Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

TheBluntPunt wrote: deepdownrebel can run into the top 4 imo in the first with that low weight (mr goddens 4.5 kg allowance might help) i think. and I don't appear to be the only one, judgin by the lil bit of early support.

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote: deepdownrebel can run into the top 4 imo in the first with that low weight (mr goddens 4.5 kg allowance might help) i think. and I don't appear to be the only one, judgin by the lil bit of early support.

Don't want to put you off BUT genes suggest that this is bred for Show Jumping - 4 previous foals noted on Formgrids and not one win between them - Best of them managed 10 lengths behind while one foal ran three times for a combined 240 lengths behind!!!
I would rather go for NOODLE (one recorded sibling - winner and placed 4 times from 5 runs) or SENSE OF PURPOSE (half sister to 9 and 4 time winner - Makzoos, Boston Legal - half sister to BAH) who both have family ties which suggest speed and performance. HEAPS OF FUN is also bred to run but might need further while TIDE IS TURNING has shown winning form and with a rating of 84 should be in the exacta if the first timers are not ready.

Godden and Naidoo only have a 5% strike rate - at 40-1 you could take a chance but at 8-1 the odds are against you

Thanks. that's true - but wonder where the support is coming from? Bookie smashing?

My problem is that there are so many well-bred runners in this race, (MAD PUSHPA is a half sister to GR 2 winner DYNAMIC, JUD'S Express half sister to King Of Indians etc) that you are taking a HUGE GAMBLE on a horse that has a pedigree without legs with an appy that needs his 4kg's. Perhaps the horse is working like a bomb or perhaps the owners had a loyalty punt at long odds but I'd rather let it win without my money than risk on such a huge unknown.

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote: deepdownrebel can run into the top 4 imo in the first with that low weight (mr goddens 4.5 kg allowance might help) i think. and I don't appear to be the only one, judgin by the lil bit of early support.

Don't want to put you off BUT genes suggest that this is bred for Show Jumping - 4 previous foals noted on Formgrids and not one win between them - Best of them managed 10 lengths behind while one foal ran three times for a combined 240 lengths behind!!!
I would rather go for NOODLE (one recorded sibling - winner and placed 4 times from 5 runs) or SENSE OF PURPOSE (half sister to 9 and 4 time winner - Makzoos, Boston Legal - half sister to BAH) who both have family ties which suggest speed and performance. HEAPS OF FUN is also bred to run but might need further while TIDE IS TURNING has shown winning form and with a rating of 84 should be in the exacta if the first timers are not ready.

Godden and Naidoo only have a 5% strike rate - at 40-1 you could take a chance but at 8-1 the odds are against you

Thanks. that's true - but wonder where the support is coming from? Bookie smashing?

My problem is that there are so many well-bred runners in this race, (MAD PUSHPA is a half sister to GR 2 winner DYNAMIC, JUD'S Express half sister to King Of Indians etc) that you are taking a HUGE GAMBLE on a horse that has a pedigree without legs with an appy that needs his 4kg's. Perhaps the horse is working like a bomb or perhaps the owners had a loyalty punt at long odds but I'd rather let it win without my money than risk on such a huge unknown.

only you could talk me off a winner like that cos I respect your game and tips, really not phased tho cos i had tide is turning for places and would have never backed rebel for a win anyway only would have had a place bet.

What do you think of blunderbuss in the third ?

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote: deepdownrebel can run into the top 4 imo in the first with that low weight (mr goddens 4.5 kg allowance might help) i think. and I don't appear to be the only one, judgin by the lil bit of early support.

Don't want to put you off BUT genes suggest that this is bred for Show Jumping - 4 previous foals noted on Formgrids and not one win between them - Best of them managed 10 lengths behind while one foal ran three times for a combined 240 lengths behind!!!
I would rather go for NOODLE (one recorded sibling - winner and placed 4 times from 5 runs) or SENSE OF PURPOSE (half sister to 9 and 4 time winner - Makzoos, Boston Legal - half sister to BAH) who both have family ties which suggest speed and performance. HEAPS OF FUN is also bred to run but might need further while TIDE IS TURNING has shown winning form and with a rating of 84 should be in the exacta if the first timers are not ready.

Godden and Naidoo only have a 5% strike rate - at 40-1 you could take a chance but at 8-1 the odds are against you

Thanks. that's true - but wonder where the support is coming from? Bookie smashing?

My problem is that there are so many well-bred runners in this race, (MAD PUSHPA is a half sister to GR 2 winner DYNAMIC, JUD'S Express half sister to King Of Indians etc) that you are taking a HUGE GAMBLE on a horse that has a pedigree without legs with an appy that needs his 4kg's. Perhaps the horse is working like a bomb or perhaps the owners had a loyalty punt at long odds but I'd rather let it win without my money than risk on such a huge unknown.

only you could talk me off a winner like that cos I respect your game and tips, really not phased tho cos i had tide is turning for places and would have never backed rebel for a win anyway only would have had a place bet.

What do you think of blunderbuss in the third ?

Sorry but I always only back on what I can see on paper not what I hear(rumours have killed many in this game) - If the risk is too high then I must back at the odds I want - In this case at 25/1 or better then why not but not at 7-1. Again sorry if I put you off but I stayed out as the unknown factors were overwhelming for me to have any type of calculated bet.
I really only like THE DEACON today as he's run against some fair sorts

Pirhobeta wrote: Littleblacknumber