MET 2018

PeterD wrote:

Chris van Buuren wrote: How much is oh Susanna under sufferance at wfa?
She gets 8.5kgs from le
How much is the wfa scale for a 3 year old filly this time of year?

The Met is now straight WFA plus 2.5kg fillies allowance. The WFA is 6kg.
On the official ratings of 123 for LE and 108 for OS she is thus 5kg under sufferance.
However, LE has earned that rating over 1600m, and I think that 120 is enough to win this year. So she needs to improve about 4kg on her rating.
I think that the 108 awarded was too high, although justified on what she beat- I think she ran about 103.
She can improve more, but I think this is a very tough ask for her.
However, she can’t beat Snowdance in the Majorca, and already has a Gr1 for stud so they have nothing to lose by having a go.

She would be a big runner in the Derby

Thanks, that was my feelings I just needed the actual amount under sufferance confirmed.
Must still be the top rated to lose, even at 120.

PeterD wrote:

Chris van Buuren wrote: How much is oh Susanna under sufferance at wfa?
She gets 8.5kgs from le
How much is the wfa scale for a 3 year old filly this time of year?

The Met is now straight WFA plus 2.5kg fillies allowance. The WFA is 6kg.
On the official ratings of 123 for LE and 108 for OS she is thus 5kg under sufferance.
However, LE has earned that rating over 1600m, and I think that 120 is enough to win this year. So she needs to improve about 4kg on her rating.
I think that the 108 awarded was too high, although justified on what she beat- I think she ran about 103.
She can improve more, but I think this is a very tough ask for her.
However, she can’t beat Snowdance in the Majorca, and already has a Gr1 for stud so they have nothing to lose by having a go.

She would be a big runner in the Derby

Always interesting to compare thoughts .... I am in agreement that OS ran to around 103, so by my calculations and assuming on has LE at 120, then OS would be 6 kgs out with LE ..... and also anything between 4 kgs and 5 kgs out with runners like Marinaresco, Sail South and Captain America .... so if she was mine I'd rather take on Snowdance in the Majorca, as in the Fillies Guineas she was beaten just more than 3 lengths from a bad draw .... if one compares her with Fresnaye, it seems logical that she could be about 2 lengths better than her run in the Fillies Guineas shows .... and who knows how the draws will play out in the Majorca; I also agree that the best move perhaps would have been to run her in the Derby....

After yesterday's supplementary entries, I would have to think that there are not many that can win the Met ....

Legal Eagle: On straight ratings (mine) it would seem that he ran a little below the form he showed last year. The stable seemed to think that they had him at his best on Saturday, and if one looks at the race in the cold light of day, he really just scraped in due to a very well judged ride; so imo still the one to beat but not as clear cut as one would have thought a week ago ...

Marinaresco: Looking at the LQP, of course the assumption could be made that he would have the better of LE over the 2000, but as many has alluded to, he would need a strong pace to do that; interesting that Our Mate Art from the same ownership is still a runner at this stage - could be that they use that one to make the pace ?

Captain America: The 2000 of course looks to be a touch too far, however on class and current form, he has to be considered, and if he is allowed to set his own pace, who knows ?

Sail South: Happy to have a few bob riding on him at 40's; even at current odds he still looks like nice each-way value imo; showed again on Saturday that he is very capable and on his Champions Cup win, there is every possibility that he will see out the 2000, especially off a slow pace

Copper Force: Put himself into consideration with a great effort on Saturday; the question remains if that was a fluke and also if he is really as effective over 2000; still at current odds not the worst option for an each-way stab imo

Those would be my top 5, next in line for me would be Nother Russia and African Night Sky; NR of course not sure to run, and a difficult choice for the connections whether to take on Legal Eagle or Snowdance; I think one can forgive her her effort in the Paddock - she seemed a little lost going round the left-hand turn for the first time, and imo will put a better effort next time, whether she runs in the Majorca or the Met; ANS has to make up a few lengths on the other contenders, but may still have some improvement to come, so not totally without hope

For me, I think Last Winter is much too short at current odds; yes he really should have beaten Milton last time, but so what ? On my ratings he is as much as 8.5 kgs out with LE and even with more improvement, I can't have him even at double figure odds - but this is racing and I have been wrong many times before. Others that seem to have something to find would be Gold Standard, Cascapedia, Eyes Wide Open, Cacapedia and Oh Susanna (if she runs) - all of these would be between 4 and 6 kgs out with LE on my calcs

nice summary guys.I agree the 4s abt last winter is to skinny but im almost certain Delpech would agree that he rode last winter poorly last time.He should of won that race easily and should of remained unbeaten.He has a trainer that knows how to win the met and agree on ratings he cant win it but still remains my selection to win the race.Would be interesting to see if he rides last winter or cascapedia.

Snaith has confirmed Oh Susanna as a runner

9/2 Legal Eagle is huge and a crazy price

He will be half that price if he lines up

I see there is also some 11/2 on Interbet

Bob Brogan wrote: I see there is also some 11/2 on Interbet

Makes one wonder if they know something that we don't

And how come Black Arthur has not been taken out yet - thought I saw in the Stipes report that he has been suspended for 6 weeks

Frodo wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: I see there is also some 11/2 on Interbet

Makes one wonder if they know something that we don't

Contemplating...... Connections will most likely scratch and all the punters money down down the drain