KENILWORTH Saturday 9/1/16

Brilliant days racing

I see Gold Circle article saying Rabada has had an interrupted prep

Early picks. Still lots of studying to do and replays to watch.

Race 3 - Guiness - full of ability, Marcus opted for him over the talented Brutal Force.

Race 6 - Will dutch both Spirit of Hamilton - improver, fast finishing last time, better over the 1800m and will be right there - and Helderberg Blue - Have a soft spot for this horse and I can't desert him here. He has a chance.

Race 7 - Rabada, even with the weight, but a tentative pick for now. I like Marinaresco a lot too, he's looking for the 1800 big time.

Race 8 - Same Jurisdiction and Bela-Bela for now.

Race 9 - Legislate. I make Legal Eagle the lurker now, even at 1600m

Race 10 - Inanna

Masters Eye would have gone close to winning the Premiers Trophy if not clipping heels , 10/1 big price in the peninsula

Nebula had Moogamir on toast last time, just his the front a bit too early imo

Big runner on Saturday

winning ways on to follow


VILAKAZI is carded to race on Saturday 9 January.
Venue: KENILWORTH
Race Number: 11
Carded Off Time: 17:55
Description: FRANSCHHOEK MOTOR MUSEUM MR 85 HANDICAP
Stake: R 82000.00
Distance: 1600m
Number: 7
Weight: 54.50Kg
Draw: 2
Trainer: Brett Crawford
Jockey: C Orffer

Bob Brogan wrote: Masters Eye would have gone close to winning the Premiers Trophy if not clipping heels , 10/1 big price in the peninsula

Not often you see a horse getting into so much trouble close to home and still runs on to get 4th - will go very close with luck on his side.

mr hawaii wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: Masters Eye would have gone close to winning the Premiers Trophy if not clipping heels , 10/1 big price in the peninsula

Not often you see a horse getting into so much trouble close to home and still runs on to get 4th - will go very close with luck on his side.

Apologies for going against the grain, but judging on the run of the 31/10, it is difficult to see Master's Eye finishing ahead of Spirit Of Hamilton, if anything, the finishing distance between the two should increase in favour of Spirit Of Hamilton, surely?

My 2 cents on the days racecard

Race 1 - Lady Astor a worthy favorite as he behind a decent sort last time and I remember Snaith saying the horse would come on from the run. However, Sabrina fair and Ichkeria get the two best workriders in the Cape which could make a big difference. Can't have an odds on horse without the best workrider for me so i would tread very lightly here.

SABRINA FAIR x ICHKERIA x LADY ASTOR

Race 2 - Snaith babies been the best so far this season and you must expect Bernard to have chosen the best of the lot. Star flash could stake a claim and Miss stake the best of the raced runners.

OVER DRIVE x BRANDED GREEN x MISS STAKE

Race 3 - there's 3 horses head and shoulders above the rest here but all coming off breaks. Marcus jumps on Guiness so must be fancied over Brutal Force and Trip Tease on the turf and after a layoff not for me. Belong to me could be in the shake up if fit and well but I fancy Captain Alfredo might be able to land a blow with the form he's in. Formlines look pretty strong and have been franked. Juan two three can pop up if reproducing his 2 year old form.

GUINESS x CAPTAIN ALFREDO x BRUTAL FORCE

Race 4 - Tough start to the P6 here, very open race. A lot of runners coming from the joiners arms formline but I don't fancy it at all, maybe one or two max for the P6 from it. The stone thrower has always had ability and on the run to Ernie should be a huge runner. Captain Swarovski has the Capes top jock in the irons and the run behind Silicone Valley was not bad at all. Cuban Emerald a lurker and won't be leaving this one out of the P6 as was heavily supported in runs before his break.

THE STONE THROWER x CAPTAIN SWAROVSKI x CUBAN EMERALD

Race 5 - You either fancy Nightingale or you go the field in the P6. The bass stable fancy the horse to follow up but the form hasn't been franked and I fancy a few other to stake a claim. Deep secret has a lot going for it, pole position, a better jockey in the irons and third run after rest. Also should beat the favorite if you use Arabian world as a line horse. Nina Katrina could enjoy the extra as well as Roman Perfection.

