaker - Woody- I doubt she would be at such long odds.
R2 Twice A Lady looks to run well from a proper draw - the outsider to consider(may need a run and is drawn badly) is Rashka who has raced in Maidens that produced 6 winners - She tries blinkers and Lalia should also improve.
R5 Winter Watch should have been much closer in the Swallow Stakes but for a troubled passage - Tough field with Arrisa, Myfunnyvalentine(has run well fresh), Winter's Forge(needed last) and the form horse Fredrico's Dream all capable of winning.
R6 I will include all three mares as they race off a 2.5kg sex allowance and are drawn reasonably well.. an open race though.
R7 I'm including Wonderous Climber as he only has 52.5kg to carry and should start to improve after a November gelding but the top three at the weights all look like decent horses.
R8 FOREST EXPRESS could well have earned if not won earlier in the week but for late obstruction. She is still carded as a runner so I would include - The still immature Pale Lilac rises in class but drops in distance and weight so I'll include her. Maple Syrup is not a very big horse yet has won all her starts( I will hope to beat her as I think that if she was really tops her trainer would have tried her in Features but maybe she just needed time to mature) - I'm not sure what to make of DRESSED TO IMPRESS who was shouted a winner the day before she made her debut against a group of mostly potential showjumpers. She won that race as if she was dropped in at the 400m so only a fool would ignore that. Tricky
R9 - I hope not to have a bet here - It's the kind of boozy race where you ask your wife which names she likes and then box in a sw(luckily there are no greys or you know she would say :"that pretty white horse" - One I would include is Seal My Fate who jumps from 5 and gets blinkers - She drops in distance but her first trainer earned her then owners stakes over similar trips in the Maidens - A big negative is that she did some serious pace-work last week over 2400m and gave her all when swamped at the 400m.
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