New merit ratings after the Met!

Oh Susanna 115
Last Winter 119
ANS 102
Eagle 121
Marinaresco 118

Which was the line horse?

That is 100% correct as i said it on saturday already when people thumbsucked some weird ratings. I will attached the ratings i did saturday and handicapper agreed 100% with it .
In handicaps and specific condition races, the horses must be followed closely as they ran above their ratings without being able to be penalised:
African night sky ...ran 15 points above his rating. If july betting opens now he will be very hot fav !!!!
Safe harbour ... ran 6 points above her rating.
Krambambuli....ran 5 points above his rating.
Coral fever .... ran 6 points above his rating .
Horizon .... ran 7 points above his rating .
Expect SH , Kram , CF and Horizon to win minor listed/ grade 3 races in coming months ... ANS ...i will have a full antipost go on him for July and cover it with only Eyes Wide Open(also underrated at 108 like snowdance .. i have EWO at a 113 and snowdance a 120 but she needs to show she can achieve that first over 2000m+)

I don't trust those ratings - for me I'd rather take the view that Legal Eagle, Marinaresco and Captain America ran below their ratings - especially LE imo had no luck from the draw and then was rushed around them off (what seemed to me) a fair pace - than believing that all of Oh Susanna, Last Winter and especially African Night Sky, Safe Harbour and Krambambuli ran that much above their ratings - an alternative view ....

Oh Susanna 106
Last Winter 110
Marinaresco 109
Legal Eagle 109
Captain America 108
African Night Sky 108
Safe Harbour 100
Krambambuli 104
Gold Standard 103
Nother Russia 96
Sail South 101
Coral Fever 101
Horizon 100

... which would mean that all of Safe Harbour, Krambambuli, Coral Fever and Horizon ran more or less to their ratings .... time will tell

[... which would mean that all of Safe Harbour, Krambambuli, Coral Fever and Horizon ran more or less to their ratings .... time will tell [/quote]

You also like to look for multiple line horses in a close band. If the above are they then I too support your alternative ratings. (M, CA and LE did not run to their ratings)

Doubt Marinaresco a good choice for the line horse?

The handicappers are constrained by rules- have to use something in the first three, and obviously could not use the first two as they clearly ran above their ratings.
The only problem is that the early pace looked a bit suspect.
I agree with Frodo that it’s hard to believe that all of Krambambuli, Coral Fever, Safe Harbour etc ran so much above their ratings when well beaten. However, equally unlikely that the class trio of Marinaresco, Legal Eagle and Captain America could run 3,4,5 and 10 lb below best.
However, if you don’t use Marinaresco, you get even higher outcomes with Legal Eagle and Captain America. African Night Sky ran above his rating so also no help.
I think that the answer is somewhere between the official result and Frodo’s.

I think Frodo is saying that Krambambuli, Coral Fever, Safe Harbour and Horizon all ran TO their ratings and then should be the line horses to calculate the race ratings of the others which he listed.

I think Marinaresco is not a good choice for linehorse. That view forces you to accept that Krambambuli for instance runs 3kgs better than his rating of 105 and that Coral Fever runs 4kg better than his 100.

Using a handicapping filter, the Met is a very difficult race to understand. A hard fought WFA race can (and often does) cause lower rated horses to be sucked up in what I think of as the "herd" effect.

However, this was very predictable because once again the handicappers' options are short. The handicapping guidelines rule that the line horse must come from the top 5. That rules out the possibility that non of LE, Capt A and Marinaresco could possibly run a lb or 3 below their ratings, it had to be one of them that must run their full rating, whatever the outcome.

Oh Sussana and Last Winter are the only two horses in the race that were the "improvers". They had run 8 and 6 times and could only win if they improved, so they can't be the line horse. Legal Eagle was dropped and Captain America as LH just puts everything up another 0.5kgs. So Marinaresco had to be it.

If the July were run today, African Night Sky would be under sufferance on his official rating of 102 instead of (having Marinaresco as LH) his unofficial rating of 116. So alternative story line of not under sufferance but slung in by (7kgs minus minimum weight for colts some 4.5kgs.

It is going to be a fun Durban season.

PS Who makes those guidelines up? Presumably they are designed to protect horses from unrestricted measurements. Is this a case of unintended consequences?

Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote: That is 100% correct as i said it on saturday already when people thumbsucked some weird ratings. I will attached the ratings i did saturday and handicapper agreed 100% with it .
In handicaps and specific condition races, the horses must be followed closely as they ran above their ratings without being able to be penalised:
African night sky ...ran 15 points above his rating. If july betting opens now he will be very hot fav !!!!
Safe harbour ... ran 6 points above her rating.
Krambambuli....ran 5 points above his rating.
Coral fever .... ran 6 points above his rating .
Horizon .... ran 7 points above his rating .
Expect SH , Kram , CF and Horizon to win minor listed/ grade 3 races in coming months ... ANS ...i will have a full antipost go on him for July and cover it with only Eyes Wide Open(also underrated at 108 like snowdance .. i have EWO at a 113 and snowdance a 120 but she needs to show she can achieve that first over 2000m+)

And yes.... he did open up fav a day later ....