DEEP SECRET x ROMAN PERFECTION x NINA KATRINA

Race 6 - A very competitive race and many have strong claims. Silicone Valley is an old favorite and seems to be over all her problems, fought on valiantly last time out to a very good sort and cracks pole position. Helderberg Blue looks to be finding form and Bass rates it his best chance out of his runners significantly over Spirit of hamilton which surprised me. Deo juvente has the draw to beat as does Krambambuli but I fancy him to set the pace which was very effective in the Victress Moons a couple weeks ago. The conglomerate has a spotless c&d record and must bounce back soon but not tomorrow for me.

HELDERBURG BLUE x KRAMBAMBULI x SILICONE VALLEY

Race 7 - Plenty with chances and a lot of eyes will be to see if Rabada can bounce back to top form. Star Chestnut needed both comeback run and will relish the extra furlong. I have him beating rabada at the weights and with him drawn on the paint. Mooghamir should be respected from the De Kock stable with a very good first effort in the cape. Fancy a couple lurkers here in Leige and Cape Speed to pop up.

STAR CHESTNUT x LEIGE x RABADA

Race 8 - Same Jurisdiction is the best horse in the race hands down and I made him a confident first selection. After looking at the Victress Moon replay and seeing how the horses at the end of the line round the turn had no where to go it worried me. It's going to be very hard for SJ to get round as the likes of Harlem shake and Ma Choix aren't going to hang around from wide draws. The course suits smart call as he will almost certainly be much handier than SJ and if it runs anything like the Victress Moon thats a huge advantage in such a big field. The race on the 07/04 when SJ beat Smart call from a wide draw SJ got a clean run down the straight, I dont think it'll be that easy this time out and I'll be taking the two in the P6. I expect Acrostar to run into the back end of quartets. Happy to get kicked out the P6 if a 3 year pops up.

SMART CALL x SAME JURISTICTION x ACROSTAR

Race 9 - Futura or Legislate take your pick I'm not even going to argue because everyone has an opinion. I'm brassing Captain America from my P6 as i can't see him getting away and being allowed to dictate the race like last time (that was the best ride of Orffers life by the way). Act of War and Noa from goa are lurkers of the highest order. I do wish the field was still smaller as puts Act of War at a huge disadvantage and he would be a huge runner from an inside draw. Heartland to run into the back end of quartets.

FUTURA x ACT OF WAR x LEGISLATE

No interest after the main race, I will just be playing the P6 with a couple smaller bets for interest. Good luck to all for the day

Cant argue too much with TML assessment of most of the races.

I wouldn't read too much into Marcus choice of rides.
I think Guinness as a G1 winner is the obvious choice for him as proven class, but I'm not sure he is the better horse of the 2 Jooste sprinters. However, based on the distance and the trainers comments I'm not sure BF will be at best for this. The fact that he was galloping 1400m last week (groom up) doesn't strike me as them trying to get him to peak sharpness for the shorter trip.
Actually think Trip Tease and Captain Alfredo are the only ones with form ,whom will be happiest over the distance so will be interesting.

Likewise I think the ride on Legal Eagle is more to do with the prep for the Met and the fact he probably thinks the Snaith horses will be too good in this with Aow having a poor drawer to boot.

I reckon Futura is the one most reliable to run a good race but in this field any of the favourites finding a bit of trouble could leave them unplaced..I'm backing AoW because too good a price for such a good horse, but still think Legislate at his best is best horse in the race.

Helderburg Blue runs well when I don't back him and nowhere when I DO. I wont back him...so you should all be safe to:)

A horse I feel will run a big race is Qing (5/2) in R10. Snaith has the first two in the betting, and it is strange that the bookies have Jets-A-Blazing as short as 3/1 when she is a one time winner conceding 4.5kgs to the two time winner and stable companion.

Not sure J-A-B is running close to the current MR of 91, if not, then she theoretically is carrying too much weight, whereas Qing could be better than rated.

Hoping stable companion to both, Provenance, sets a strong gallop which will assist Qing who is jumping from a fairly wide stall.

R5, I think the value lies with Deep Secret (11/2). Jumps from stall gate 1 and having it's third run back, looks like the extra 400m will suit. Really difficult to tell how the favourite and recent maiden winner Nightingale will fair, the collateral form is not too flash but I guess the horse can do no more than win. Not sure that 7/2 is the right price though.

Finally, rowed in with Same Jurisdiction and Futura, enjoy the racing.

can't believe Bezamod was 12/1 earlier on wsb, should've looked at those last 3 races :sick:

Also they've suspended betting on the baby race so lets see what prices they reopen at.