Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

TheBluntPunt
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago - 9 years 8 months ago

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote: deepdownrebel can run into the top 4 imo in the first with that low weight (mr goddens 4.5 kg allowance might help) i think. and I don't appear to be the only one, judgin by the lil bit of early support.

Don't want to put you off BUT genes suggest that this is bred for Show Jumping - 4 previous foals noted on Formgrids and not one win between them - Best of them managed 10 lengths behind while one foal ran three times for a combined 240 lengths behind!!!
I would rather go for NOODLE (one recorded sibling - winner and placed 4 times from 5 runs) or SENSE OF PURPOSE (half sister to 9 and 4 time winner - Makzoos, Boston Legal - half sister to BAH) who both have family ties which suggest speed and performance. HEAPS OF FUN is also bred to run but might need further while TIDE IS TURNING has shown winning form and with a rating of 84 should be in the exacta if the first timers are not ready.

Godden and Naidoo only have a 5% strike rate - at 40-1 you could take a chance but at 8-1 the odds are against you

Thanks. that's true - but wonder where the support is coming from? Bookie smashing?

Last edit: 9 years 8 months ago by TheBluntPunt.

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Pirhobeta
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578834

Bushy wrote: Got our Filly VELVET ORCHID running today! Still might be a little on the short side for her, but still expecting a huge run from her!

break a leg...

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mr hawaii
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578835

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

TheBluntPunt wrote: deepdownrebel can run into the top 4 imo in the first with that low weight (mr goddens 4.5 kg allowance might help) i think. and I don't appear to be the only one, judgin by the lil bit of early support.

Don't want to put you off BUT genes suggest that this is bred for Show Jumping - 4 previous foals noted on Formgrids and not one win between them - Best of them managed 10 lengths behind while one foal ran three times for a combined 240 lengths behind!!!
I would rather go for NOODLE (one recorded sibling - winner and placed 4 times from 5 runs) or SENSE OF PURPOSE (half sister to 9 and 4 time winner - Makzoos, Boston Legal - half sister to BAH) who both have family ties which suggest speed and performance. HEAPS OF FUN is also bred to run but might need further while TIDE IS TURNING has shown winning form and with a rating of 84 should be in the exacta if the first timers are not ready.

Godden and Naidoo only have a 5% strike rate - at 40-1 you could take a chance but at 8-1 the odds are against you

Thanks. that's true - but wonder where the support is coming from? Bookie smashing?

My problem is that there are so many well-bred runners in this race, (MAD PUSHPA is a half sister to GR 2 winner DYNAMIC, JUD'S Express half sister to King Of Indians etc) that you are taking a HUGE GAMBLE on a horse that has a pedigree without legs with an appy that needs his 4kg's. Perhaps the horse is working like a bomb or perhaps the owners had a loyalty punt at long odds but I'd rather let it win without my money than risk on such a huge unknown.

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kristieN
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578837

All the best Bushy and Craig

BP: 15/3/1/10/1/2

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Dean321
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578839

Mixed doubles , singles and the treble

Tide is turning X Tiptol X Monte Christo

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dashing
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578842

Race 1 velvet orchid

Race 2 fly peg fly

Race 3 the deacon

Race 4 joyful mystery

Did a multiple I think the 4 have equally decent winning chances.

all the best

The best horse doesn't always win the race.

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mr hawaii
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578844

dashing wrote: Race 1 velvet orchid

Race 2 fly peg fly

Race 3 the deacon

Race 4 joyful mystery

Did a multiple I think the 4 have equally decent winning chances. all the best

I think THE DEACON may well be a banker

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Dean321
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578849

Tide is turning was fancied strongly on the last run and then there was a change to the Greyville pollytrack. I think it will run a big race today. .

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Karma
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578850

Pa- 2 x 10,12 x 1,10 x 1 x 3 x 6,9,11 x 4 - R120 10x

P6- 1,2,7,10,12 x 1,10 x 1,2,3,4,11 x 3 x 1,2,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 x 4,8 -R110 10%

Best of luck to all on what looks like a brilliant card imo...

Are you living your life or waiting to die?

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Bob Brogan
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Re: Scottsville Sunday 27/9/15

9 years 8 months ago

#578851

Dean321 wrote: Tide is turning was fancied strongly on the last run and then there was a change to the Greyville pollytrack. I think it will run a big race today. .

Stiffer 1200m might not suit imo

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